Duke - Your Three Worries

[dukiejay]

So conference play is off and running. On paper, we probably have our biggest game to date just two days away. At times, we've looked almost unbeatable, but every team (and every fan) has some worries.

So I ask....what's your three biggest 'worries' with this team? Worries that you feel could prevent them from reaching their goals.

1 - Outside shooting. This is the biggest for me. Because along the way, there's going to be games where we have to make shots. And besides Jack, I don't see a single percentage shooter on the roster right now. We have guys who are capable, but I'm not sure we have another capable of being a consistent threat....except maybe AOC? I don't know.

2 - Foul trouble. Like a lot of young teams, we pick up silly, early fouls. It seems as though one of, or both, of Cam and Zion always have two fouls midway through the first half. We absolutely need to keep Zion on the court as much as we can. He's the best player in the country right now.

3 - Cam Reddish. I should preface that this really isn't a worry or concern, but I do feel he needs to find himself at some point. Over the Christmas break I wasn't all that worried and figured he would find it over time. But now, and granted it's only been two games, he looks maybe more disjointed....almost as if he's trying too hard to find things.

Two things I love about the list above....1) defense isn't listed, and 2) defense is the least of my concerns.

 

[DukeRulesBasketball]

1. Cam Reddish
2. FT shooting
3. Injuries

 

[SwatX1]

1. Outside shooting. Sometimes I wonder if we are ever gonna hit anything outside of 12'

2. FT shooting. I won't say it's horrible, but I don't have the confidence that I would like to when they matter

3. Injury to key player. If everything stays the same, except we improve on 1 and 2 above, I think this is the only way we don't win it all.

 

[youngman42]

So conference play is off and running. On paper, we probably have our biggest game to date just two days away. At times, we've looked almost unbeatable, but every team (and every fan) has some worries.

So I ask....what's your three biggest 'worries' with this team? Worries that you feel could prevent them from reaching their goals.

1 - Outside shooting. This is the biggest for me. Because along the way, there's going to be games where we have to make shots. And besides Jack, I don't see a single percentage shooter on the roster right now. We have guys who are capable, but I'm not sure we have another capable of being a consistent threat....except maybe AOC? I don't know.

2 - Foul trouble. Like a lot of young teams, we pick up silly, early fouls. It seems as though one of, or both, of Cam and Zion always have two fouls midway through the first half. We absolutely need to keep Zion on the court as much as we can. He's the best player in the country right now.

3 - Cam Reddish. I should preface that this really isn't a worry or concern, but I do feel he needs to find himself at some point. Over the Christmas break I wasn't all that worried and figured he would find it over time. But now, and granted it's only been two games, he looks maybe more disjointed....almost as if he's trying too hard to find things.

Two things I love about the list above....1) defense isn't listed, and 2) defense is the least of my concerns.

Can't really disagree with this list. I'd put them at 1. Outside Shooting. 2. Cam Reddish. 3. Foul Trouble.

If Reddish improves his shooting, scoring, and overall play then I think foul trouble becomes a bit less of a factor. So, too, outside shooting. But, I think that is still a concern b/c Barrett and Zion are streaky shooters and inconsistent from 3 at this point.

I think the key for Reddish is to focus on his defense and that really means defensive intensity. That will keep him on the court b/c K loves defense. Then, if he can amp that up with his quickness and length, I think his confidence can grow as he'll get more layups, assists on fast break points and then I think he'll relax. Get some buckets from close and watch the ball go in.

The 2nd key for Reddish is for K to keep telling him to just shoot when he has an open 3. Shoot believing it will go in.

 

[dukephysics]

1. Injuries. By far the biggest concern for me. We saw the other night that Goldwire is a really likable guy that does what is asked of him - but he is a very large downgrade from Tre. The other 3 freshman provide so much on both ends of the floor. Our role players are excelling at their individual roles. If we stay healthy, we have to be odds-on favorites to win it all.
2. Outside shooting. After watching us a few times this year, I thought it would take a team with 1. a great shot blocker 2. good outside shooters and 3. a top notch coach to beat us when it mattered. I still believe that. A great shot blocker can negate (to a degree) what I think is our strength on offense - getting to the rim. The counter to that is outside shooting - penetrate and kick. If we cannot hits shots from the outside, and the other team has a great shot blocker, we could struggle (by this teams standards) scoring the ball.
3. Efficiency. Cam has to be better on offense. I think he will be. RJ can't have stretches like he did at the end of the Gonzaga game. This is what makes what Jack and Javin are doing so important - they are giving us extra chances and oftentimes, easy ones. Assuming we stay healthy, the only way this team gets beat in the big tournament is if we have a couple guys shoot like Grayson and Gary did against KU.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

1. Injuries. Our biggest advantage is our talent, an injury can take this biggest advantage away.

2. 3 point shooting. 2-25 from 3 is always a possibility for this team, and that's scary. Take RJ for example, he is EXCELLENT at the mid-range game, but can't hit from 3. Cam getting hot is the key to this teams 3 point shooting.

