Doubt creeping in...

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,095
1,168
62
WARNING: While most of my negative posting is usually reserved for in-game lunatic rants, this is going to be a negative post. And this one is scarier, because its a next-morning, in a calm state negative post. If you hate my negative posts, then hit your back button now. Better still, tell me why I'm wrong, because I hope I am wrong.

Doubt is creeping in for me, and not just about this year's team. I never had very high expectations for them due to so much that was unknown coming into the year. Sadly, doubt is also creeping in regarding Chris Collins.

It really began after last year. Last year was a disaster. This was a team that almost knocked off eventual Final Four participant Gonzaga in the round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament in 2017 and was returning just about every important player. It should have been an incredible year for NU hoops. Instead, this team fell apart. Not making the tournament was one disappointment, but to not even finish above .500 was a colossal collapse. Now, we may never know the complete story behind last year's failure, but its hard not to pin some of that on the head coach.

The doubt crept back again last night during that painful stretch after the 8-minute timeout. MSU went on a run and they were awesome. Credit to MSU. But what concerned me was just how bad, out-of-control, rattled and undisciplined we looked - even a 5th-year senior like Vic Law looked lost. Coach called a timeout and we came out of it looking even worse. I didn't expect him to have some magic elixir to slow down MSU, but I did expect him to regain control of his team so that they stopped beating themselves. Instead, we took horrible, forced shots, left guys wide-open and just looked like a playground team instead of a well-coached BIG team. It appeared as if Collins either didn't know what to tell his guys or else they weren't listening. Either is a bad sign.

I've never known what to think about Collins' in-game coaching. However, the one thing we do celebrate about Coach Collins is his recruiting. And he has brought some of the highest rated recruits to Evanston. But if you stop and look at his track record, there is cause for concern. To date, he has brought in 6 4-star recruits. I would argue that one of them has been a hit (Law), three have been, I'm sorry to say, busts and two are TBD (though they aren't exactly lighting things up their freshman year). Therefore, while I want to get pumped up about his recruiting, it hasn't exactly been as exciting as it might have appeared. Combine that with the fact that we have very little talent in our sophomore and junior classes right now and its very worrying.

Now, I'm not off the band wagon yet. In addition to the 4-star recruits, its great having a coach who gets his team to play defense the way the Cats do. That is encouraging. We'll always have 2016-2017. But late at night, in the back of my mind..... doubt is creeping in.
 

Walker Fan

Freshman
Feb 16, 2015
751
88
0
If one of MSU best players who can hit a three is out for the game (Langford) and you know MSU has three 6’8”-6’9”, 260 lbs. plus players, you throw in some zone defense. You play a two-big lineup of Pardon and Benson against Ward and Tillman. You don’t simply go man-to-man the entire game when you are overmatched athletically.

The obvious problems with this year’s team are that we have no point guard and Turner is having to play PG minutes when that is not his skill set. Also, Taylor was supposed to be a lights out shooter and score 17 ppg or plus. Those two things have not happened. But adjustments have to be made in game if you want to compete in the Big 10 where everyone knows your weaknesses. No adjustments were made last night to guard Nick Ward who everyone knows can not be guarded man to man against Big 10 competition. Maybe against KU, UK and some other upper tier teams with a number of 6’10-7’0” who can match up physically with him, but not NU whose main big guy is excellent, but only 6’8”, 230-235 lbs. and has only 5 fouls to give.

Izzo’s game plan was to pound it inside and our response was to do the same thing we have done all year - man-to-man defense. Not going to cut it in very competitive Big 10.

Oh well, on to Sunday’s must win match up versus our in-state rival.
 

Medill90

Junior
Jan 30, 2011
6,910
321
0
NU got buried so there's no getting past that.

In the first half, MSU did not miss on all sorts of shots. Difficult runners, contested post shots, everything. NU similarly converted at a high rate. NU then regressed to the mean and MSU continued to hit 70+ percent, which continued well into the second half. Increasingly adding threes at a high conversion rate. Every MSU player on the floor hit his shots.

Physically, NU could not match MSU. Pardon was about equal with his man but NU had no one to put against the second big. Nowhere else was it close to even.

I do think zone would have helped but so much of what MSU did was in transition. They get the ball out so fast after makes that it's like a fast break off a missed shot or steal. Pretty impressive really.

NU has offered a couple '19 point guards in the last month. But NU needs more size, size that can play, if it's going to match up against a MSU.

