Derby Time

[Strokin_Bandit]

Since buckywaters/seekingthegold is in prison, dead, or missing, I figure it's about that time of the year to talk about the ponies for a little while leading up to May 6th.

This year's Derby looks like a total toss up with no real consistent runner in the bunch, unless Classic Empire returns to form in the Arkansas Derby Saturday. So best of luck and here's a look at the current top points earners.

1. Girvin (150 points) - Won Louisiana Derby last out. In terms of consistency, he always fires. In terms of his times, he's too slow.

2. Gormley (125) - Won a staggerfest in the Santa Anita Derby. Inconsistent runner. Barely has cracked 90 in his Beyers.

3. Irap (113) - If you were at Keeneland Saturday, you probably lost money on this fluke performance. If you won, congrats. He may be the biggest colt in the field and bully his way across the wire, but I think he's a fluke.

4. Irish War Cry (110) - Has had the best looking win out of these last prep races winning the Wood Memorial on Sat He's another inconsistent runner. Before Saturday, he was a well beaten 5th in the FOY.

5. Thunder Snow (100) - UAE Derby winner. He'll be a mystery like all of those runners tend to be. No horse that has campaigned over there has ever shipped to Churchill to win the Derby. The first one that does win it will do it at my expense.

6. Always Dreaming (100) - Me like! I thought he had the most visually appealing race of all in the Florida Derby. Has a good running style and looked like he could have gone another furlong after that race.

7. Gunnevera (84) - Also me like! He's a late runner and will need to avoid traffic. He may also be too far behind to catch them. If you liked Orb and Street Sense, this is the horse for you!

8. Practical Joke (74) - I really like this guy's acceleration. Has a quick turn of foot, but doesn't sustain that speed. Could make a move and get his name called at the top of the stretch, but I don't think he outruns anyone down the lane.

9. J Boy's Echo (63) - Dale Romans. Kentuckians will bet this guy, but I don't think he's got what it takes.

10. State of Honor (62) - Meh. All the experts say he could have a heck of a career as a one-turn miler. Thought he showed some guts in the Florida Derby, but 1 1/4 is way too far for him to travel.

11. Tapwrit (54) - Another inconsistent runner. But when he's on, he's awfully tough. Even the experts seem to be split on his ability. I think he has a chance.

12. Malagacy (50) - Lightly raced with no 2 year old campaign. History says no.

Others (only the top 20 point getters get in the race):

15. McCraken (40) - He was all the experts top pick until Saturday. After being beaten in the Bluegrass it's up to betters to determine whether that race was just a freshening up for him (ie, "just what he needed!") or if he just got outrun. I think he got outrun.

21. Classic Empire (32) - After Saturday's Arkansas Derby, he'll be in the top 20. He's your champion 2 year old and if he runs to that form, should be the horse to catch on May 6th. He's had some hoof issues so who knows what to expect from him. Said to be training well. Oh yeah, his sire is American Pharoah's sire.

33. One Liner (10) - He was one I was going to hope flew under the radar because I think he's a runner. Just announced earlier today that he's sitting out the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Oh well.

There is money to be made out there. I have no idea how to handicap it and I don't think anyone else does either. I firmly believe the post time favorite will be 4-1 or higher, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have a no-name coming from the clouds (Giacomo/Mine That Bird) to steal this one. I hope you all can find him. Good luck.

 

[Ribsandwhitebread]

Made some futures wagers on IWC, so if he can put together another good trip I would stand to do well. Don't think his win in the Wood was a fluke, and like the way he surged when challenged, but not sure he can outrun the Derby field.

 

[RacerX.ksr]

Thanks for the effort, but I'm gonna wait on Glenn to give me a take before I bet any money.

 

[kevcat]

Obviously, after Saturday I will now say it's totally wide open this year.

I'll wait and see the field before I figure out how the race will be set up.

 

[Glenn's Take]

Thanks for the effort, but I'm gonna wait on Glenn to give me a take before I bet any money.