3. Zion getting in foul trouble in a tournament game. I can see a scenario where our aggressive D (mainly Zion gambling for steals) kills us with fouls and easy baskets for the opposition.

 

[Showenuff]

Biggest fear, injuries.

second, 3 pointers vs teams like UVA , who are going to MAKE us shoot them.

third , FT's. They are going to bite us at some point.

 

[Mac9192]

Foul trouble, Cam/Bolden/Alex, and rebounding. In that order. For the most part, we know what we get from the others. Cam/Bolden/Alex are question marks.

Foul trouble is self explanatory. That will hurt our defense.

Cam came in as a star, but has looked awful lately. We know anything positive we get out of Goldwire is a plus, but right now, the same is said for Cam.
I hope Bolden has turned the corner. We need his size when we see some of the more physical teams.
Alex. I expected a little more out of him this season. I look at him and I see someone that probably rides a skateboard around campus. He has that look like he doesn't care. Play with some fire young man!!!

Rebounding, because good defense will mean a lot less if we're giving multiple opportunities.

 

[OldasdirtDevil]

Shooting 1A & 1B (the order depending on the situation)...3 pointers and free throws we're not very good at them. Defense, transition points, and rebounding can help mask that, but sooner or later we've going to have games when we have to make shots. It has to improve at least a little.

2.Foul trouble. We can maybe do without Zion or RJ on the floor during stretches, but if both are in serious foul trouble and have to sit...the offense is really going to struggle (and the defense too). We do tend to make some silly fouls.

Naturally injuries change everything (and not much we can do about it), but that doesn't just apply to this team, it applies to every team.

OFC

 

[bullettoothtony]

Outside shooting and defense. Regarding the latter, I think it's mostly scars from the past, but I still don't fully trust it against really good teams. Fortunately conference competition will reveal whether or not it's legit.

 

[crazyduke3]

1. Free throw shooting. It just seems bad. I expected Tre to be great at shooting them but hasn't been.

2. Cam Reddish. His offense has rarely been good this year and when Zion and RJ aren't providing buckets we will really need him to step up. Instead he often looks out of sorts. His slump is not comparable to Brandon or Jayson in my book, it's worse. But he's young and the season still has plenty of time left, he's not close to a finished product.

3. 3 point shot. Outside of Jack White, who do you consistently trust? My wife and friend were laughing at me during the wake game because every time Zion shot a 3, I'd scream "WHAT ARE YOU DOING?" and he would make it! But they haven't seen the rest of his three's.

 

[BlueDevilWildcat]

Easy diagnosis - shooting. Worried about UVA next week.

I think our best bets to improve our 3P% and 3P# are fixing Cam and running more plays for Jack to get open 3s. More minutes for AOC would be an obvious choice but he looks to have really regressed this year, probably 2nd biggest disappointment next to Cam.

Here's from ESPN today, top 5 teams and their biggest weakness.

Duke is No. 1 in the polls and the favorite to win the national championship, but while the Blue Devils likely have the top two picks in June's NBA draft, they also have a couple of weaknesses. Multiple coaches who faced Duke this season pointed to a lack of consistent shooting as the biggest potential derailment. "Seems obvious, but another shooter is needed," one coach said. The Blue Devils rank in the bottom third nationally in 3-point percentage (32.2 percent), 3-point attempt rate (36.2 percent) and percentage of points off 3-pointers (25.9 percent). With Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett virtually unguardable going to the rim and Duke's elite transition ability, it hasn't been a huge issue yet, but it could be a factor as teams are scouted better and opponents look to take the Blue Devils out of their game.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

I'm sure K has his reasons, but....I don't know why we are redshirting Baker. Considering outside shooting is our biggest weakness, and AOC hasn't yet developed into the type of player we need, why not roll out Baker for shooting?
I understand he's too skinny at the moment and would be a liability on D, but he made it rain in Canada, his stroke is so pure. Plus he's not a 4 year player anyway...