One thing that would help offset what happened in the first half for an undersized team is three point shooting. NU didn't do horribly, but that was off very few shots. I don't know if teams are focusing on shutting down Taylor but there's a production/threat gap there.
 
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Catreporter

Senior
Sep 4, 2007
4,956
431
83
we have no point guard
I'm going to give Collins a pass on this. Lathan's loss at the time we lost him(in June) was HUGE. However, I agree that Collins needs to rethink his Duke defensive strategy (all man, no zone). I have very few expectations for this season and even the euphoric comeback against DePaul and the one that fell just short vs. #2 Michigan did not change my mind. This is a rebuild after the historic breakthrough.
 

Fitz51

Senior
Oct 21, 2008
10,115
649
0
Games like last night show why, for a team that cannot really go toe-to-toe with the absolute best of the conference on a consistent basis, coin-flip games like the three we lost before it are of the utmost importance to win. Needed at least one - and comfortably two - of Indiana, Oklahoma, and Michigan.
 

TejasCat

Sophomore
Apr 5, 2010
3,032
124
63
There is always next year! Oh wait, we lose our 3 double-digit scorers. Who puts the ball in the basket next year?
 

wildcatpn

Sophomore
Oct 26, 2005
3,315
190
63
I'm going to give Collins a pass on this. Lathan's loss at the time we lost him(in June) was HUGE. However, I agree that Collins needs to rethink his Duke defensive strategy (all man, no zone). I have very few expectations for this season and even the euphoric comeback against DePaul and the one that fell just short vs. #2 Michigan did not change my mind. This is a rebuild after the historic breakthrough.
If this is a rebuild then next year is a redesign, rebuild whatever you want to call it because it looks very scary without Pardon and Law. Bottom line is there are certain players that have not developed under Collins and some of the most heralded players have not contributed much early in their careers. I'm with TheC as i am starting to question Collins coaching ability.
 

loyolacat

Redshirt
Oct 21, 2006
2,697
47
48
Not exactly sure what the plan would be based upon what I think I see..which is almost all of our guys have a slow first step defensively....which gets us behind the 8ball as soon as the opposition player puts the ball on the floor....then we are immediately trying to help...and sometimes leaves big holes in the defense......Do not know the answer to this ...but also on the flip side, offensive side of the ball we do not have anyone who can put the ball on the floor and break a defense down.....so we seem pretty darn defense-able on offense........in summary it seems to be a lack of 1,2 and small 3s on this roster....for almost 3 years now. While the damage was done inside by MSU it was the ability of their point guard to set up the offense in such a way that they got the looks inside they wanted. I think this roster weakness also really hurts us in last possession situations where we have trouble getting a good shot
 

Max_Power

Junior
May 29, 2001
2,947
214
51
I don't have a lot of time right now but here's the thing, there is a reason why when teams breakthrough that many disappear for a few years and then re emerge (See Nebraska, Minnesota). Its not easy to win . Collins broke through but there was not a lot of star power on the roster behind the initial classes. Some decent players but really not a star. Think of the Nance / Kopp class as year one of the new NU. Start judging the process when they are Juniors.
 

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,095
1,168
62
I don't have a lot of time right now but here's the thing, there is a reason why when teams breakthrough that many disappear for a few years and then re emerge (See Nebraska, Minnesota). Its not easy to win . Collins broke through but there was not a lot of star power on the roster behind the initial classes. Some decent players but really not a star. Think of the Nance / Kopp class as year one of the new NU. Start judging the process when they are Juniors.
This certainly gives me something to cling to, which is kinda' what I'm looking for right now. So, thanks!
 

DaCat

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
25,499
1,883
113
I do think zone would have helped but so much of what MSU did was in transition. They get the ball out so fast after makes that it's like a fast break off a missed shot or steal. Pretty impressive really.

One thing I noticed was that often when we missed a shot, there were 3 MSU players fighting among themselves for a rebound and not a single purple shirt, or on occasion only Pardon. Our guys were told to drop back to take away the transition, and MSU still beat us in transition many times.
 
May 29, 2001
45,734
386
0
WARNING: While most of my negative posting is usually reserved for in-game lunatic rants, this is going to be a negative post. And this one is scarier, because its a next-morning, in a calm state negative post. If you hate my negative posts, then hit your back button now. Better still, tell me why I'm wrong, because I hope I am wrong.