Once I get the PP's I'll let you know but Bandit is definitely right about it being wide open. Nobody can win 2 races in a row. Looking for a bomb this year.

 

[RacerX.ksr]

I'll be watching.

 

[bcw1029]

McCracken will likely be overlooked and he loves Churchill.

 

[WildcatFan1982]

I've been told to bet a boxed trifecta on

Classic Empire
Always Dreaming
Girvin

but I know nothing about horse racing. At all.

 

[Crankdatmustard_rivals66299]

McCracken is so undervalued right now it is a joke. The damn trainer said before Lexington Stakes they weren't even training to win the race but get him ready for Churchill.

Classic Empire wont finish in the money IMO.

 

[bcw1029]

If it's a really fast/quick pace as I expect that it will, I expect a closer like Gunnevera to benefit and come flying late. But yeah, agree with you Crank, McCracken is undervalued.

 

[Glenn's Take]

A quick rundown without reading the past performances. In order of points
1. Girvin-He swept the 3 prep races at Fairgrounds but I still don't like him. Slow races, I don't think he has beaten anyone really any good. LA Derby runners haven't done much lately. Pass

2. Classic Empire-Looked great in Arkansas. 2 year old champ. Need to watch the Holy Bull again but I think I can come up with an excuse for it. My most likely winner. Maybe the horse to beat but may not be the horse to bet with as open as this year is.

3. Gormley-won a lousy SA Derby with what seems like a bad class for CA this year. Nope

4. Irap-Maybe worth a shot underneath but will be overbet off winning the Bluegrass (which was a Grade 2 this year along with the Wood. I think the Bluegrass will get the Grade 1 status back soon, probably not the Wood.) Would be surprised if he won

5. Irish War Cry-Hard to figure out. Won the Wood but I don't think much of the Wood anymore. All the best NY horses go to Florida for the winter. 7th in the Fountain of Youth maybe too bad to believe. Need to watch his races closer.

6. Thunder Snow-UAE Derby winner-no thanks, they never run worth a crap

7. Always Dreaming-A lot to like. Like Bodemeister as the sire. Impressive FL Derby. Not sure of the long layoff from August to almost February. Need to look at him more but don't like the lack of any kind of 2 year old season.

8. Gunnevera-If it was a 14 horse field I would like him a lot more. 3rd in FL Derby doesn't bother me at all due to the outside post. He never had a chance. I just don't like dead closers in the Derby because there is just too much trouble to be found.

9, Practical Joke-Might not be the horse to beat but may be the horse to bet. Odds will be good but there is upside. No pace at all to run at in the Bluegrass. No really bad races. Worth a look.

10.J Boys Echo-Don't think much. Beat some crap in NY. Just too slow I think.

11. State of Honor-Got better when he got off the Poly at Woodbine but still a little slow. Seems to like to come in 2nd so maybe use underneath.

12. Tapwrit-Won Tampa Bay Derby so watch in the Belmont but probably not here. TB is a deep, sandy track just like Belmont but it doesn't usually translate elsewhere.

13. Malagacy-If Curlin couldn't win the Derby without running at 2 I'm not sure anyone really will. Trying to overcome over 100 years of history against him.

14. Hence-Won Sunland Derby. Street Boss who was a sprinter as sire. No thanks.

15. Fast and Accurate-2 of 3 wins at Turfway on the poly. 1 win at Gulfstream in some stakes race that I've never heard of. Pass

16. McCracken-3 wins at Churchill last year so he definitely likes the track. Would have liked him a lot better had he not lost a month of training which made him miss the TB Derby. I get the people that like him but I don't think I'll like him at his price. Brian Hernandez in the irons? Seriously?

17. Battle of Midway-Another horse from CA where I don't think much of the whole crop. No American Pharoah or California Chrome coming from out there this year.

18. Patch-No racing at 2 no Glenn.

19. Battalion Runner-Lightly raced but really a lot to like. 2nd in Wood which I said I didn't like but his odds may make me like him more. Will be watching how he works.

20. Cloud Computing-No racing at 2 no Glenn.

If you would like to watch the prep races here is a link.

