Darkhorse Derby 2026

PortaJ

Freshman
Mar 9, 2026
26
60
13
125- 18 - Spencer Moore - ILL
133 - 25 - Will Betancourt - Rider
141 - 18 - Carter Nogle - Air Force
149 - 17 - Lucas Kapusta - Lock Haven
157 - 17 - Luke Mechler - WIS
165 - 22- Matthew Olguin - ORST
174 - 18 - Colin Kelly - ILL
184 - 19 - Jared McGill - Edinboro
197 - 27 - Gabe Arnold - Iowa
Heavy - 18 - Christian Carroll - WYO
 

mcpat

All-American
Mar 12, 2021
1,766
7,109
113
Ryder shoulder is messed up might want to pick someone else. I like the Carroll pick heard he was sick at big 12 so he should look better this week
I knew he was hurt but figured if he can find a way to wrestle thru it, his ceiling was high enough for the pick. I wasn’t crazy about the other options. Are you saying it’s so bad you’d recommend against it?
 

Corby2

All-American
Jul 14, 2025
3,438
7,416
113
I knew he was hurt but figured if he can find a way to wrestle thru it, his ceiling was high enough for the pick. I wasn’t crazy about the other options. Are you saying it’s so bad you’d recommend against it?
His shoulder came out at big 12s its not good he's gonna be reluctant to attack he can't get extended and sprawled on without it coming out or he's gotta let go of the leg. I hope he can AA but his path is difficult with him not being healthy
 
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Reslo1

Senior
Oct 26, 2025
125
986
93
Fun idea! Let's go with this:

125: Cooper Flynn #26 CHAT
133: Braxton Brown #23 MD
141: Julian Tagg #20 SDSU
149: Lucas Kapusta #17 LHU
157: DJ McGee #18 GMU
165: Matthew Olguin #22 ORST
174: Daschle Lamer #20 ORST
184: Jake Dailey #18 UNC
197: Zayne Lehman #19 OHIO
HWT: Christian Carroll #18 WYO
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
His shoulder came out at big 12s its not good he's gonna be reluctant to attack he can't get extended and sprawled on without it coming out or he's gotta let go of the leg. I hope he can AA but his path is difficult with him not being healthy
Where are your entries?
 

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
125 #19 Terukina UNC
133 #26 Shawver RUT
141 #20 Tagg SDSU
149 #22 Rivera PRIN
157 #21 Millard MN
165 #20 Whalen PRIN
174 #22 Augustine PITT
184 #24 Curtis COL
197 #27 Arnold IA
Hwt #18 Carroll WYO
At 174 Augustine is the 23 seed, Boarman is 22. Which would you like?
 

OzarkLion

Senior
Oct 11, 2021
123
418
63
125 - 23 - Rivera - WIS
133 - 17 - Davis - GW
141 - 25 - Crook - VT
149 - 19 - Herman - UALR
157 - 21 - Millard - MINN
165 - 18 - Filipowicz - ARMY
174 - 20 - Lamer - ORST
184 - 23 - Garza - POLY
197 - 27 - Arnold - IOWA
285 - 18 - Carroll - WYO
 
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gimb14

All-American
May 3, 2022
3,988
7,233
113
If his shoulder came out 4 time in the conference championships, it isn't staying in at NCAAs
As someone who's dislocated his shoulder in the teens....Once it's out once, it's out a lot. I did it once by sneezing. I did it once while vacuuming. I did it once jumping into a pool (was out before I hit the water). He's got better doctors and treatment than I'll ever have, but no way it's gonna hold up this tournament.
 

86PSUPaul

All-Conference
Aug 17, 2017
400
1,217
93
125- 17 Jett Strickland WVU
133- 18 Gunner Andrick WVU
141- 21 Tyler Wells OKLA
149- 19 Brock Herman UALR
157- 19 Kai Owen COL
165- 20 Ty Whalen PRINC
174- 23 Luca Augustine PITT
184- 19 Jared McGill EDIN
197- 20 Wyatt Ingham WIS
285- 19 Nate Schon DREX
 
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johnstownsteel

All-Conference
Jun 3, 2025
561
3,260
93
125 Spencer Moore- ILLINOIS
133-Will Bentencourt-RIder
141-Nash Singleton -Oregon St.
149-Gabe Willochell-Wyoming
157-Charlie Millard -Minnesota
165-Mathew Olguin-Oregon St.
174-Luca Augustine-Pitt
184-Brian Soldano-Oklahoma
197-Evan Bates-Missouri
285-Christian Carroll-Wyoming
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
Entries are beginning to slow down a bit so I thought I would pause and share a statistical update.

So far we have a total of 35 competitors duking it out to be the king of prognosticators. BWI leads the way with 20 entrants, followed by HR with 10, 34AC with 3 and TKR with 2.

Be Not Afraid
The boldest among us is @PUR158. He is not afraid to scan down the seeds to look for the value play. With an average seed among his ten wrestlers of 23.1, he is a full 4.3 slots behind the most conservative swami @parchy who comes in at an average seed of 18.8.



Diversification is Key
No two users picked the same lineup. So hopefully there will be no tie to break as I had not thought about that. But if there is I think I will go with lowest seeded wrestler to score points.