Doubt is creeping in for me, and not just about this year's team. I never had very high expectations for them due to so much that was unknown coming into the year. Sadly, doubt is also creeping in regarding Chris Collins.

It really began after last year. Last year was a disaster. This was a team that almost knocked off eventual Final Four participant Gonzaga in the round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament in 2017 and was returning just about every important player. It should have been an incredible year for NU hoops. Instead, this team fell apart. Not making the tournament was one disappointment, but to not even finish above .500 was a colossal collapse. Now, we may never know the complete story behind last year's failure, but its hard not to pin some of that on the head coach.

The doubt crept back again last night during that painful stretch after the 8-minute timeout. MSU went on a run and they were awesome. Credit to MSU. But what concerned me was just how bad, out-of-control, rattled and undisciplined we looked - even a 5th-year senior like Vic Law looked lost. Coach called a timeout and we came out of it looking even worse. I didn't expect him to have some magic elixir to slow down MSU, but I did expect him to regain control of his team so that they stopped beating themselves. Instead, we took horrible, forced shots, left guys wide-open and just looked like a playground team instead of a well-coached BIG team. It appeared as if Collins either didn't know what to tell his guys or else they weren't listening. Either is a bad sign.

I've never known what to think about Collins' in-game coaching. However, the one thing we do celebrate about Coach Collins is his recruiting. And he has brought some of the highest rated recruits to Evanston. But if you stop and look at his track record, there is cause for concern. To date, he has brought in 6 4-star recruits. I would argue that one of them has been a hit (Law), three have been, I'm sorry to say, busts and two are TBD (though they aren't exactly lighting things up their freshman year). Therefore, while I want to get pumped up about his recruiting, it hasn't exactly been as exciting as it might have appeared. Combine that with the fact that we have very little talent in our sophomore and junior classes right now and its very worrying.

Now, I'm not off the band wagon yet. In addition to the 4-star recruits, its great having a coach who gets his team to play defense the way the Cats do. That is encouraging. We'll always have 2016-2017. But late at night, in the back of my mind..... doubt is creeping in.
Once again, you are being too emotional. I keep telling you but you don't listen.
This team and Coach Collins are talented. First, to refresh your memory. After BC got fired, Coach Collins has increased the win totals each year, until last year. Last year was a very uncompetitive exception. Can't hold that against him. With BC recruits he was 10-10 in the BIG prior to last year. Was close to taking us to the Big Dance when Olah was a senior. And then took us to the dance when Taphorn and Sanjay were the last remaining BC guys. So, we know he can coach, so that answers that question.

Recruiting: You may have a point here. He has struggled with guards. Vasser and Brown had conflicts with the coach. Lathon never arrived. BMAC and Lindsay were good but 2 out of 5 isn't going to do it. All of the 4 stars have been a complete disaster except Law, Benson, Kopp, Nance (Nance looks like nobody has ever worked with him, so he is a project). Benson is looking serviceable. Kopp looks like a future stud and is already looking good.

All of that said, his team is playing great basketball but isn't deep. Don't be shell shocked about MSU, that's one of the top 5 best teams in the NCAA. It is simply wrong to judge this team on that MSU loss. You wouldn't judge Fitz and our football team's seasons over our continued losses to OSU.

The reality is that we are 0-3 and had a brutal BigTen schedule to open the season. We should be 1-3 after Sunday but then we have to play Micigan. So we will be 1-4. But from watching all of the other BigTen teams, I think we are towards the top. Since we won't have to play Michigan/MSU anymore, I think we can pick up some consecutive wins. The key will be if we can beat Indy at home. Indy and Lankford look like the 3rd best team other than maybe OSU.
Whatever the case, the only team we won't match up with too well in the tournament is MSU. Indy's size also bothers us but our wings should do well.

10-10 or better in the Big. Toss in a win or two in the tournament and we ought t be in the dance.
 

freewillie07

Sophomore
Aug 22, 2017
5,240
100
33
There are SEVENTEEN Big Ten games left. Relax.

I have been on the record saying that Collins has not been as successful as many think when it comes to recruiting, particularly at guard. And yet, he managed to break through and make the NCAA Tournament. He got a major upgrade to Welsh Ryan Arena. He’s in on a lot of talented prospects in the years ahead. I’m not even close to giving up yet, not on Collins nor on this season.

I think people are just overreacting in part because the football team had a very successful season, and the basketball team’s struggles stand in contrast to that.

