To get a little more realistic, I think we should look at the '16-'17 tournament team and Carmody's unfortunate '03-'04, 8-8 team. Assuming a great player won't sign on for awhile, these give us good templates for minimums for strong NU teams.
For a little definition, I'll say there's three types of players NU needs in its rotation:
1) Great - Unfortunately, during my time, I think there's only been one - maybe two - players in this category, Eschmeyer and maaaaaaaaybe Shurna. So I'm assuming the great player won't be here in the short term.
2) Good - BMac, Law, Pardon and maybe Lindsey on the tourney team. Jitim, VV and maybe Parker and Hachad on the '04 team.
3) Role Players /Pieces- To me, these are rotational players who no one would call a good all-around player. But they add value. On the '04 team, I'm tempted to put Parker abd Hachd here. After that, Davor and ... well, that's it.
For the '17 team, this was a strength. You had Sanjay, Taphorn, Brown and Skelly. A bit of quantity-over-quality approach.
Without that great player, for me, the '17 team shows a decent realistic template - four good players and 3 or 4 pieces/role players [4/4]. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the Carmody teams had a number of those role players to go along with even three good players .
And look at any of the NU teams maybe going back to Byrdsong. Do any of them have this 4/4 mix? I don't see it
I might be playing semantics, but to get two "good" recruits for - let's say - 3 out of 4 years requires nearly perfect recruiting at NU. Six well-evaluated choices ... no injuries, no transfers, no grade issues. When has that ever happened at NU?
You need those 4 workable, role players to fill in any gaps that are bound to happen with the good players.
I think Carmody was stronger than CC at getting the good players. The opposite is true for Collins. A consistent (key word) mix of the 4 good players and 4 role players would be a realistically good step forward for the next guy.