I'm still glad the put the point system in instead of just graded stakes earning. It's keeping out those horses just making money in sprint races that have no chance of running a mile and 1/4. Probably won't be any fillies running anytime soon unless they change the rules back.

I may change my mind on everything to once I sit down with the PPs.

 

[Tskware]

^ Thanks greatly!

My amateur view is to take 4 to 6 longshots and bet a variety of exotic combos, hoping to hit a grand slam. I like Classic Empire as well, as the best of a mediocre class, but he is no Pharoah, at least IMO. Not as a 4-1 favorite anyway.

 

[Strokin_Bandit]

I pretty much agree with all of Glen's takes there.

I think Classic Empire is most talented colt in the field, but too many questions abound for me to bet him at a short price. Would I "buy" him in a Calcutta? I'd give it a strong run, but again, I'm not willing to invest a ton on this enigma.

I like the tactical speed of Always Dreaming. Like Glen, I'm not crazy about his foundation. His Fla. Derby proved he can rate. If he gets a good post, he could lay 2-3 off the lead and make a move.

I think I'll try to beat Irish War Cry. I just think he's fool's gold. If he wins, it'll be a bad day for me because I just can't see him on any of my big tickets.
Honestly, I think the exact same about McCraken. He just doesn't impress me. People may say, "he wasn't trying to win the Bluegrass; just needed it for conditioning, blah blah." Did those people not watch the race? That colt was LUCKY to get 3rd, and never looked engaged. I don't respect him as a legit 2nd 3rd choice here. If he hits the board, I'm not cashing any exotics.
Full disclosure: I thought the same about Exaggerator last year. I'm not sure what that proves?

Of course I'm waiting on post positions, clocker's reports, and final odds before I really know what I want to do, but here are some horses that really intrigue me.

Tapwrit - bred to run. Could have a pace to run at. Seems able to switch gears and navigate trouble.

Practical Joke - He accelerates faster than any horse in this field. If he stays out of traffic trouble, I think he'll make a visually impressive move . . . only to flatten out, probably. Not sure he wants more than 1 1/16.

Hence - We may need to pay attention to the Sunland Derby (?)

Gunnevera - The race may just set up for him. Very interested in his training at Churchill and post position.

Looooong way to go.

 

[Glenn's Take]

Robby Albarado broke his ankle this afternoon and is off J Boys Echo. Maybe time to look at him. Last time this happened to Albarado Animal Kingdom won the race under Johnny V.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

If you don't put a 5er on McCracken, simply for the name, then you're a commie.

 

[Rupp'sRunt]

Is Glenn a horse racing savant or something?

 

[Strokin_Bandit]

Well, McCraken had a huge workout today. Looks like I'll have to open that door back up. He wowed a lot of guys I trust.

 

[Glenn's Take]

Is Glenn a horse racing savant or something?

Just a hobby. My grandfather was a jockey until he got his leg caught in a starting gate and broke it in 21 places. Then he was an outrider for the rest of his career. I lived about 2 miles from Laurel Race Course as a kid and my dad took me there a lot. Some of my earliest memories of life along with Redskins, Orioles and Capitals games. Got exposed to it early and kept up with it.

 

[Glenn's Take]

The Hall of Fame inductees are in for this year.
Goldikova-Won the Breeders Cup Mile 3 times in a row. That will get it done.

Javier Castellano-4 straight Eclipse Awards for outstanding jockey and 4 straight money titles nationally. Won several jockey titles even though he went out of town a lot of weekends for bigger races. Oddly enough only 1 triple crown victory in the Preakness in 2006. Another odd fact. You have to go back to 2006 with Edgar Prado as the last jockey to win the Eclipse award and have a Derby win. Castellano 4 times, Ramon Dominguez 3 times, Julien Leparoux once and Garret Gomez twice. Before that you had Johnny V win the Eclipse twice and he only won the Derby on a pickup mount.