Who Ya Got?
Among the 170 eligible wrestlers seeded #17-#33, you saw fit to bless 79 of them with your statement of confidence. But this is a popularity contest after all, and the most popular is Wyoming's Christian Carroll, favored by 22 of you. Minnesota's Charlie Millard is not far behind with 19 fanboys/girls on these forums.

There were 17 wrestlers who garnered a single vote of confidence. PUR158 and @sdvike chose three of these each. Rugged individualists, those two.



Can't We All Just Get Along?
By weight, 285 was where we agreed the most as only 4 of the 17 wrestlers garnered support.

At the opposite end of the scale is 133. There is zero consensus in the top half of those seeds, so why should there any consensus in the bottom half?



We Get Nowhere Without the Team
Of the 70 teams entered in the tournament, 47 are proud to claim entrants in the 2026 Dark Horse Derby. I fully expect this to serve as the motivation for many of these wrestlers to pull off upsets and then acknowledge their forum supporters by username in their post match interviews.



Stupid Is As Stupid Does
Normally I would provide updates after each of the six sessions. But I did something dumb this year and agreed to speak at a conference without looking at the calendar first. So my plan is to do a single update for both Thursday sessions followed by individual updates per session thereafter. Wish me luck.
 
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Shifty15

Senior
Nov 4, 2016
209
422
63
125: Jett Strickenberger WVU
133: Will Bentancourt RID
141: Julian Tagg SDSU
149: Brock Herman UALR
157: Charlie Millard MINN
165: Gunner Flippowicsz ARMY
174: Lenny Pinto RUT
184: Zack Ryder OKST
197: Rune Lawrence WVU
HWT: Christian Carroll WYO
 

impalanut

Redshirt
Jan 1, 2015
29
24
3
125: 18. Moore. ILL
133: 17. Davis. GW
141: 19. Drury. UVU
149: 18. Harney. Morg
157: 17. Mechler. WIS
165: 18. Filipiwicz. Army
174: 20. Lamer. Or St
184: 20. Soldano. OK
197: 19. Lehman. Ohio
285: 19. Schol. Drex
 

gimb14

All-American
May 3, 2022
3,988
7,233
113
125 – 18 - Spencer Moore – ILL
133 – 28 - Garrett Grice – ISU
141 – 17 - Caedyn Ricciardi – NAVY
149 – 21 - Gabe Willochell – WYO
157 – 21 - Charlie Millard – MINN
165 – 18 - Gunner Filipowicz – ARMY
174 – 17 - Jared Simma – UNI
184 – 17 - Ian Bush – WVU
197 – 20 - Wyatt Ingham – WIS
285 – 18 - Christian Carroll - WYO
 

Nitlion1986

All-Conference
Apr 13, 2024
1,571
4,681
113
125 – 18 - Spencer Moore – ILL
133 – 17 - TK Davis – GW
141 – 28 - Pierson Manville –ASU
149 – 19 - Brock Herman – UALR
157 – 21 - Charlie Millard – MINN
165 – 19 - Noah Mulvaney – BUCK
174 – 24 - Garrett Thompson –OHIO
184 – 21 - Tomas Brooker - APP
197 – 19 - Zane Brooker - OHIO
285 – 18 - Christian Carroll - WYO
 
Jun 26, 2001
19
73
13
This is something I did for the last two tournaments on Intermat that a lot of people found interesting. It creates an incentive to think about and watch the guys who generally do not wind up on the podium. It acknowledges that their struggle is every bit as real even if their recognition generally is not.

  • The idea is that everyone picks 1 wrestler per weight (10 total wrestlers) who is seeded in the 17 - 33 range. No wrestlers seeded 1 - 16 are eligible.

We will use regular tournament scoring to determine who has the strongest lineup of darkhorses at the conclusion of the tournament.

  • If you would like to make my life more easy in your post use the following format for your entry:

Weight - Seed - Wrestler - School

For example, if you were interested in all #17 seeds it would look like this:

125 – 17 - Jett Strickenberger – WVU
133 – 17 - TK Davis – GW
141 – 17 - Caedyn Ricciardi – NAVY
149 – 17 - Lucas Kapusta – LH
157 – 17 - Luke Mechler – WIS
165 – 17 - Braeden Scoles – ILL
174 – 17 - Jared Simma – UNI
184 – 17 - Ian Bush – WVU
197 – 17 - Dillon Bechtold – BUCK
285 – 17 - Vincent Mueller - COL

One caveat. I will not be around as much this year during the tournament as I was in past years due to my own stupidity, so my scoring updates will be a little less frequent.

