So the WSJ/NBC poll released earlier today with Cruz up on Trump by a slight margin, but other polls released today show Trump ahead by double digits, including a 20 pt lead in the newest Reuters poll which was released in the last hour or so. Who is fudging numbers?
Dueling Polls
- Thread starter ThatNehlenFeelin
- Start date
I posted a link to the NY Times which used the Quinnipiac poll and it showed a 20 point lead for Trump. It also showed Bernie and Hillary within 2 points (44 to 42) in a national poll. Also saw reference on national evening news (NBC and/or CBS) which correlated to the numbers you reference. I agree, what's up?
The one that had a small lead for Cruz was a national poll. The ones with Trump with double digit leads are in SC only.
I heard a story about this yesterday, maybe the day before, and they were talking similar margins for Trump in SC only. My mistake assuming that this was the same thing.
In the linked story they mention how many Ds and Rs were polled. They make no mention of independents. I wonder if that means none were polled or they failed to mention the number of them polled. That probably doesn't make a big difference in the numbers for the nominations - not many states let everyone vote in a primary. It does matter for the question of who would win in the general.
Since the landline/cellphone tipping point a number of years back, polling services who relied on phone surveys as their backbone have a narrower and older slice of the pie to work with. The accuracy of such polls is going out the window.
On the other hand, if you decide to rely heavily on online poling you run the risk of your poll being skewed by non-voters such as underage kids and felons.
On the other hand, if you decide to rely heavily on online poling you run the risk of your poll being skewed by non-voters such as underage kids and felons.
Interesting that, again, the WSJ/NBC poll shows Trump in a tight race in SC. After other SC polls show a double digit lead.