Derby Talk?
- Thread starter AlbanyWildCat
- Start date
The curse of Apollo may very well fall this year. That was the 2 year old champion that Justify blew away in the Santa Anita Derby. He didn't run until February 18 of this year. 3 races with Beyer's of 101, 104 and 107. I know Beyer speed figures don't mean everything but they don't mean nothing either.
Oh, and Todd Pletcher is loaded.
Oh, and Todd Pletcher is loaded.
1. Justify - monster
2. Good Magic - said to be training great; looking to peak 3rd start off a layoff
3. Mendelssohn - Very intriguing/mysterious horse. The $3 Mil pricetag isn’t mysterious though.
4. Audible - not crazy about his shoe equipment though
Crossing out:
* Magnum Moon - Not sure the race sets up for him
* Vino Rosso - I feel he will encounter traffic with his style and he doesn’t have enough tactical speed to stay near the pace.
* My Boy Jack - same reasons as Vino.
Lomgshots:
While I do not think a 20-1+ longshot will win, I do think there are a couple of horses that could round out a super or tri.
* Hofburg - Lightly races like many, but seems to be strong on a big one. He will need to weave through traffic as a closer
* Flameaway - He’ll be on the pace, and may fade to 11th. But the SOB has guts, and sometimes guts can carry you to the wire . . . in 2nd place.
* Solomini - Another fighter. But I think he’d rather bump and bully the pack instead of outrunning them. Still, he has the talent to be 4th while trying to bite the ear off of the horse he’s trying to catch!
Will know more after the draw, of course.
#RIPbuckywaters
2. Good Magic - said to be training great; looking to peak 3rd start off a layoff
3. Mendelssohn - Very intriguing/mysterious horse. The $3 Mil pricetag isn’t mysterious though.
4. Audible - not crazy about his shoe equipment though
Crossing out:
* Magnum Moon - Not sure the race sets up for him
* Vino Rosso - I feel he will encounter traffic with his style and he doesn’t have enough tactical speed to stay near the pace.
* My Boy Jack - same reasons as Vino.
Lomgshots:
While I do not think a 20-1+ longshot will win, I do think there are a couple of horses that could round out a super or tri.
* Hofburg - Lightly races like many, but seems to be strong on a big one. He will need to weave through traffic as a closer
* Flameaway - He’ll be on the pace, and may fade to 11th. But the SOB has guts, and sometimes guts can carry you to the wire . . . in 2nd place.
* Solomini - Another fighter. But I think he’d rather bump and bully the pack instead of outrunning them. Still, he has the talent to be 4th while trying to bite the ear off of the horse he’s trying to catch!
Will know more after the draw, of course.
#RIPbuckywaters
Big Brown and American Pharaoh only two I've made money on last few years.
I have better luck in the under cards.
I understand.
I think you might want to take a shot on Magnum Moon however. I think he’s going to be tough to beat.
Thats who I'm pulling for as he was bred just down the road from me at Clarkland Farm.
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Well, he beat me at the BC when I bet against him, no doubt he will screw me again when I bet on him.
Although I do tend to bet favorites, I like the price he will get on Derby Day, 10-1 or so, I think. Probably 3rd or 4th choice. Does that sound about right?
Also going to put him on top of some exactas with some longer shots in the 2 spot, hoping for a really nice payout. Not that I am a degenerate gambler or anything . . .
I think you have to at least be at a mammal in order to race.
MBJ....won't need tactical speed. Plenty of early speed in the race, and if he draws well, he is the best closer in the field. That stretch is made for him. A definite
for the exotics.
In the last 58 years, there have been SEVEN 20+-1 winners or a 17-2 chance. In the last 23 years, there have been FIVE 20+-1 winners or a 9-2 chance. Both are way better odds than 20-1.
Since they went away from graded stakes earnings and went to the point system everything has change. In 2017, Always Dreaming won as a 9/2 favorite. 2016, Nyquist won as a 2/1 favorite. 2015, American Pharoah won as the 3/1 favorite. 2014, California Chrome won as the 5/2 favorite. 2014, the year the points system went in, Orb won as the 5/1 favorite. So that is 5 straight favorites since the point system went in.
My theory behind why this is happening is that it's keeping the sprinters that never should have been in the race in the first place out. They put the point system in the year after I'll Have Another won. A horse named Trinniburg, who had never run past 7 furlongs before or after the Derby, was entered and completely screwed up the pace. They ran the first quarter in 22.32 and the half in 45.39. Those are suicidal in a 1 1/4 mile race. By today's rules, Trinniburg wouldn't even be eligible since no races count for points under a mile. The horse never should have been entered into the race and the owners really should be ashamed of themselves because they knew they had no chance of winning and were just screwing things up.
"You shoe handicappers can be a tough nut to crack."
Rich Perloff
If you are home sick on a Monday or Tuesday and are looking for entertainment it can be fun to listen to Rich replying to tweets. He has the gift of sarcasm.
Bodemeister actually went wire to 2nd and had every intention of winning w/ his own pace. Trinniberg didn't belong, as you said, but didn't play the super rabbit role as most predicted.
Shouldn't the title of this thread be "Talk Derby to Me"?
#JokeICompletelyJustMadeUpAndNoOneElseEverHasMade
#JokeICompletelyJustMadeUpAndNoOneElseEverHasMade
remember fella,s the women will look gorgeous, the weather is great and it's that time of the year!!!!
but.....
but.....
Loved Flameaway in the Blue Grass, he will be in my exotics on Saturday.
Things just go better for Justify. He drew the 7 post. I hate the fact that he's the favorite and is lightly raced but he may just be too good. I remember Jeff Seigel talking about Big Brown saying "sometimes you just need to bet on the fastest horse."
Exactly why I’m betting on Justify to win. He looks like a damn monster, too.
Avoids the rail, and looks like he’ll be able to get a spot to relax. The gates have to open, but if he’s as good as advertised, he shouldn’t have any excuses.
Avoids the rail, and looks like he’ll be able to get a spot to relax. The gates have to open, but if he’s as good as advertised, he shouldn’t have any excuses.
This is a good angle to play, its been a great indicator of who the winner has been. Final quarter under 38 in their final Derby Prep. Ill likely throw out the Arkansas Derby horses because that track seemed to be lightening quick and I think they are not accurate.
https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2018-2018-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finished
https://www.americasbestracing.net/gambling/2018-2018-derby-data-how-fast-the-contenders-finished
anyone have any PDFs to share Oaks/Derby. I find the DRF site awful to navigate and others have yet to come out.
I like him too. Just not sure with the post position if justified won't win minus jockey **** up or injury.