I will be posting this on all four on3 boards.
125 – 17 - Jett Strickenberger – WVU
133 – 23 - Braxton Brown - MD
141 – 20 - Julian Tagg - SDSU
149 – 17 - Lucas Kapusta – LH
157 – 17 - Luke Mechler – WIS
165 – 17 - Braeden Scoles – ILL
174 – 18 - Collin Kelly - ILL
184 – 22- Zack Ryder - OSU
197 – 21 - Rune Lawrence - WVI
285 – 20 - Dayton Pitzer - sPitt
 

Random4598375

All-Conference
Jan 10, 2020
591
1,704
93
125 (23) Nicolar Rivera (WIS) 18-7
133 (23) Braxton Brown (MD) 17-9
141 (18) Carter Nogle (AF) 25-8
149 (20) Chance Lamer (NEB) 17-8
157 (21) Charlie Millard (MINN) 18-9
165 (18) Gunner Filipowicz (ARMY) 19-6
174 (19) Logan Messer (GMU) 26-6
184 (17) Ian Bush (WVU) 19-10
197 (27) Gabe Arnold (IOWA) 18-7
285 (26) Luke Luffman (ILL) 14-7
 

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
We closed on Thursday morning with 47 total entries - 46 of those are real and 1 is a what if. Given the struggles @SlipperyPete had nailing down his lineup I decided to test the grade school teacher warning that you should stick with your first answer, so I kept his original lineup and his revised lineup. We will see if Mrs. Crabapple was right.

Pole Position
@johnstownsteel races out to the early lead by getting points from 9 of his 10 dark horses. What did he know and when did he know it?

But the race is still too close to call. With the likes of @parchy, and @Crablegs1 just a half point behind, and another 4 entrants within 2 points it is still anyone's game.



Coach of the Year
Tom Ryan's people reached out to me this morning from the team bus. They said that after seeing @topc22blue's coaching performance in the first two rounds of the all important 2026 DHD - ALL 10 Dark Horses basking in the light - the coach would not feel right keeping the B1G COTY trophy. I assume the topc stands for Top Coach?

Fun Facts
  • No one lost more than half of their wrestlers in the first two rounds. Good work everyone.
  • I kinda suck at this.
  • ASU's Colton Hawks is only the second #29 seed to make the quarterfinals. He ties Caleb Fish who made the quarters as a #29 seed at 165 in 2023. Fish did not make the semis - falling 4-10 to #5 Quincy Monday. Hawks will face similar long odds when he faces #5 Joey Novak who is coming off a pair of pinfalls.
  • 165 has the most Dark Horse Heroes still alive. At this stage if everything goes chalk the #25 - #33 would be eliminated. But at 165 6 of them are still alive and kicking.
  • 174 is at the other end of the spectrum with 8 of the bottom 9 seeds already done for the weekend.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
Session 3 was some fun. As always there was a lot of Dark Horse on Dark Horse crime.

Achieving Simplification
Like any good mystery we are getting to the part where we achieve simplification. After starting with 170 Dark Horse candidates all but 14 have been taken to the glue factory.

With only 12 wrestlers alive at any weight each of our heroes are defying the odds at this point of the tournament.

And it is the big boys leading the way, with 285 and 197 having the most still alive.



Heading Into The Home Stretch
As our horses make the turn, it is Chance Lamer leading the pack for home. With 10 points scored he is running away from Dayton Pitzer in second place.



The Standings
With today's action there has been a big shakeup in the standings.

@Kiddagger311 takes over the lead from @johnstownsteel who fell all the way to a tie for 16th place. Ha, that guy must not know much. Oh, wait.... there is some jabroni who goes by @Wrestleknownothing. That dude is really putting the nothing in knowledge.

The Kid should not get too comfortable though. @Crablegs1 and @parchy maintain the next two spots again. And with 6 wrestlers still alive crabbie is looking dangerous.

 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
It is a three man race.



And a three horse race.



With 1.5 points separating the top 3 it comes down to which horses are still alive. To keep this interesting no wrestler who is still wrestling is on all three remaining contending teams.

There is a combination of outcomes that will put @topc22blue on top, a different combination that will put @Rock-man on top, and a third combination that will see @Kiddagger311 leap frog them both for the win. As the English say, it is all to play for.
 

Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
2026 FINAL DARK HORSE DERBY STANDINGS

With an eye for talent like no other and the ability to put together a complete lineup that is rivaled by few, all hail @topc22blue our 2026 Dark Horse Derby Champion. Like PSU he has locked up the title before the finals even start.

Topc, I highly recommend you put this prestigious title at the top of your resume when interviewing for a top recruiting coordinator position. After all with nothing but #17 - #33 seeded wrestlers it looks like you will finish in the top 10 team scores.

To put this in context, last year's winner had 34.5 points. I do not recall the total from the prior, but it was less than that.

Don't anyone bother reading from the bottom up.



At the individual wrestler level anyone who took a chance on lamer was rewarded. From a #20 seed to a 4th place finish aint too shabby.



For those of you who were tempted to take all #17 seeds.....not a great idea.



Finally, if you picked the highest scoring wrestler at each weight your final score would have been 74.

 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,669
4,408
113
Final Board Team Standings (based on average score per username)

BoardTotal ScoreUsernamesAverage Score
34 and counting
179.5​
5​
35.9​
TKR
133​
4​
33.3​
HR
326​
11​
29.6​
BWI
627.5​
26​
24.1​
 

mcpat

All-American
Mar 12, 2021
1,766
7,109
113
I want to personally thank the posters, and you know who you are, that called me out for picking Ryder while on his death bed and convinced me to change the pick.