Key #1 tonight is, of course, to just win, baby.
But with the gauntlet yet to come over the next two weeks, the injury issues with Roper (whom I assume is not playing) and Berry (whom I assume is, but maybe not as many minutes as he otherwise would), and the travel/quick turnaround leading up to this one, my keys #2 and #2b are as follows:
- Get off to a hot shooting start. Build an early lead. Can't count on the typical load-bearers to be able to go full bore for 36 minutes tonight. So if you can jump out in the first 6-10 minutes of the first half, such that you can get some of those guys off the floor for significant chunks of the last 10 minutes of the first half, that would be really good. Same deal in the second half - come out guns blazing. If this one follows the same pattern as Indiana - big lead that gets whittled down to a small one that we hold in the end - but without us having to keep Buie/Audige/Beran out there for 35+ minutes apiece? That's a good. This is truly a "just win on the road" game versus a Kenpom resume builder.
- Barnhizer, Verhoeven, Martinelli, maybe even Dixon - be ready to play. Brooks has established himself as a true rotation piece, so I feel comfortable with his ability to play 30+ minutes tonight as needed. But Verhoeven simply must not get himself into the same quick foul trouble. Beran can't be asked to be the primary 4 and the backup 5, especially when Barnhizer may need to play as the de facto 3rd/4th guard in the rotation (depending on Berry's status). That means Verhoeven (and Nicholson, of course, but he's gonna be out there regardless) needs to keep himself available for 15-20 minutes tonight. Likewise, if Martinelli can soak up 6-10 minutes, that's a major help to Beran and Brooks as well. This is more if Berry can't go his usual complement of minutes, but Dixon came on for a few second at the end of the first half against Wisconsin so that Audige didn't pick up his 3rd foul. If we can get him out there even for a couple of minutes before media timeouts so that one of Buie or Chase can get some rest, or to provide some relief for Berry, that's huge too. And all of this is so much more doable if we give ourselves a cushion.
All of these thoughts on minutes distribution are also informed by my own Covid recovery experience, which is that I wasn't back to full stamina for quite a few weeks after I was no longer sick. While I'm not a college athlete, I also wasn't testing myself playing college basketball games.
I'd like to think that we would be able to play without such limitations on Saturday, as we'll have had a more normal amount of rest and we'll be at home. But Nebraska is a better team, playing in Lincoln can be tricky, and the combo of managing injuries and short rest time (plus Covid recovery!) means that everyone who has seen the floor this year at all has to be ready to go. Let's hope we come out fast and give Collins some options to manage the game.
Just win, baby.