"That had not occurred to us, Dude"
Let's break this down from a couple perspectives:
- Historical Record -
- If one looks at the last nine years, LA has never won less than 11 games. On average, LA wins just under 12 games per year over that span. Over the last six years, LA has appeared in the 8A Finals four times. LA NOT winning 11 games would be earth-shattering.
- If one reviews the similar record for HC over the same nine year span, one will find that HC has won 11 games exactly once, but that occurred before I arrived in this glorious state in 2010, (let's call that Before Cap or BC for short,) so that doesn't count.
- Probability based on 2017 performance to date - In order to evaluate the solidity of one's predictive position, we will use your best friend's favorite methodology: probability. As such, we will use two national rating service's predictor models as our base, then convert to probability using the spread-to-moneyline converter from the Sports Book Review (SBR.) While SBR provides guidance for both NFL and NCAA point spread conversion, they provide no such conversion for high school football. Don't worry, I have contacted their offices and made the suggestion to save you the call. So let's use the NCAA converter and look at those numbers
- Calpreps - Calpreps has had a difficult go of it this year for me. Calpreps uses historical record as one factor in their predictions, but also relies on coach's enthusiasm as measured by preseason hype form submitted to the calpreps staff. Looking at the IL state rankings on Calpreps suggests they lack certain insight into the IL field, possibly caused by something as simple as a unsubmitted hype form.. For instance, I would imagine few in IL would take Rochester or Sterling in a face-to-face matchup with LA, yet both are considered far superior to your beloved based on the latest rankings. I wouldn't worry too much though as I gave up on Calpreps when my beloved didn't crack the Top 25 preseason and only recently found their way into the Top 20. Anyhoo, Calpreps lists the predicted score for this weekend, on a neutral field, as LA 26 - HC 17. If one properly considered the intimidation factor of the Wilmette faithful (well, certainly the surrounding 31 zip codes anyway,) that spread would be a bit higher. Using the spread-to-moneyline converter for a nine point spread using the NCAA table, we find a 25% probability that HC wins said game on a neutral field.
- If we look at the Massey Score Predictor as found in the USATodayHSS website, one that allows factoring of home field advantage, we arrive at a predicted spread of 16 points. Converting a 16 point spread to probability we arrive at an 11.5% probability of HC victory.
So, if I am reading your premise correcting, your belief is that by correctly predicting a win that carries anywhere from a 75%-88.5% probability of occurrence, along with being the inflection point of change in the modern IL football history (the Year 8 AC to be exact) that would mark the end of one of the most successful runs of 11+ win seasons in the history (cap's history) of 8A (don't get offended
@MS4EVER, I said "one of",) while also marking a turning point in the gridiron fortunes of our friends at HC by achieving success not seen since before there was ever an Allen under center, (this is my attempt at the longest sentence ever on the Edgy Board), you deserve praise and deference?
Let me see what I can do to rally some deference.
"Leads? Leads? I'll go back and check with the boys back in the crime lab. They have teams working in shifts....*shaking head incredulously* leads"
