I think that is somewhat fair. I don't like your, "what if he hadn't fumbled" take though. What if Snell hadn't fumbled when we had the ball? Maybe we get the first down and continue to march down the field and score a touchdown? We can play that what if game, but it is really just a back and forth.
In terms of conservative... I am somewhat torn on that. UK was averaging about 5 yards per carry and rushed for about 130 more yards than Louisville averages. So, I don't mind running the ball. However, UL was most definitely crowding the box with 7 or 8 men and taking away the middle. I don't know that we needed a deep throw after the McClain interception near the endzone, but just getting the ball to someone in some space probably would have helped to loosen the UL defense late in the game.
On first down at the 19, after the Kemp run on 3rd and one, I think was a perfect chance for UK to get a pretty solid play and keep the chains moving with a throw. We were in the pistol formation with Kemp behind Johnson and an H-back, looks like Hart. I think if UK fakes the handoff to Kemp and then looks for a little dump over the middle to Hart then we pick up 10-15 yards and the UL linebackers will be forced to hesitate a bit before being so quick to stop the run. Instead, we run the read option and Kemp gets no gain.
I am personally still torn on Stoops. After the first three games I wanted him gone. Our defense looked historically bad. All three teams ran through our defense like it wasn't even there, and two of those teams were not power 5 teams. However, it did improve immensely (until the UT game when we regressed for a game). We now finally seem to have a pretty competent offense. I'm not sure that Stoops is the guy to get us to the top of the SEC, but his results to finish this year have at least given me reason to continue to give him a chance and see where he can take us. I have to say what really makes me nervous is when we lose a lot of the current juniors. Johnson, Baker, Boom, Mosier, Haynes, Meyers, Meadows, Hart, Badet, Bone, Walker, Juice, MacGinnis, Bell, Elam, and Randolph. That is a whole lot of big time contributors. We have time to find and develop the talent to replace them, but it sure is a big time class that has a whole lot of talent and I am curious to see if Stoops can find the talent behind them to help us continue this success.