Dow opening in a few. Probably won't do much today.
- Thread starter PriddyBoy
- Start date
The Dow crossed the 21,000 mark for the first time on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's measured tone in his first speech to Congress lifted optimism and investors viewed a looming interest rate hike as a glass half full.
In order to increase the Dow at the same rate Obama did it would have to be about 50,000 when Trump leaves office on 21 Jan 2025, should he win a 2nd term that is. I'm not holding my breath.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/10/investing/obama-stock-market-trump/
But if earnings keep humming along under Trump and economic growth picks up thanks to plans to boost infrastructure spending and other stimulus, then maybe the Dow will be above 45,000 (or even 60,000) by the time he's leaving the White House.
Economic growth was higher during the Reagan and Clinton years than it has been under Obama.
So scoff if you want at the notion that the Dow could hit gaudy targets like 45,000 or 60,000 within the next few years.
But just remember that it seemed equally laughable for the Dow to pass round number milestones like 2,000, 10,000 and 15,000 under Reagan, Clinton and Obama.
Yet they did.
But if earnings keep humming along under Trump and economic growth picks up thanks to plans to boost infrastructure spending and other stimulus, then maybe the Dow will be above 45,000 (or even 60,000) by the time he's leaving the White House.
Economic growth was higher during the Reagan and Clinton years than it has been under Obama.
So scoff if you want at the notion that the Dow could hit gaudy targets like 45,000 or 60,000 within the next few years.
But just remember that it seemed equally laughable for the Dow to pass round number milestones like 2,000, 10,000 and 15,000 under Reagan, Clinton and Obama.
Yet they did.
Up 231 to this point. May be some profit taking later today. I think this is the largest bull run for any new President. Consumer confidence hit a 15 year high just yesterday, before the speech. I am sure that is part of the surge.
The measure of success will not be the level of the Dow but rather our GDP growth. GDP growth is everything because it impacts all aspects of our economics lives.
Obama averaged 1.66% annual GP growth, the lowest since the Great Depression. Let's see if trump's policies beat that figure.
The measure of success will not be the level of the Dow but rather our GDP growth. GDP growth is everything because it impacts all aspects of our economics lives.
Obama averaged 1.66% annual GP growth, the lowest since the Great Depression. Let's see if trump's policies beat that figure.
https://hudson.org/research/12714-economic-growth-by-president
lol...
Here is the complete list of average annual real GDP growth by postwar president (in descending order):
Johnson (1964-68), 5.3%
Kennedy (1961-63), 4.3%
Clinton (1993-2000), 3.9%
Reagan (1981-88), 3.5%
Carter (1977-80), 3.3%
Eisenhower (1953-60), 3.0%
(Post-WWII average: 2.9%)
Nixon (1969-74), 2.8%
Ford (1975-76), 2.6%
G. H. W. Bush (1989-92), 2.3%
G. W. Bush (2001-08), 2.1%
Truman (1946-52), 1.7%
Obama (2009-15), 1.5%
(According to the BEA, real GDP growth in 2016 has been 0.8 percent in the first quarter and 1.2 percent in the second quarter. Those figures, being from an incomplete year, are not included in President Obama’s tally. If economic growth does not improve over the rest of 2016, however, his overall tally would drop slightly.)
Another way to examine economic success under various presidents is to look at whether the economy ever really grew significantly on their watch. President Harry Truman’s average, for example, is held down dramatically by his having been in office in the immediate aftermath of WWII. In 1946, the economy severely retracted, with a decline in real GDP that was more than four times as large (-11.6 percent) as in any year since. Indeed, one could argue that, from an economic perspective, 1946 should be regarded as part of the WWII era—it clearly was influenced by the war—rather than as part of the post-WWII era. From 1947-onward, average annual real GDP growth in the postwar era (again, through 2015) has been 3.2 percent.
But the economy also truly flourished during portions of Truman’s tenure. In fact, Truman’s best year of economic growth (8.7 percent, in 1950) was better than any other postwar president’s best year. At the other end of the spectrum, President Obama’s best year of economic growth (2.6 percent, in 2015) has been weaker than any other postwar president’s.
The following chart shows the best year of real GDP growth under each postwar president (full size JPG here):
Here is the complete list of the best year of real GDP growth under each postwar president (in descending order):
Truman (1950), 8.7%
Reagan (1984), 7.3%
Eisenhower (1955), 7.1%
Johnson (1966), 6.6%
Kennedy (1962), 6.1%
Nixon (1973), 5.6%
Carter ((1978), 5.6%
(Average best year for post-WWII presidents: 5.6%)
Ford (1976), 5.4%
Clinton (1999), 4.7%
G. W. Bush (2004), 3.8%
G. H. W. Bush (1989), 3.7%
(Average for all postwar years: 2.9%)
Obama (2015), 2.6%
lol...
Here is the complete list of average annual real GDP growth by postwar president (in descending order):
Johnson (1964-68), 5.3%
Kennedy (1961-63), 4.3%
Clinton (1993-2000), 3.9%
Reagan (1981-88), 3.5%
Carter (1977-80), 3.3%
Eisenhower (1953-60), 3.0%
(Post-WWII average: 2.9%)
Nixon (1969-74), 2.8%
Ford (1975-76), 2.6%
G. H. W. Bush (1989-92), 2.3%
G. W. Bush (2001-08), 2.1%
Truman (1946-52), 1.7%
Obama (2009-15), 1.5%
(According to the BEA, real GDP growth in 2016 has been 0.8 percent in the first quarter and 1.2 percent in the second quarter. Those figures, being from an incomplete year, are not included in President Obama’s tally. If economic growth does not improve over the rest of 2016, however, his overall tally would drop slightly.)
Another way to examine economic success under various presidents is to look at whether the economy ever really grew significantly on their watch. President Harry Truman’s average, for example, is held down dramatically by his having been in office in the immediate aftermath of WWII. In 1946, the economy severely retracted, with a decline in real GDP that was more than four times as large (-11.6 percent) as in any year since. Indeed, one could argue that, from an economic perspective, 1946 should be regarded as part of the WWII era—it clearly was influenced by the war—rather than as part of the post-WWII era. From 1947-onward, average annual real GDP growth in the postwar era (again, through 2015) has been 3.2 percent.
But the economy also truly flourished during portions of Truman’s tenure. In fact, Truman’s best year of economic growth (8.7 percent, in 1950) was better than any other postwar president’s best year. At the other end of the spectrum, President Obama’s best year of economic growth (2.6 percent, in 2015) has been weaker than any other postwar president’s.
The following chart shows the best year of real GDP growth under each postwar president (full size JPG here):
Here is the complete list of the best year of real GDP growth under each postwar president (in descending order):
Truman (1950), 8.7%
Reagan (1984), 7.3%
Eisenhower (1955), 7.1%
Johnson (1966), 6.6%
Kennedy (1962), 6.1%
Nixon (1973), 5.6%
Carter ((1978), 5.6%
(Average best year for post-WWII presidents: 5.6%)
Ford (1976), 5.4%
Clinton (1999), 4.7%
G. W. Bush (2004), 3.8%
G. H. W. Bush (1989), 3.7%
(Average for all postwar years: 2.9%)
Obama (2015), 2.6%