Just beat Illinois, and we’ll go from there.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,091
2,516
113
Games like last night show why, for a team that cannot really go toe-to-toe with the absolute best of the conference on a consistent basis, coin-flip games like the three we lost before it are of the utmost importance to win. Needed at least one - and comfortably two - of Indiana, Oklahoma, and Michigan.
Michigan is a coin flip game? They are #2 in the country.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,091
2,516
113
There are SEVENTEEN Big Ten games left. Relax.

I have been on the record saying that Collins has not been as successful as many think when it comes to recruiting, particularly at guard. And yet, he managed to break through and make the NCAA Tournament. He got a major upgrade to Welsh Ryan Arena. He’s in on a lot of talented prospects in the years ahead. I’m not even close to giving up yet, not on Collins nor on this season.

I think people are just overreacting in part because the football team had a very successful season, and the basketball team’s struggles stand in contrast to that.

Just beat Illinois, and we’ll go from there.
I know it sounds strange, but I don’t see us getting waxed like that again. MSU is the most talented team in the Big Ten and we were completely off. As mentioned above, losing the incoming PG really hurt this team. Law had a night to forget, but I think he is the most talented player we have had here in a decade. Pardon needs help inside. Yesterday was the perfect time to experiment with Pardon and Benson playing together. NU wasn’t coming back to win.

Next year, we likely will nosedive. However, I think we will see quantum leaps from both Nance and Kopp. Nance will stop deferring and Kopp will improve enough on defensive to stay on the court. My one criticism of CCC is that he yanks the young guys really quickly after an error. We have to build some confidence for these players and they can play timid at times now.

We are going to upset a few good teams.
 

NUCat320

Senior
Dec 4, 2005
19,469
495
0
Michigan is a coin flip game? They are #2 in the country.
It was a 62-60 blowout that Northwestern never had a chance in. Is that what you’re suggesting?

Fitz is simply stating that NU would’ve been a lot better off if they’d won that game that was decided in the final two minutes. You’d agree, I presume.

I am not very optimistic about this team going forward. Doubt is creeping in.

Doubt will dissipate somewhat if, against Illinois, NU a) plays inside-out and runs through its most important and consistent offensive player, Pardon, and b) gets quality minutes from both Nance and Kopp. (I think it’s good that Kopp and Nance combined for 12 attempts, even though they mostly missed. They need to believe they belong.)

I have no confidence in NU’s ability to score.
 

Katatonic

Sophomore
Oct 23, 2004
86,854
134
0
The C -

You are totally correct in many of the points/issues you brought up in your post.

Back when CC was hired and was in his 1st season leading the purple - had stated that as long as CC was going to stick to a normal scheme, he had better up the recruiting (a good bit) and get better/more talented players as wouldn't be able to cover for some of the deficiencies via scheme.

From what I have seen thus far, can't say that CC is a wizard when it comes to X's and O's, but that's not a strike on CC as pretty much everyone at this level is pretty good w/ X's and O's (aside from a few coaches who clearly were the wrong hires at this level); plus, it's James who is often the one who draws up w/ that special play.

However, like some of the posts have already mentioned, CC makes some puzzling moves or non-moves - such as not switching to zone (in the past, he would eventually switch to zone, but kinda late).

One of the more puzzling moves was in his 1st year when he had the 'Cats in an up-tempo O - which, for a short-staffed. defensive oriented team was exhausting.

CC eventually slowed things down around the time conf. play began, but don't know why it took so long to change, much less why it was a good idea to begin w/.

OK - call that a rookie mistake and the trials of learning his team (even tho, it seemed pretty obvious).

But all coaches make blunders when it comes to gameplan and adjustments (or lack thereof); even the best ones like Izzo and CC's mentor.

The bigger issue is that recruiting hasn't exactly panned out enough - too many misses and not enough frosh ready to contribute immediately.

Like I had stated many a time, can't expect every incoming recruit to be an impact player at the start, but out of 3-4 frosh, need at least 1 to be so.

That was a problem w/ BC's teams (even when they started to get some talent).

After VV used up his eligibility, Coble (in 2006 - gee, has it been that long?) came in to fill the void.

The next season, Juice joined the team and w/ Moore, formed a pretty decent trio on O; but a post-season bound team needs more than that.

The next season, the baby-faced assassin joined the team and 'Cats finished w/ a 8-10 conf. record and made the NIT.