 

[WI#1Dukie22]

#1 by a Mile- Staying grounded, not letting hype in your head. We are seeing just the beginning of the hype machine. Turn off the Media!!!!

#2 3 pt shooting

#3 Tre differing to much down the stretch in TOUGH spots. Tre is clutch as hell, give him chances to win games

 

[HuffyJB]

So conference play is off and running. On paper, we probably have our biggest game to date just two days away. At times, we've looked almost unbeatable, but every team (and every fan) has some worries.

So I ask....what's your three biggest 'worries' with this team? Worries that you feel could prevent them from reaching their goals.

1 - Outside shooting. This is the biggest for me. Because along the way, there's going to be games where we have to make shots. And besides Jack, I don't see a single percentage shooter on the roster right now. We have guys who are capable, but I'm not sure we have another capable of being a consistent threat....except maybe AOC? I don't know.

2 - Foul trouble. Like a lot of young teams, we pick up silly, early fouls. It seems as though one of, or both, of Cam and Zion always have two fouls midway through the first half. We absolutely need to keep Zion on the court as much as we can. He's the best player in the country right now.

3 - Cam Reddish. I should preface that this really isn't a worry or concern, but I do feel he needs to find himself at some point. Over the Christmas break I wasn't all that worried and figured he would find it over time. But now, and granted it's only been two games, he looks maybe more disjointed....almost as if he's trying too hard to find things.

Two things I love about the list above....1) defense isn't listed, and 2) defense is the least of my concerns.

Hit the nail on the head, and I think there is a good sized gap between #1 and #s 2 and 3 (and I think 1 and 3 are very closely related in this instance).

 

[Willcampbell]

1. UVA
2. Michican
3. Tennessee
(4.) Heels
OFC

 

[DiehardDukeFan4Life]

1) injuries-we’ve been lucky so far, the only “injury” that we’ve seen so far was when Tre got hurt in that one game but fortunately it was minor and only caused him to miss the rest of that game as a precaution

2) free throw shooting-there will likely be at least a couple games that come down to free throw shooting and it could cost us

3) foul trouble- we can’t afford foul trouble with any of our top 7-8 rotation, specifically our starters because there’s a huge drop off after our starters/top reserves

 

[Canadian Dukie]

1-Injuries most obvious choice
2-Cam/3 point shooting,i'm sure he will get it going
3-Complacency cant take anyone for granted,play hard every game

 

[duhondukie]

1. Cam: he needs to figure it out by Saturday or I do not think we walk away from FSU with a win. He looks lost to me on both ends of the floor. He does not look smooth on offense and is forcing everything. On the defensive end he struggles to guard without fouling
2. Turnovers: We are turning the ball over 13 times per game which is around 130th in the country.
3. Outside Shooting: Well everyone knows this is an issue. If we start slow against really good teams it will be difficult to win.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

2. Turnovers: We are turning the ball over 13 times per game which is around 130th in the country.

We play the 9th fastest tempo in Division 1 basketball, so the 13 TO per game is a little inflated considering how many possesions we get a game.

https://www.foxsports.com/college-b...&time=0&pos=0&team=1&qual=1&sortOrder=0&opp=0
Our turnover % is 43rd in the country (meaning we are the 43rd best team in the country at handling the ball), yeah that needs to improve a little.

However, we force our opponents into way more turnovers than we have. As long we keep forcing 18-20 a game, I think we will be fine at 13 a game.

 

[LouisiAaron]

Foul trouble is really the only thing that worries me with this team. Cam and Zion seem to always get 2 fouls. If we can keep Zion on the floor for 30+ minutes in a game it will be very hard to beat us. Our defense is so good that shooting isn’t that big of a deal. If we can keep a team around 70 points we should win the game because even with a bad shooting night we can still go for 80 points. At some point talent just takes over. We won’t see any defense in the country better than Texas Tech and we shot horribly against them. We still won because we have an elite defense. This team just wants it more than anyone else. When they get going no one can stop them. When we miss jumpers we just put our heads down and go to the goal. Tre is usually the one to take over going to the basket when he sees we’re struggling to make shots. Once he gets going everyone else follows suit. We will continue to get steals and score in transition. Not to mention we block a lot of shots. To beat us everything must go right for you early and you build a huge lead. If it’s within striking distance then you’re in trouble

 

[Dattier]

Unless we have key players with a history of injuries, Injuries should be disqualified from lists like this. I mean, aren't injuries every team's biggest concern?