Victor Espinoza-Winning big races matters and he has been great in the TC races. From War Emblem to American Pharoah. 7 TC wins but all in 3 years. Derby/Preakness on War Emblem, Derby/Preakness on California Chrome, AP wins the TC/

Garrett Gomez-Rest in peace Gogo. Quite possibly the most talented rider ever. No joking. Just a piece of advise. If you are on meth you should probably get off. You can be the most talented rider ever and still die alone in a hotel at an Indian casino from a meth overdose.

 

[kevcat]

McCracken wins and it won't be close.

You're welcome.

 

[Glenn's Take]

Girvin with a quarter crack but not ruled out for the Derby yet. I wouldn't take 50 to 1 on this horse.

 

[Strokin_Bandit]

They've been hush-hush (until today) about Girvin since last Friday. Matter of time before they pull the plug.

Always Dreaming has been on the muscle the last two mornings. Not real sure what that means for his performance. Maybe he's ready to roll? Or he'll spit the bit and be cooked after a mile. I tend to lean toward the latter.

 

[Kaizer Sosay]

Where the heck is bucky? I am not laying down any bets until i hear from bucky.

 

[BernieSadori]

I'll do my normal thing that's gotten me three straight Derby winning tickets.

-This weekend I'll watch all of the major Derby prep races. See who looks most impressive and make them as a "look".
-See if any of the favorites in those same prep races struggled and why. Hopefully I'll find one that was boxed in or stumbled a little a the start that will help raise the odds.
-Looks at works leading up to the race and narrow it down from there.

$6 trifecta box
Couple of $40 exacta boxes
$40 win

I have over $500 in my twin spires account I basically forget about until Derby season. I don't like simulcast so I'm usually at CD betting at the track.

 

[Glenn's Take]

I'll do my normal thing that's gotten me three straight Derby winning tickets.

-This weekend I'll watch all of the major Derby prep races. See who looks most impressive and make them as a "look".

Absolutely the best way to handicap if you have the time.

 

[Kaizer Sosay]

Sooooo…bernie is the new bucky?

 

[Glenn's Take]

Interesting analogy between Todd Pletcher and Cal in this clip from Ray Paulick's website. It starts at the 2:15 mark.

link

 

[Glenn's Take]

Made some money tonight but it could have been better. In 2 races in a row I had an 11/1 and a 15/1 that both won but I boxed them in an exacta and I couldn't get the other horse home.
Bet Syndergaard next time out. I know he lost tonight at 1/5 but if you have access to the head on from the gate you will understand.

 

[bcw1029]

Is Paradise Woods beatable in the Oaks?

 

[MattsCats_rivals45322]

A LITTLE off topic, but is Keeneland for Derby (on The Hill) about the same as it is during the Spring and Fall meets? As in: tailgating and BYOB with live-betting under the tent? Thinking of doing that with a group.

 

[Born and Raised Big Blue]

What are everyone's thoughts?

 

[GLR5555]

Pretty good horse race.

 

[JoeBeeHall]

Pitino would not have lasted until the quarter pole .

 

[Mikey Likes It]

I'm betting on Elmers and Alpo.

 

[akaukswoosh]

Irish War Cry, Wood Memorial winner, will win it with a good trip.

SBR Sports Picks‏@SBRSportsPicks
Top choices for #KentuckyDerby Saturday at #Bovada
Always Dreaming 4/1
Classic Empire 17/4
Irish War Cry 13/2
McCraken 13/2
Gunnevera 12/1

 

[kevcat]

McCracken wins easily IMO.

I'm putting a good chunk of change on him.

 

[Born and Raised Big Blue]

McCracken wins easily IMO.

I'm putting a good chunk of change on him.

McCracken lost at keeneland last run I think.

 

[DelkBowl]

Never been but would make some great glue later on.

 

[ThePhoenix_rivals211191]

Here are my thoughts at the moment. But I haven't fully handicapped it, and it's pre-post draw so that may change some things. Also, the forecast is making it look like there is a good chance this Derby is in the slop/mud. Don't know if that will affect my picks until I really get into it and handicap it. It may not, because I think most of my top picks like the off going.