Shurna needed a little bit of seasoning, plus BC didn't play Coble & Shurna too much together, but there were high expectations for the following season and we all know what happened next.

Crawford joined the team, but he basically replaced the production of Moore and Shurna had to replace Coble's production instead of being the 2-headed monster in the front court.

Point is, there was enough talent coming in to replace outgoing talent, but never quite enough altogether at a time, esp. when injuries or other things transpired.

That 2009-10 could have been a Tourney bound team w/ Coble, Shurna, Juice and Crawford, along w/ Nash, Mirk and Marco.

The next team which had enough talent was the 2012-13 team w/ Crawford, Hearn, Swop, Cobb, Sobo and a young Demps and Lumpkin, but that team was hit by injury after injury (or illness) along w/ Cobb's suspension.

We're seeing a similar thing happening right now - not getting enough talent to off-set the losses (never-mind any injuries that crop up) in personnel and/or younger players not being quite ready.

And w/ CC's teams, having the talent is more important as there isn't a scheme to try to cover up for deficiencies.

CC wants to play straight-up like what Dook does, but the problem is that Dook is able to do so b/c they have loads of talent.

Having said this, don't have doubt as much as resigning myself to have more patience

While non of the frosh have been immediate impact players thus far, they may simply need time to develop.

Btw, as an aside, while Sobo has gotten plenty of flack here, how good would hos steady ball-handling and 8.3 ppg as a frosh look on this team?

While Nance, Kopp, etc.haven't been as immediately impactful as BMac, Law and Pardon - that doesn't mean that some of them won't end up being better players in the long run.

That, along w/ the incoming class, makes me take a longer view (requiring more patience), no matter what happens this season.

Not being able to pull out a win in those tight games against IU, UM and OU has really put the team behind the ball.
 

Katatonic

Sophomore
Oct 23, 2004
86,854
134
0
This team and Coach Collins are talented. First, to refresh your memory. After BC got fired, Coach Collins has increased the win totals each year, until last year. Last year was a very uncompetitive exception. Can't hold that against him. With BC recruits he was 10-10 in the BIG prior to last year. Was close to taking us to the Big Dance when Olah was a senior. And then took us to the dance when Taphorn and Sanjay were the last remaining BC guys. So, we know he can coach, so that answers that question.

That 2012-13 season which led to BC's firing was injury-filled (along w/ a suspension) so, not exactly a fair starting point.

Barring those circumstances, the 'Cats likely would have made their 5th consecutive post-season in a row.

Leading up to that ill-fated season, the 'Cats had finished 9th, 7th, 9th and 7th in the conf.

Before the run to the Tourney, CC's 1st 3 seasons had the 'Cats finishing 11th, 10th and 9th in the conf.
 

NJCat

All-Conference
Mar 7, 2016
21,326
1,501
113
I think a ranked Iowa team may have the answer for you...
NU flew their charter to East Lansing on Tuesday for the Wednesday night game. No classes, just a shoot around during the day Wednesday. A midweek away game no different than a weekend away game for B1G teams. They aren't exactly making a 5 hour school bus ride the day of the game anymore, dang it!!
 

willycat

Junior
Jan 11, 2005
21,448
318
0
I know it sounds strange, but I don’t see us getting waxed like that again. MSU is the most talented team in the Big Ten and we were completely off. As mentioned above, losing the incoming PG really hurt this team. Law had a night to forget, but I think he is the most talented player we have had here in a decade. Pardon needs help inside. Yesterday was the perfect time to experiment with Pardon and Benson playing together. NU wasn’t coming back to win.

Next year, we likely will nosedive. However, I think we will see quantum leaps from both Nance and Kopp. Nance will stop deferring and Kopp will improve enough on defensive to stay on the court. My one criticism of CCC is that he yanks the young guys really quickly after an error. We have to build some confidence for these players and they can play timid at times now.

We are going to upset a few good teams.
Losing Lathon, especially the timing has set the stage for a mediocre season. Just can't imagine why he was let go and yet is playing for another NCAA program. At the very least the administration should have investigated him more thoroughly and made their decision much, much earlier.
 

Sec_112

Sophomore
Jun 17, 2001
6,599
195
63
I don't blame you, The C. "Creep" is a good word for where my head is going also.

As I said previously, I'm not expecting a lot out of this season. I've seen this act in the past. Excitement about a string of "close losses" suddenly turns into horror halfway through the season when the team never gets over the hump.

