Democrats have a huge hill to climb to beat Trump in '20. That hill is the Black vote. Despite media claims that Biden is a solid choice for most Black voters, current polls do not support that analysis.
Here is how the Black vote has gone for Democrats in recent elections
(source National review article Aug 19th)
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/donald-trump-black-vote
- Dukakis 89 percent, Bush 10 percent
- Clinton 83 percent, Bush 10 percent
- Clinton 84 percent, Dole 12 percent
- Gore 90 percent, Bush 9 percent
- Kerry 88 percent, Bush 11 percent
- Obama 95 percent, McCain 4 percent
- Obama 93 percent, Romney 6 percent
- Clinton 89 percent, Trump 8 percent
excerpt:
Hillary Clinton’s percentage of the black vote was only a few points lower than Obama’s. But Clinton didn’t come close to replicating Obama’s black turnout numbers. It’s estimated she received nearly 4 million fewer black votes than Obama.
Democrats know that to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and other former “Blue Wall” states, they need to get more than 90 percent of the black vote and dramatically increase black turnout numbers. And Democratic presidential candidates know that, depending on the state, blacks constitute 22–40 percent of Democratic primary voters. Accordingly, the claims of racism and white supremacy promise to intensify. This is especially so when so many of the policy prescriptions touted by Democratic candidates — from health care for illegal immigrants to the Green New Deal — are either opposed by blacks or met with indifference"
That is the hill they must climb, and Joe Biden may not be strong enough to pull them up.
Consider:
- Blacks in overwhelming numbers support school choice vouchers, Democrats and Biden oppose them
- Blacks in overwhelming numbers support neighborhood based community banking, Democrats and Biden oppose them
- Blacks in overwhelming numbers support minority owned small businesses in tax free "enterprise zones" Democrats and Biden oppose them
- Blacks by large majorities support Faith based non profit 501(C)3 social services Biden and Democrats oppose them
- Blacks by near unanimous numbers support restricting Government paid health care to legal U.S. citizens and favor strict enforcement against illegal immigration, Democrats and Biden oppose them
- Blacks by large majorities support prison sentencing reforms for 1st time offenses while Democrats and Biden oppose them
- Blacks like most Americans support lower individual income tax rates and overall tax reforms while Democrats and Biden oppose them
- In a shocking surprise, large congregations of Black Church attending members support ending taxpayer assisted abortions and are actually Pro-Life while Democrats and Joe Biden oppose banning tax payer funded on demand abortions.
Pro Lifers aren't racists who only want to save White Babies
https://thefederalist.com/2018/06/29/no-pro-lifers-arent-racists-want-save-white-babies/
excerpt:
First of all, pro-life conservatives are very well aware abortions target non-white people more heavily. Vox, hardly a right-wing propaganda site, recently ran an entire expose on “
Abortion as black genocide.” The tagline is, “A new documentary examines how fears of ‘black genocide’ became part of mainstream anti-abortion activism.”
So on major issues from taxes, to school choice, to abortions, Democrats and Joe Biden
oppose what vast majorities of voting Blacks
support. Donald Trump is well aware of this, and that is why he is so aggressively going after those Black voters.
There is an excellent chance he gets them too. Anything less than 85-90% Black support for Democrats in this next election cycle means certain defeat for Democrats. Democrats know that too.