Toggle sidebar

Current scenarios for the double-bye

SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
Ok, that's the first one we needed (or at least helped us more than the alternative).
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
The predictable outcome would be PSU/Purdue/IU/IA winning.

But it would also be Rutgers winning.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
Oh, and I like Shrewsberry. I don't say that often about opposing Big Ten coaches.
 
N

NUCat320

Senior
Dec 4, 2005
19,469
495
0
So,
Illinois is headed toward a loss (like they were against NU…)

If that holds, NU is win-and-in if either
Iowa loses at home to Nebraska, or
Indiana wins at home against Michigan.

PSU was the one we needed.
 
N

NUThump

Redshirt
May 29, 2001
1,321
21
38
CappyNU said:
So, here's how the day will go:

Games start at 11am central.
By 1:30, we will know if the 2-seed is still feasible (PSU win).
By 2pm, we will know if we have clinched a double bye with a win over Rutgers (PSU and Purdue win).
By 3:30, we will know if we absolutely need IU to win to avoid being eliminated by tipoff (MD/Purdue/Iowa wins, PSU/Illinois/Iowa wins, Maryland/Illinois wins), or if we will have already clinched a double bye with a win over Rutgers (Maryland/Purdue/Nebraska wins, PSU/Illinois/Nebraska wins)
By 6:30, it's Just Win, Baby.
Click to expand...
First one off the list breaks in favor of NU
 
C

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,167
346
83
Alright! Here's where we stand after game 1:

Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 10 scenarios (90.1% - 66.6% 2nd, 14.4% 3rd, 9.9% 4th)
Indiana - 8 scenarios (66.0% - 8.3% 2nd, 39.5% 3rd, 18.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Michigan State - 8 scenarios (59.9% - 9.9% 3rd, 50.0% 4th)
Michigan - 8 scenarios (34.0% - 5.1% 2nd, 23.1% 3rd, 5.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
NU - 7 scenarios (32.0% - 18.6% 2nd, 5.6% 3rd, 7.9% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Illinois - 7 scenarios (17.2% - 1.4% 2nd, 7.5% 3rd, 8.3% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Purdue
Maryland - 16 scenarios (49.0% - 8.5% 2nd, 36.9% 3rd, 3.6% 4th) ELIMINATED

Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed - one of the following combinations:
Purdue over IL, IU over Michigan; (17.7%)
IL over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, IU over Michigan. (0.9%)

To get the 3rd seed - one of the following combinations:
Illinois over Purdue, Iowa over Nebraska, Indiana over Michigan; (3.8%)
Purdue over Illinois, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (1.7%)

To get the 4th seed - one of the following combinations:
Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (7.4%)
Illinois over Purdue, Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana; (0.5%)

We will be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips if one of the following occurs (1 scenario, 2.0%):
Illinois beats Purdue, Iowa beats Nebraska, Michigan beats IU (2.0%)
 
C

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,167
346
83
Additional breakdown:
After Game 1, we can end up anywhere from the 2-9 seed, except for 6.

If PSU/Purdue, we can get the 2, 3, 4, 7 or 9 seeds. If PSU/Illinois, it's 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa, 2, 4, 7, 9. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska, 2, 3, 7, 9.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa, 3, 5, 8, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska, 2, 4, 8, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/IU, 2, 9. If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/IU, 3, 9.
If PSU/Illinois or Purdue/Nebraska/IU, 2, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 4, 7. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 3, 7.
If PSU/Illinois/Iowa/Michigan, 5, 8. If PSU/Illinois/Nebraska/Michigan, 4, 8.

If we lose to Rutgers, we have a 17.8% chance of the 7th seed, 4.7% chance of the 8th seed, and 43.6% chance of the 9th seed.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
Edey is a turnover machine against double-teams. He may be the biggest guy in the conference, but he's definitely not the best.
 
N

NU Houston

Junior
Apr 12, 2010
6,370
321
83
Inexperience by Purdue's guards showing itself again. Someone needs to be aggressive and take a shot. Also, take care of the ball against the press.
 
P

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
5,303
0
0
SmellyCat said:
Slightly different question, because "best?" and "who would you rather have?" aren't quite the same, but I'd take TJD.
Click to expand...
I just realized you weren't specific in saying "Edey's not the best" - the best big or the best player?

Pickett and Jahmir Young are both excellent, but Edey brings a dimension that no one else does. Quite literally.

If TJD were "all that", they'd have a better record.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
PurpleWhiteBoy said:
I just realized you weren't specific in saying "Edey's not the best" - the best big or the best player?

Pickett and Jahmir Young are both excellent, but Edey brings a dimension that no one else does. Quite literally.

If TJD were "all that", they'd have a better record.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with any of this, and I wouldn't fault anyone for picking Edey for National and Conference POTY (though I love Jalen Wilson at Kansas too), but I just like TJD's versatility and poise. Feel like you can get in Edey's head.

That last shot he made though was nice.
 
B

benoitdenizetl

Redshirt
Dec 27, 2003
2,237
32
0
So now with Purdue winning, we need Indiana to beat Michigan? If we also win, we get second seed? And if we lose, we could end up with 9th seed? Wild.
 
N

NU Houston

Junior
Apr 12, 2010
6,370
321
83
Edey is not going to be a successful NBA player. He already has trouble with the double and triple teams at this level. Plus his range is so limited that he passes up open looks from 10-15 feet. NBA bigs take and make those shots.
 