There have also been a slew of signals that an MSU-like performances will be the norm this year against very good teams. The board can tell me all it wants about wins against mediocre teams, but each of those games had a bad stretch that you can't get away with against good teams.

I've seen that story in the past also.

Then, like you, C, I start to take a macro view of the program. I'm having some of the same questions about where this is going. But you might consider your list doesn't have a whole lot of pros to go with the cons.

Here's an attempt to show where I am, and also talk about a few of your concerns.

Cons
  • Lead guard, point guard, lead guard - Yes, it's a mess. And I agree that Collins gets a bit of a pass for Lathon. However, this isn't a one year thing. There hasn't been a - let's set the bar low - acceptable replacement for BMac for three years. It's not simply that there's no starting point guard this year. There also hasn't been that Greer-like-talent backup who would have been developing and a sixth-man on a good team. That would have provided a starter and a good system guy on this team.
  • Second and third options - This is what really worries me. This is where some of the creep is for me. The ongoing NU problem through coach after coach is that you see lineups with key players who are your second and third recruiting options at various positions with HUGE, one-dimensional holes in their game. I'm not talking about the 12th or 13th man on a roster. Those guys shouldn't be playing and don't matter. It's a problem at both guard spots this year. It's a problem with the guards off the bench also, and so far there's only one possible change to it next year.
OTOH, there are some pros you're ignoring.
  • Last year, but ... - Yes, last year was a disaster. Collins admitted as much and said he did a poor job having the team prepared. But in our macro view, NOBODY expected 16-17 team to be the year it was. It's obvious 17-18 was planned to be THE year, but you can't ignore why expectation were so high. That's a good thing.

  • Four-star "busts" - You can't talk about the "busts" and ignore the three-star (at-best) guys who have played at an all-conference level. We're not really going to leave BMac and Pardon out of the discussion, are we? But yes, CC needs more of those guys.

  • Obviously addressing some problems - I've said in the past, the size of this team has always been a problem for me. Tell me all you want about positionless basketball, but you need a mismatch at one of the five for that to work. Otherwise, you're just undersized. It's pretty obvious the staff has acknowledged that and addressed it well.
This year and next year are going to be tough, so I've purchased the matches to fire up the hot seats. But I'm not nearly ready to light them them yet.

This is still Northwestern, and getting guys in the school is a problem. Every NU coach deserves a long string. I'm with LoyolaCat. I'm cautiously hopeful. I want to see where this is in Nance and Kopp's junior and senior years.
 

Medill90

Junior
Jan 30, 2011
6,910
321
0
I think TheC, Katatonic and Sec 112 all make excellent points.

The program is now going through a period where one can forecast a spectrum of outcomes, some unfortunate. I buy the advice...maybe it was MikeWebb....of giving it a couple years.

This will be overly simplistic, but my thinking is so cursed.

On the roster and the player development....all of that....I am very much of the belief that Collins only offers kids he thinks can compete in the Big Ten. I'm pretty confident he could fill the roster every year if he so chose, but I think he wants to the competition in practice to be at a Big Ten level....not a Big Ten team playing a Mac team. And yes, NU admissions are a huge hurdle to fill out the roster with Big Ten players.

I also want to note that Benson and Rap's year was considered a very down year for recruiting. At the time they committed, they were ranked as two of the top four players in Illinois. We were pretty excited, IIRC. Isiah Brown was a throw in and turned out to be most productive among the three.

The next year the focus was on the 4* kid from Belleville who went to SLU at the eleventh hour to a new coach with Belleville connections. He said he was headed to NU.

Lots of shoulda, coulda. My point is that the margin is thinner for NU than its competitive set, as we all know. Collins has done well on a quality level.

The loss of Lathon combined with the very near miss on the Belleville kid has thinned the PG spot.

My big concern is the bigs. 320 asked elsewhere how the Ryan Young kid is doing. MSU has four air craft carriers on their roster and one or two coming in. NU has Pardon, who is smaller than the MSU bigs. I question if Benson is really a 5 or better suited at 4 (in a slower paced offense, and zone defense).

There aren't a lot of quality bigs. Even fewer bigs with the academics for NU. Talking single digits. I just can't put that on Collins.

The issue is that through a variety of events the guard rotation is soft now and probably next year (though I like Greer and think he's capable). So, soft at the top and soft at the bottom.

