1. Lookin at Lee, 20-1: The distance increase will help him, and he should be running at the end, but there are other closers I prefer over him. I could maybe use him in 3rd or 4th, but that’s about as far as I’d go.
2. Thunder Snow, 20-1: Not the ideal post draw, but I still like him quite a bit. I thought the UAE Derby was a strong race, and an argument could be made it was the strongest final prep. He’s still a bit immature, but in his two dirt races, he’s shown both brilliance (UAE 2000 Guineas) and grit (UAE Derby). I picked him third, but he’ll be a major part of my play.
3. Fast and Accurate, 50-1: My leading candidate to finish last. He’s too slow, and he’s a turf/synthetic horse at that. Will be a pace presence, though.
4. Untrapped, 30-1: He’s been fading down the stretch his past couple of races, and the increasing distance will only hurt him. Not using.
5. Always Dreaming, 5-1: He’s a tough call. I get the feeling that he’s going to be a horse that finishes either in the top two or finishes 15th or worse. If a horse wins by 5+ lengths, he’s probably the one, but that would rely upon him transferring his Gulfstream form over to another track, which is no guarantee with a Pletcher horse. He’s had easy trips in all of his races this year, and while his last actual work was strong, he’s been acting up and on edge in all of his morning gallops this week, which is not something you want to see, because if he can’t relax then, how is he going to relax on Derby day? I’ll use him defensively, but I’m really hoping to beat him.
6. State of Honor, 30-1: He’s another horse that should be forwardly paced, but that I have major distance concerns about. Not using.
7. Girvin, 15-1: He was already a horse I was sort of leaning against anyways, but seeing him miss a work and having foot issues within two weeks of the race makes is easier to be against him. Not using.
8. Hence, 15-1: Pace advantage or not, he won the Sunland Derby going away, and that race has came back extremely live. He’s turned into the wise guy horse because of that, so if you liked Hence, you probably won’t get the price you were hoping for. He’s not in my top four, but if I were to expand to five, he’d be right there. I’ll use him in my exotics.
9. Irap, 20-1: He had everything his own way in the Blue Grass, from being forwardly placed on a soft pace on a speed favoring track to having at least one horse behind him not fully cranked to actually win the race. He’ll have to prove it to me again. Not using.
10. Gunnevera, 15-1: Here’s my top pick and my key horse. He had a nice setup in the Fountain of Youth, but he won authoritatively, and in his other two starts of the year, he was up against it from a pace and trip perspective and still ran well. He has the fastest closing 3/8ths of a mile in the race, which has proven to be a good indicator of a horse that will thrive with the increase in distance. And he’s been running all year at Gulfstream, a track that usually doesn’t play to closing horses. Churchill should suit him better. On top of that, he has the top jockey in the nation riding him in Castellano, and one of the few races he’s yet to win is the Derby. Got to think he’ll win one at some point, and he has the horse this time to do so.
11. Battle of Midway, 30-1: He did well to hang around after being on the pace in the Santa Anita Derby, but he was staggering down the stretch. I’m against all the Santa Anita horses. Not using.
12. Sonneteer, 50-1: He’s still a maiden, and I don’t see how he breaks his maiden in this race of all races. That said, if you are looking for an absolute bomb in the bottom of your exotics, he’s worth a look. To be honest, I view him and Lookin at Lee very similarly, but for the Derby, I prefer Sonneteer over him slightly because a) he’ll be twice the price and b) he has a more experienced jockey aboard (Desormeaux) when it comes to weaving through 15+ horses in the Derby. Probably wouldn’t go higher than 3rd or 4th though.
13. J Boys Echo, 20-1: I’m taking the view that his Gotham (where he had an ideal trip) is an outlier, and without that race, he just hasn’t shown he’s really good enough to be a contender here. Not using.
14. Classic Empire, 4-1: His Breeders Cup Juvenile remains the best race any horse in this field has run, but given the year he has had (no show in Holy Bull, refused to work one week, minor injuries), he’s hard to trust. The Arkansas Derby was a nice step forward, but now you’re asking him to run back on three weeks with really only that race as a foundation to build off of. And it wasn’t as if the Arkansas Derby was all that fast. I don’t want him as the favorite, or even as one of the favorites. I may use him defensively in exotics, but he’s a horse I will try to completely beat in the top spot.
15. McCracken, 5-1: He’s a major contender. He’s proven he loves Churchill, and he was very impressive his first start of this year. And he had plenty of excuses for his 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass- slow pace on a speed favoring track. More importantly, though, is that his connections (especially Ian Wilkes, his trainer) viewed the Blue Grass as a pure prep, and Wilkes is from the school of Carl Nafzger in terms of being able to get a horse primed for a particular race. I expect him to take a nice step forward in the Derby. I picked him second.
16. Tapwrit, 20-1: He’s been training extremely well this week, with a lot of people that take in the horses each morning mentioning he’s been the most impressive. With that said, slow pace or not, he never showed any sort of run in the Blue Grass, and it is hard to take him off of a total non-effort. Given how well he has looked, I haven’t completely ruled out using him underneath, but most likely I will be against him.
17. Irish War Cry, 6-1: I still don’t know what happened in the Fountain of Youth, but there are only 4 triple digit Beyers in the field, and he has two of them with his wins in the Holy Bull and the Wood. You take those two races as the representative Irish War Cry, and he’s one of the top contenders. He did get good trips in both of those wins, though, and he won’t have things quite as easy this time around. But I still want to use him. I picked him 4th.
18. Gormley, 15-1: One of three multiple Grade-1 stake winners in the field, but despite winning the Santa Anita Derby, he’s gradually been getting slower this year in terms of speed figures, and he only won the Santa Anita Derby because he had the best trip. As I mentioned, any horse from Santa Anita will have to beat me. Not using.
19. Practical Joke, 20-1: I respect his talent, but I remain adamant that he’ll ultimately be a miler, and that longer isn’t better. Him not being able to get by Irap in the Blue Grass is only more evidence of this. Post draw wasn’t good for him, either. He’s a potential 2018 Met Mile winner, but I don’t want him at a mile and a quarter. Not using.
20. Patch, 30-1: I think he has a nice future, but this might be too much, too soon for him. Still, with a better draw, I could have seen him maybe sneaking into the back of the exotics, but with the outside post, that’s just enough for me to pass on him. Not using.
Kentucky Derby selections:
1. Gunnevera (10) 15-1
2. McCracken (15) 5-1
3. Thunder Snow (2) 20-1
4. Irish War Cry (17) 6-1