 

[DukeDenver]

Never thought I’d see a time when we were headed into a highly ranked FSU road game where we were favored by a relatively wide margin. I’m actually not worried at all about this game. We are smarter, more athletic and better coached.

This is amazing.

 

[SoCal_Dukie3]

1) holding back - freshmen getting timid at the wrong time
2) injury - some random injury debilitating the team
3) K going Jav over Bolden - Bolden is coming out of his shell. He’s trying, offensively and defensively. Let the young man let loose and own the paint.

 

[skysdad]

1. Free throw shooting. Games are won or lost with free throw shooting . It's that simple.
2. Injuries. We just can't afford to have them.
3. The PTRF. I worry it win run out or we are going to be outbid. Inflation has hit. unc cheater u has deep pockets. A lot deeper than we do even with the 17 million dollars they spent ton get out of the academic cheating scandal. We may end up having to win the old fashion way and just beat the crap out of them no matter what.
OFC

 

[FearTheBeard_rivals208808]

So conference play is off and running. On paper, we probably have our biggest game to date just two days away. At times, we've looked almost unbeatable, but every team (and every fan) has some worries.

So I ask....what's your three biggest 'worries' with this team? Worries that you feel could prevent them from reaching their goals.

1 - Outside shooting. This is the biggest for me. Because along the way, there's going to be games where we have to make shots. And besides Jack, I don't see a single percentage shooter on the roster right now. We have guys who are capable, but I'm not sure we have another capable of being a consistent threat....except maybe AOC? I don't know.

2 - Foul trouble. Like a lot of young teams, we pick up silly, early fouls. It seems as though one of, or both, of Cam and Zion always have two fouls midway through the first half. We absolutely need to keep Zion on the court as much as we can. He's the best player in the country right now.

3 - Cam Reddish. I should preface that this really isn't a worry or concern, but I do feel he needs to find himself at some point. Over the Christmas break I wasn't all that worried and figured he would find it over time. But now, and granted it's only been two games, he looks maybe more disjointed....almost as if he's trying too hard to find things.

Two things I love about the list above....1) defense isn't listed, and 2) defense is the least of my concerns.

Pretty much these three things. Injuries are a concern but I think this team has the pieces to replace the minutes and still be a title contender. I think losing Tre would be the worst injury with Zion and RJ right behind him. But, I could envision a scenario, like I think Timo and Hokie discuss in their podcast, that Cam might be a good replacement as a point forward to replace Tre if necessary.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

1. Missing momentum-changing 3’s and front ends of 1 and 1s
2. Losing Tre for an extended period of time
3. Nassir Little stops being terrible

 

[FearTheBeard_rivals208808]

3. Nassir Little stops being terrible

That assumes Roy gives him the opportunity.

 

[1156jack]

In addition to Jack White, Duke has at least 3 other outstanding 3-point shooters all of whom are my 3 worries. One looks distracted, one looks acquiescent, one looks to pass.

Cam Reddish can obviously be an outstanding scorer and has a dynamite outside shot. He is in a funk, however, perhaps due to being distracted by figuring out to fit in with Barrett, an alpha male and Williamson, an alpha athlete. Or, it could simply mean that he needs to touch the ball more versus simply playing off ball. Some players only get into the flow if they handle the ball early and often.

Alex O'Connell is a deadly shooter. However, when he comes into the game he is rarely assertive. He looks like someone surprised to be in the game, never quite seeing himself as a valuable cog the team depends on to open things up. As an adjective, acquiescent means
"ready to accept something without protest, or to do what someone else wants." If Alex believed that he needed to shoot for the health of the team, that is, that he MUST SCORE, that the NC depended upon his providing a scoring threat, he would. The same "must score mentality" that RJ Barrett has is critical for both O'Connell and Reddish to develop to realize their potential and for the team to be dominant until the championship is won.

Tre Jones is an amazing point guard looking to lead and to dish. He is VERY capable of assaulting the other team with a 3-point barrage and may do so at some point in the season he perceives that it is up to him to do it for the team's survival.

 

[2 skerz 3_rivals208847]

Shooting! Both perimeter shooting and Free throw shooting.

 

[Nivram50]

My concerns:
1) Will I be off work in time to see the games at night and off on the weekends to see those games.
2) Will there be enough cold beer to last through the entire game.
3) What will I do if there's a storm that blocks my satellite signal during a game.