On the positives....new facilities, Collins, and what looks to be a competitive program on the rise. Despite last year, there is still some shine and a vibe around Collins. It's what Rick Telander once said to me about Pat Fitzgerald, "he can get into the living room of any recruit in the country." That.

With all the bumps, the program has never been better positioned. Success last year could have been transformational for recruiting. That has passed. But it can still happen, still is positioned to happen. Still has the talent in coaching to happen.
 

macarthur31

Sophomore
Nov 9, 2006
1,586
146
63
This year was going to be tough, with or without Lathon given Collins hasn't been able to develop an adequate Lead Guard in the post-BMac era: Vassar never had it, Brown didn't fit the system, and ultimately Ash succumbed to injuries. Just hit on 1 of those 3, and we'd have a puncher's chance at 10-10 in a robust B1G season. Even if Lathon started for the 'Cats from Day 1, he'd be having growing pains - he's currently a 100 ORtg player on a middlin' C-USA squad. For '19, I'm not so sure we'd be that much better off. (I could argue that the fact that we were only 1 possession down in those three Ls vs quality oppo was due to the Gaines/Law/Turner triumverate, and given Taylor as as scoring threat I'm not sure he sits.)

Throw onto that Ivanauskas and Falzon (maybe too early to write him off, but color me pessimistic), and Collins has had about as many misses as he had as hits.

With Welsh-Ryan and Trienens renovated, Collins has the wind at his back with regards to recruiting. I'm confident he'll be able to get the athletes he needs to play "straight up" ball. Nebraska and Penn State seem to be trending up as a result of staying patient with their coaches - I expect the 'Cats will also be joining that upward trend shortly.
 

DaCat

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
25,499
1,883
113
I think (hope) that we are at the low point in the season. 0-3 in the B1G, 9-5 overall. First 3 games were @ Indiana, #2 Michigan, and @ #8 MSU. That's about as tough as a schedule can get.

Just beat LOLinois and get the season turned around.
 

NJCat

All-Conference
Mar 7, 2016
21,326
1,501
113
Just beat LOLinois and get the season turned around.
Sunday is a must-win for NU. And Illinois gave IU a good run last night. Not an easy game no matter what the Illini's record is. Their frantic defense will cause problems for the Cats.
 

Styre

Senior
Oct 14, 2004
7,728
401
83
The problem boils down to three straight barren recruiting classes. Collins' second, third, and fourth classes brought in 7 players:
1 high-level starter (Pardon)
1 starter (Gaines)
2 bench guys (Ash, Benson)
1 injured (Falzon)
2 left program (Rap, Brown)

Three full recruiting cycles left NU with a total of 2 starters and 2 backups. That's unsustainable at any level. Collins has done his best to plug holes with transfers, but the only way out of this current situation is time and recruiting. Imagine what we'd look like this year if Law hadn't missed a season, too.

None of this means I'm ready to give up on Collins, but recruiting has to get better. The Lathon thing wasn't at all his fault, but we need to see this year's freshmen really take a step forward next year. Kopp plays like an eventual regular Big Ten starter, so that's a great start.
 
Dec 24, 2010
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It has taken a while, but I like what I'm seeing out of Benson's minutes on the floor and if he keeps working at it I think he will be a fine starting center next year, hopefully with Young getting some minutes of court time experience under his belt as backup.

I don't know how it works in general across D1 programs, how typical is 4 of 7?
 

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,095
1,168
62
It has taken a while, but I like what I'm seeing out of Benson's minutes on the floor and if he keeps working at it I think he will be a fine starting center next year, hopefully with Young getting some minutes of court time experience under his belt as backup.

I don't know how it works in general across D1 programs, how typical is 4 of 7?
Man, I don't see that at all. I think we're in big trouble in the paint next year.
 

NUCatswin

Redshirt
Apr 18, 2018
431
27
27
Losing Lathon, especially the timing has set the stage for a mediocre season. Just can't imagine why he was let go and yet is playing for another NCAA program. At the very least the administration should have investigated him more thoroughly and made their decision much, much earlier.
The administration is not to blame for the timing. I too am shocked he is playing for UTEP but I guess they simply don’t care
 

DaCat

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
25,499
1,883
113
The administration is not to blame for the timing. I too am shocked he is playing for UTEP but I guess they simply don’t care

I still don't know what the hell happened to Lathon, only that it must've been misbehavior of catastrophic proportions for his scholarship to be revoked. It wouldn't happen, if for example, he had been caught smoking weed. The strange part is there seems to be no criminal or illegal element to the story.
 