What I'm struggling with is what this pace is going to look like. It's tough to figure out imo. There's not a lot of straight up gunners for the lead (Fast and Accurate's connex say he's gunning from the get go). But there's a ton of close range presser types. That can still lead to a hot pace because they can all be bunched up and not be wanting to get hung wide and some will send earlier than they want. Also makes the post draw important. And Always Dreaming has been so very keyed up it's hard to envision him not coming out of there flying. Have a feeling that he may do like Palace Malice did. But it's hard to say. I'm envisioning the winner being a horse that can lay somewhat close, just behind the pace setters, and then make a strong move on the turn to get the lead at the top of the stretch and then hold off the deep closers.

Keep in mind this is very subject to change depending on post draw, weather, etc. Definitely not final picks.

1. McCraken
2. Irish War Cry
3. Gunnevera
4. Hence
5. Classic Empire
6. Thunder Snow
7. Always Dreaming

I moved McCraken up to my top spot. Bottom line is I don't think any horse is training any better right now. He just looks great. He worked his final 3f in 35 3/5 into a headwind the other day. Looked athletic as hell hugging the rails on the turns, and he truly just skips over that track. He LOVES him some Churchill man. 3/3 on that track and it's showing in his works. I was never bothered at all about his Bluegrass. I know how Ian Wilkes trains horses. I bet against McCraken that day because I knew he wouldn't have him remotely cranked off that layoff with the Derby being the focus. He got what he needed out of it, and is set to move forward and run his best race to date imo. Wilkes was Nafzgers assistant when he won with Street Sense and Unbridled, and it's the same pattern. This horse reminds me of Street Sense in several ways (loves the track, working great, coming off just a tune up loss). He has the agility and turn of foot to avoid traffic, and his jock knows CDowns like the back of his hand. Haven't handicapped his off track pedigree etc yet though.

Irish War Cry I also moved up a spot. Because he also appears to be flourishing big time. Think he's also one of the most versatile in the field. I think with a certain post he could go to the lead and if they let him set easy fractions he's not coming back. Has as much stamina for the distance as anyone in the race. I also think though, that his best running style is to stalk the pace and relax early, and he can do that as well. His speed figures are as good or better than anyone so he appears fast enough. Figure he'll like an off track too. Covers a lot of ground with that stride which is good with a solid trip. But unlike McCraken (who seems to be light footed and nimble), this guy seems heavier footed and may not handle getting stopped great. Hard to envision him running poorly regardless of scenario though.

I moved Gunnevera down a couple spots. Couple reasons. The big one is I think he wins ... IF the pace is very hot. He reminds me of Monarchos (who I bet to win that Derby). Big turn of foot. His final 3/8 in his last is the fastest anyone in the field has come home. And that's a race he lost by 6. But that didn't bother me at all. Everything was against him that day. The track was very speed biased. His outside post at GP was a horrible spot. Castellano yanked him inside out of the gate only to later go outside again. And he still came home flying, just had too much against him and too much to do. I thought it was actually a really sneaky good race. He should be running faster down the stretch than any of them. But Monarchos got a scalding hot pace to close into. He won't get that fast. If it comes up 45 for the half I'll like his chances. If it's 47 he's going to have too much to do. Since I'm currently thinking a 46 and change, a hard closing 3rd while just running out of ground is where I'm seeing him right now. Also, I don't know that he's flourishing. His works have been fine, but more of the maintenance type. It's possible he peaked too early. Hard to say. I put him 3rd, because closers like him often run around there when the pace isn't hot enough.

Hence was really flattered by the other horses exiting the Sunland Derby. In regular races that's a "key race" type angle that is profitable. His speed figs are there. And his work was outstanding. Seems talented and doing well. The right running style, with a nice turn of foot. Also, judging by his win at Oaklawn in the slop, if it comes up off track he should love it.

