Duke and NU

[Palindrome_rivals517509]

In the game thread covering the second-half vs Michigan , DaCat says in part, "We may never be at a level of talent of say a Duke (but then, why not?)".

Why not?, indeed. Got me thinking about Duke’s hoops program history -- in which I was already interested after seeing the 30 for 30 episode, “I Hate Christian Laettner” (really well done, btw).

What I learned, and what many of you may already realize: Duke was not always what they have become. In a stretch from the ’72-73 through ’76-77 seasons, Duke’s record in conference games was 13-47, which is pretty NU-esque. Dovetailing into that period, Bill Foster’s record at Duke from ’74-75 through ’79-80 in conference was 31-43 (.419), leading to the hiring of Coach K. Coach Carmody was 70-136 in Big Ten play (.339), worse than Foster at Duke, but not a LOT worse, that leading to the hiring of Chris Collins.

How did Mike Krzyzewski do, starting out? In his first three years, Duke was 13-29 in conference, a .319 win rate, and below his predecessor, Foster. That’s in Carmody territory. Then they went 15-15 in years 4 and 5 combined. So first five years, 28-44 (.389). It wasn’t until his 6th season that he had a .500+ year in conference play. And it took him 8 seasons before his cumulative conference W/L record at Duke edged up over 50%, at 58-56.

And then Christian Laettner happened. We could use a Christian Laettner.

DaCat also says we can, “... still be very competitive if Collins turns out to be the coach that most of [us] think he is....”

Amen, at least if it were to read, “the coach that most of us expect him to become”. Especially if CCC can recruit a Christian Laettner kind of talent with that kind of drive to win in the near future, along with a few excellent supporting cast members. Wouldn’t it be nice to be hated like Duke is for a change?

Note: I did the numbers on the back of an envelope in the wee small hours, so I might not have gotten them precisely right ... but I’m sure they’re close enough to support the points.

 

[NJCat83588]

In the game thread covering the second-half vs Michigan , DaCat says in part, "We may never be at a level of talent of say a Duke (but then, why not?)".

Why not?, indeed. Got me thinking about Duke’s hoops program history -- in which I was already interested after seeing the 30 for 30 episode, “I Hate Christian Laettner” (really well done, btw).

What I learned, and what many of you may already realize: Duke was not always what they have become. In a stretch from the ’72-73 through ’76-77 seasons, Duke’s record in conference games was 13-47, which is pretty NU-esque. Dovetailing into that period, Bill Foster’s record at Duke from ’74-75 through ’79-80 in conference was 31-43 (.419), leading to the hiring of Coach K. Coach Carmody was 70-136 in Big Ten play (.339), worse than Foster at Duke, but not a LOT worse, that leading to the hiring of Chris Collins.

How did Mike Krzyzewski do, starting out? In his first three years, Duke was 13-29 in conference, a .319 win rate, and below his predecessor, Foster. That’s in Carmody territory. Then they went 15-15 in years 4 and 5 combined. So first five years, 28-44 (.389). It wasn’t until his 6th season that he had a .500+ year in conference play. And it took him 8 seasons before his cumulative conference W/L record at Duke edged up over 50%, at 58-56.

And then Christian Laettner happened. We could use a Christian Laettner.

DaCat also says we can, “... still be very competitive if Collins turns out to be the coach that most of [us] think he is....”

Amen, at least if it were to read, “the coach that most of us expect him to become”. Especially if CCC can recruit a Christian Laettner kind of talent with that kind of drive to win in the near future, along with a few excellent supporting cast members. Wouldn’t it be nice to be hated like Duke is for a change?

Note: I did the numbers on the back of an envelope in the wee small hours, so I might not have gotten them precisely right ... but I’m sure they’re close enough to support the points.

Firstly, you conveniently ignore the years before the 70's. They were a dominant Southern Conference team in the 20's and 30's, and ended up naming their arena for Coach Cameron. Vic Bubas had them finish ranked second in the country twice and 3rd once. Bill Foster had 3 consecutive top 20 finishes before leaving for Coach K. So while they had some lean years as you point out, overall their history is solid and in no way comparable to NU's.

Secondly, they have had the advantage of being led by one of the top 4 or 5 coaches of all time in Coach K. The guy is just a winner. His ability to recruit, motivate and in-game coach in unmatched. Look at what his team did against UNC this week: short handed going into the game, they lose a starting Guard to an ankle sprain and still beat UNC in Chapel Hill. He coaches rings around Roy Williams. There is no reason whatsoever to believe Chris Collins will be another Coach K......that guy is unique. And Collins doesn't have the tradition of success to sell that Duke does.

 

[Palindrome_rivals517509]

I am aware of that, NJCat, and I know there are “differences” (as always, when making comparisons of any sort). When researching this I read about coach Bubas and his coaching tree. My point was, and is, that a program can be turned around in a few years. And I would contend that is true regardless of its history. It DOES take institutional support, and a clear mission (like “taking the Purple to Pasadena” for example), but if you have those things and make smart choices, it can be done. We can learn from Duke, and we can attempt to emulate what Coach K has done, given the time to get it back on track.