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,095
1,168
62
I still don't know what the hell happened to Lathon, only that it must've been misbehavior of catastrophic proportions for his scholarship to be revoked. It wouldn't happen, if for example, he had been caught smoking weed. The strange part is there seems to be no criminal or illegal element to the story.
Its hard not to be curious.
 
Dec 24, 2010
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Man, I don't see that at all. I think we're in big trouble in the paint next year.
I expect Benson will need more help against athletic centers than Pardon does, but so far this year I've seen Benson show some post moves, a willingness to take (and hit) little jumpers, and a much stronger grip on the ball preventing the other team from just taking it away from him on passes and rebounds. He's stripped a few balls, blocked a few passes, and generally shown a much higher situational awareness of the game around him than he has in previous years.

I'm not suggesting he'll be a star, but I have seen positive development in all aspects of his game. Pardon seems a rare gem and the best center we've had in almost 20 years, I don't hold out hopes of easily replacing him.
 

Jeffrey Cat

Redshirt
Jan 29, 2005
604
10
0
I still don't know what the hell happened to Lathon, only that it must've been misbehavior of catastrophic proportions for his scholarship to be revoked. It wouldn't happen, if for example, he had been caught smoking weed. The strange part is there seems to be no criminal or illegal element to the story.
I don’t have any insight as to what he did but I can tell you that I was working out at home in Glenview when I ran into a person I have know casually for about twenty five years, who is about as close as anyone can be to Chris. He volunteered that Lathon, who Chris was very high on had his scholarship pulled because of a very big mistake by the young man. Chris was very disappointed, but Northwestern has standards that many other schools do not and he just could not be allowed entrance with this hanging out on him.

I also have some info, strictly from the internet, on the 2019 class. Jared Jones’ high school McEchron, Georgia won the City of Palms holiday tournament down here at Florida SW Collge in Fort Myers. This is a big tourney with national TV coverage on ESPNU. Jones, who is 6/9, was all tournament and got rave reviews from the so called experts down here. A recruiting coup they are calling it down here. I suspect he will report directly to Brian James, who has worked endlessly with Derek Pardon.

The same recruiting site says Buie is the best guard in the New England prep school league, and Robbie Beran, from Richmond and one of the top ranked players in the country (76) is the best of the group and will start at the four spot next year. He is 6/9 and filling out at 210 plus.

They are also hard on the trail of another two guard or maybe a combo type of guy, who can also play point guard.

The net effect boys is don’t hold your head in the mud to long, the coaching staff is digging deep for players.
 

willycat

Junior
Jan 11, 2005
21,448
318
0
The administration is not to blame for the timing. I too am shocked he is playing for UTEP but I guess they simply don’t care
Maybe not but why was the offer pulled so late in the recruiting cycle? If Collins and the administration aren't to blame, then who is?
 

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,806
163
43
I'm going to give Collins a pass on this. Lathan's loss at the time we lost him(in June) was HUGE. However, I agree that Collins needs to rethink his Duke defensive strategy (all man, no zone). I have very few expectations for this season and even the euphoric comeback against DePaul and the one that fell just short vs. #2 Michigan did not change my mind. This is a rebuild after the historic breakthrough.

No pass from me on this. He went with Mac w. No competent backup. Put all his eggs in the Latham basket. He should have two workable LGs on every team and maybe a third trying to take a shirt.

If someone says it isn’t easy, I agree. But then ask if you believe that CCC has superior recruiting skills? If so, then make it happen.

And I don’t think he is great at Xs and Os, but if he has an assistant that can draw a play, he can teach and develop, he can recruit and he can run a high character program - then I can live without him being a game day guy.

But the LG problem is on him. He has lived in the edge of one guard and now he lost. His fault.
 

xxxbobxxx

Sophomore
Mar 12, 2005
10,806
163
43
If this is a rebuild then next year is a redesign, rebuild whatever you want to call it because it looks very scary without Pardon and Law. Bottom line is there are certain players that have not developed under Collins and some of the most heralded players have not contributed much early in their careers. I'm with TheC as i am starting to question Collins coaching ability.

Only because I get sooooo much **** around here, I started raising all these concerns long ago. Not happy about it, but just saying, cuz some folks mocked me terribly.