Always liked Classic Empire. And if he's at his best he's arguably the most likely winner, as he's arguably the best horse in the field. Seems to be doing well, will like the distance, will like slop. Very few negatives. My main negative is mentally he's prone to lose focus. 170K people on Derby Day is a risky thing. Also, I tend to try to pick spots to take a stand against the bigger favorites, and that one aspect is enough for me. Also, he's not gotten in a lot of work this year and he may be lacking some foundation, which could show up in the last 1/8th. I'm also a bit afraid of the Julian "The Strangler" Leparoux bad ride.

Thunder Snow is a bit of a mystery. Just shipped in and has only cantered around the track today. I don't really know what to make of it. Part of me thinks Godolphin would have shipped earlier if they were really serious. But part of me thinks if they weren't really serious they wouldn't have passed up on the English and French 2000 Guineas. But I do think he's very very talented. He's run well and won on multiple surfaces and in multiple countries. I think that's a hallmark of really talented horses. I also know he'll get the distance and then some. Has won going wide from the 12 hole at 1 3/16. He's the type that I see sliding into the back of the superfecta. Some issues with lead changes, and perhaps not the ideal setup coming into the race keep from thinking he really has a shot to win. But I do think he's a threat for the super.

Then there's Always Dreaming. The call I make on him may determine my entire Derby success. I think he's feast or famine here. He looks to be crazy talented. Should get the distance no problem. His Fl Derby was just outstanding. It's possible he's still getting better and has another move forward. Wouldn't shock me a bit if he won, as I think he's really talented. But, I don't like his training here. He's been fighting his rider, and very headstrong. Just been a handful. They put "draw reins" on him and that controlled him a little bit, but I don't know that it helps on race day. I don't know enough about it, but I could see him getting freed from the draw reins and then really going ham wanting to run. Basically, if he relaxes at all, I could see him winning, and even potentially winning easily. But if he's headstrong he'll probably blaze out of there, end up dueling, and finishing up the track. Kinda of all or nothing imo. Also, while his Fla Derby was amazing, I do think it was track bias aided. Regardless, when I play supers, particularly in the Derby, I like to take a stand against favorites I think might be vulnerable. Probably taking a total stand against him, except for maybe some saver ticket or two.

8. Irap
9. Tapwrit
10. Battle of Midway
11. Sonneteer

This is my next group. Basically, too many question marks to really like, not great threats to win, but still under consideration for the back end up exotics. Irap's Bluegrass wasn't a fluke imo. He had run some solid races against tough competition, and was only a maiden barely. I was impressed how he didn't give up that lead the whole stretch despite never changing leads. Tough horse, physically and mentally, and looks to be very well right now. I never underestimate Doug O'Neill in the Derby anymore, and I like the way he's working him.

Tapwrit has looked good enough in the am for me to excuse his Bluegrass a bit, although it's hard because he didn't run a step. But he also didn't look well coming into that one, so maybe it's excusable. He ran too well in Tampa to ignore completely, at a likely big price.

Battle of Midway looks good. And of the Santa Anita horses he's the one that most impressed me. He's the only horse in that race that was on that hot pace and didn't collapse, and that wasn't really his normal running style. Thought he ran a credible race there, and could move forward.

Sonneteer is interesting. Still a maiden but has run some big races. Huge work recently. Seems to be coming into his own and might like the setup he gets.

 

[Glenn's Take]

After looking at the advance PPs I think I'll be taking a stand against McCraken and Always Dreaming. I disagree that McCraken will be undervalued and counter that I think he will be the most overbet horse in the race. I get the success at Churchill but I'm not sure who he beat and the times were nothing to write home about. Tampa Bay Downs is just a different type of track (more Belmont) and I know he didn't care about the Bluegrass but he still showed absolutely nothing in the stretch. I agree with Phoenix that Always Dreaming is likely to pull a Palace Malice and run off and fade in the stretch. 2 longshots I am starting to like more and more are State of Honor and Lookin at Lee. State of Honor really improve a lot after running on that almost turf surface at Woodbine. Watch Lookin at Lee in the Arkansas Derby and I think you will be impressed by the stretch run. Got stopped and had to change paths a couple times and was still coming at the end.