As you point out Duke was top-20 ranked 3 times in the Foster years, despite his overall sub-.500 conference record (that caught me by surprise, actually). But during the final Bubas year, the next 5 years after he left, Foster’s first 3 seasons, and Coach K’s first three years, the Blue Devils were unranked. So, there were 3 “top-20 ranked" seasons in 15 during that stretch. If I were picking a fight, I might say you “conveniently ignore” that 15-year rather pedestrian record by picking the 3 years when the team performed very well. Of course, NU fans like myself would take those 15 years with a smile, but still ....

When Coach K took over, was he already a genius? I don’t know. He had a winning record at Army (73-59) but the final year there he was 9-17 and 10th in an 11-team (sort of) conference. He did not have a clearly distinguished record, not like Dick Bennett and Bo Ryan for example. Was it better than Collins’ record? Longer, surely, but he wasn’t associated with any outstanding team prior to Duke, was he? Then at Duke, Coach K went 13-29 in his first 3 conference seasons there. The kids he recruited, dare I say, were probably not enraptured by virtue of Duke’s record in the 20’s and 30’s (which is one reason I didn’t refer to that), and who knows if they had any impression of the Bubas years. They weren’t born yet when Bubas was there, given that Bubas coached through the ‘60s and then hung it up. Laettner was born in 1969, Hurley in 1971, Grant Hill in 1972. So they were “children of the Duke down years”.

So, what did Coach K have to sell his incoming guys in the early years? More that Collins has now, but it wasn’t all “tinsel and glitter” in Chapel Hill. Which, I suppose, is a testament to MK’s recruiting. But it took him YEARS to get Duke “elite” again after a pretty long buffet of mediocre seasons. Why can that not happen at Northwestern? We don’t know that it will, or even that it is likely, but if anyone says it “will never happen”, or “can never happen”, I think that’s a bridge too far.

 

[Sec_112]

Sorry, Palindrome, but I think you're skipping a couple of recruiting generations before Laettner.

If you want to make the comparison, I think you'd want to say NU needs to get even something close to Mark Alarie, David Henderson and Jay Bilas in a recruiting class. Unfortunately, they don't usually get players of that level, much less Johnny Dawkins to go with them.

Imagine if NU gets Tommy Amaker as a player. He was Duke's SIXTH leading scorer in 83-84. It's not just "that one player." It's depth also.

That group leads to the top ranked recruit in the country ... Danny Ferry. He was Laettner before Laettner.

 

[NJCat83588]

So, what did Coach K have to sell his incoming guys in the early years? More that Collins has now, but it wasn’t all “tinsel and glitter” in Chapel Hill. Which, I suppose, is a testament to MK’s recruiting. But it took him YEARS to get Duke “elite” again after a pretty long buffet of mediocre seasons. Why can that not happen at Northwestern? We don’t know that it will, or even that it is likely, but if anyone says it “will never happen”, or “can never happen”, I think that’s a bridge too far.

Note that Duke is in Durham, about 8 miles from UNC which is in Chapel Hill...

More seriously, I lived in Charlotte, NC when Coach K was hired at Duke, and the locals hated the hire. First, he was a Yankee, and had an unpronounceable name. Second, he was making the ACC look bad, and whilst most people in NC were either UNC or State fans, they hated Duke pulling down the rest of the conference. It was by no means obvious at the time that he was the right guy in Durham. Give whoever was the athletic director credit for an enlightened hire!

 

[DaCat]

I think the gist of Palindrome's OP was that it will take time for NU to get to the level of Duke, if ever. Rome wasn't built in a day, and thus, we need not despair yet that Collins' teams have yet to learn to win the close games against decent/good teams. Still is painful though.

 

[Palindrome_rivals517509]

I think the gist of Palindrome's OP was that it will take time for NU to get to the level of Duke, if ever. Rome wasn't built in a day, and thus, we need not despair yet that Collins' teams have yet to learn to win the close games against decent/good teams. Still is painful though.

Yes, DaCat, thank you; that was the intended gist. And, in addition, I was implying that because Duke figured out how to become Duke again after being pretty “unspecial” for while, Northwestern can aspire to figuring it out as well. Coach Lonberg had a nice 7-season run early in his coaching tenure with a conference record of 60-26 and four top 2 finishes in the conference. After that, we’ve fallen into a brief “unspecial” interlude ourselves, now about 80 seasons and eleven coaches worth. If it goes on much longer, discerning fans might start to notice!

Regarding the Duke comparison, one pushback I had expected to be mentioned is that Duke reportedly has relaxed its academic standards for potential basketball stars; maybe we haven’t matched that. Is that a missing link?

 

[Walker Fan]

Great analogy. It took a couple of years to get Duke rolling again. And yes, Dan Bernstein, a sports talk radio host in Chicago and a Duke alum who covered the Duke team in the late 1980s and maybe early 1990s has always pointed out that there were players from the early years of Coach K's regime like Phil Henderson who were examples of Duke's relaxed academic standards. Also, there has always been the story (could be an urban myth) for many years that when Tommy Amaker interviewed for the NU job after Bill Foster that he brought two high school transcripts and redacted the names and addresses and asked NU and I guess their admission staff if they would be admitted and was told no, they wouldn't. According to the story or urban myth, the names of those athletes were McDonald's All-Americans and eventually college all-Americans and NBA first-round draft picks, Bobby Hurley and Christian Laettner.