N

NUThump

Redshirt
May 29, 2001
1,321
21
38
CappyNU said:
So, here's how the day will go:

Games start at 11am central.
By 1:30, we will know if the 2-seed is still feasible (PSU win).
By 2pm, we will know if we have clinched a double bye with a win over Rutgers (PSU and Purdue win).
By 3:30, we will know if we absolutely need IU to win to avoid being eliminated by tipoff (MD/Purdue/Iowa wins, PSU/Illinois/Iowa wins, Maryland/Illinois wins), or if we will have already clinched a double bye with a win over Rutgers (Maryland/Purdue/Nebraska wins, PSU/Illinois/Nebraska wins)
By 6:30, it's Just Win, Baby.
Click to expand...
Right on time. So, we clinch a double bye with a win.
 
P

ParisCat_rivals

Redshirt
Feb 5, 2002
1,334
43
32
I think we’ve clinched top 4 regardless of IU vs Michigan, but we get #2 if Indiana wins. All, of course, contingent on beating Rutgers.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
I think he's saying Michigan wins, and NU STILL gets a double-bye with a win. They just won't get the #2 seed.
 
G

gradeck

Redshirt
Mar 22, 2011
164
3
12
Indiana defeats Michigan: NU is #2 with a win, #9 with a loss. (Iowa-Nebraska irrelevant).

Michigan defeats Indiana:
-If Iowa defeats Nebraska: NU is #4 with a win, #7 with a loss.
-If Nebraska defeats Iowa: NU Is #3 with a win, #7 with a loss.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
The best scenario is still Nebraska and Indiana winning (and NU of course), giving NU and Indiana a tie for second place with NU winning the tiebreaker. If Michigan and Iowa win, NU would still get a double-bye with the win and would be in a three-way tie for second place.
 
C

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,167
346
83
Sweating James Mcavoy GIF


Here's where we stand after game 2:

Purdue - locked in at #1
Iowa - 6 scenarios (93.5% - 62.8% 2nd, 18.2% 3rd, 12.5% 4th)
Indiana - 4 scenarios (66.0% - 8.3% 2nd, 39.5% 3rd, 18.2% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Michigan
Michigan State - 6 scenarios (72.5% - 12.5% 3rd, 59.9% 4th)
Michigan - 4 scenarios (34.0% - 5.1% 2nd, 23.1% 3rd, 5.8% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to IU
NU - 4 scenarios (34.0% - 22.4% 2nd, 2.2% 3rd, 9.4% 4th) - Eliminated with loss to Rutgers
Illinois - 7 scenarios (17.2% - 1.4% 2nd, 7.5% 3rd, 8.3% 4th) - ELIMINATED
Maryland - 16 scenarios (49.0% - 8.5% 2nd, 36.9% 3rd, 3.6% 4th) ELIMINATED

Assuming we beat Rutgers to get the double bye, our rooting interests are as follows:

To get the 2nd seed:
IU over Michigan; (22.4%)

To get the 3rd seed:
Nebraska over Iowa, Michigan over Indiana (2.2%)

To get the 4th seed:
Purdue over Illinois, Iowa over Nebraska, Michigan over Indiana; (9.4%)

We will NOT be eliminated from the double bye before our game even tips!

We can end up as 2, 3, 4, 7, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/IU, 2, 9.

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/Michigan, 4, 7. If PSU/Purdue/Nebraska/Michigan, 3, 7.

If we lose to Rutgers, we have a 22.4% chance of the 7th seed, and 43.6% chance of the 9th seed.
 
N

NUCat320

Senior
Dec 4, 2005
19,469
495
0
CappyNU said:
Additional breakdown:
At the start of the day, we can end up anywhere from the 2-9 seed.



If PSU/Purdue, we can get the 2, 3, 4, 7 or 9

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa, 2, 4, 7, 9. If

If PSU/Purdue/Iowa/IU, 2, 9. If
Click to expand...
Looks like NU will playing for either the #2 or #9 seed. What a world.
 
C

CappyNU

Junior
Mar 2, 2004
5,167
346
83
In addition, I have the great misfortune to be traveling to Sweden tonight for work in the middle of our game.....so updates may be quite sporadic depending on the quality of Lufthansa's wifi.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
If IU wins, NU will get either a second seed or ninth seed.

If UM wins, NU will get either a three or a seven.

Right?
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
Things broke our way so far. It does not make much difference to be 2, 3 or 4. I don’t even think avoiding Purdue is a big deal, but we have avoided that potential scenario anyway.

Small detail to take care of: winning our game.
 
stpaulcat

stpaulcat

Senior
May 29, 2001
35,192
832
113
SmellyCat said:
If IU wins, NU will get either a second seed or ninth seed.

If UM wins, NU will get either a three or a seven.

Right?
Click to expand...
How is it remotely possible to be 7th or 9th seed?? If NU wins, they will be tied at 12-8 with Indiana or Michigan, for second place, with Michigan taking precedence in that scenario with 2 wins over NU.
 
SmellyCat

SmellyCat

Junior
May 29, 2001
7,290
340
83
stpaulcat said:
How is it remotely possible to be 7th or 9th seed?? If NU wins, they will be tied at 12-8 with Indiana or Michigan, for second place, with Michigan taking precedence in that scenario with 2 wins over NU.
Click to expand...

The seventh or ninth is if NU loses. They'd be 11-9 and tied for fourth place with five other teams.

If they win, they'll be tied for second place with just one other team.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom