Somewhat disagree. You're not going to win it all in 2026, but you can certainly cause a significant amount of damage. Cignetti got Indiana to the playoff in year one and he inherited far less with the Hoosiers than the next guy is going to inherit here.
The schedule is about as weak as one could possibly hope for. OOC is a joke. The top 3 opponents are Michigan, Washington and USC. Highly unlikely any of those are top 10 matchups. Unlikely all 3 are even top 25. There's still no excuse to drop games against Wisconsin, Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota, NW or Maryland. If we do it means the new staff did a really poor job in the portal/retaining the current roster, and doesn't bode well for the future.
Dropping 4+ games against next years schedule would put the new coach in a very deep hole.