I'm not concerned about outside shoot unless the team continues to shoot from outside and miss. This team has enough drive and score ability and post and score ability that the outside shot doesn't concern me. Plus the defense is playing well enough that Duke trading 2s for an opponents 3s isn't a worry. The opponent is going to lose 15+ possessions to Duke a game.
I'm not concerned about Reddish. If the coaching staff says he deserves to be on the court, then I'm glad he's out there. I've seen too many Duke players that I thought should be on the court sitting the bench over the years. I trust the Duke coaching staff more than I trust myself evaluating a player over 40 mins two or three times a week.
Foul trouble isn't an overall concern for me either. I've seen the kids pick up some silly fouls, but they are kids and they are still adjusting to the level of play. Regardless of their talent level, they are still playing against much better talent than they had in the past. It will sort itself out. I much rather seen them play aggressive defense and trade a few fouls than to see them back off and give up baskets.

 

[Canadian Dukie]

My concerns:
1) Will I be off work in time to see the games at night and off on the weekends to see those games.
2) Will there be enough cold beer to last through the entire game.
3) What will I do if there's a storm that blocks my satellite signal during a game.

I'm not concerned about outside shoot unless the team continues to shoot from outside and miss. This team has enough drive and score ability and post and score ability that the outside shot doesn't concern me. Plus the defense is playing well enough that Duke trading 2s for an opponents 3s isn't a worry. The opponent is going to lose 15+ possessions to Duke a game.
I'm not concerned about Reddish. If the coaching staff says he deserves to be on the court, then I'm glad he's out there. I've seen too many Duke players that I thought should be on the court sitting the bench over the years. I trust the Duke coaching staff more than I trust myself evaluating a player over 40 mins two or three times a week.
Foul trouble isn't an overall concern for me either. I've seen the kids pick up some silly fouls, but they are kids and they are still adjusting to the level of play. Regardless of their talent level, they are still playing against much better talent than they had in the past. It will sort itself out. I much rather seen them play aggressive defense and trade a few fouls than to see them back off and give up baskets.

Best 3 yet Nivram!

 

[dukiejay]

In addition to Jack White, Duke has at least 3 other outstanding 3-point shooters all of whom are my 3 worries. One looks distracted, one looks acquiescent, one looks to pass.

Tre Jones is an amazing point guard looking to lead and to dish. He is VERY capable of assaulting the other team with a 3-point barrage and may do so at some point in the season he perceives that it is up to him to do it for the team's survival.

I don't see three 'outstanding' three-point shooters. I see three guys who can knock them down, but have never done so with any kind of consistency. That's partly why their percentages are low.

As for Tre, I wouldn't put it past him to make three of four in a game this season. He's capable of that. But right now, I'm not sure he's capable to bring it consistently. It's not a strength of his. His outside shooting has always really been the only so-called 'knock' on him for years.

 

[SwatX1]

My concerns:
1) Will I be off work in time to see the games at night and off on the weekends to see those games.
2) Will there be enough cold beer to last through the entire game.
3) What will I do if there's a storm that blocks my satellite signal during a game.

I REALLY wish I had thought of these!!

 

[nets on nets on nets]

I don't know if anyone else is picking up on this. But part of the reason our half-court offense looks terrible (particularly early in games) is we don't really run anything. Essentially RJ or Zion (occasionally Cam) catches the ball on the wing and they attack..that's it.
I'm not sure if this is by design by K, because there are some benefits to what were doing. Mainly, it limits turnovers and increases the tempo of the game. Last year, for example, I thought we ran some GREAT stuff, but jesus we turned the ball over a lot when trying for post-entry passes or high-low plays between the bigs.

Outside of the UK game, I can't name a single time where AOC got a wide open three (which we all know, he doesn't miss) and I think that is due to our vanilla offense. We need more movement.

 

[Voldukie]

1) Killer Clowns from Outer Space
2) The Crabs
3) Donald Trump

 

[dukephysics]

2) Will there be enough cold beer to last through the entire game.

If there is a chance of this, you are doing it wrong.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

What a luxury it is to have Jack.
1 injuries
2 halfcourt O
3 not Cam

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

Only thing about the foul trouble stuff is....what do you tell them? Be less aggressive? Lol that’s who we are. I worry about it, but imo ain’t much you can do about it.

 

[germantondevil]

Good thing is if Cam gets it rolling that will help out the outside shooting tremendously. Cam getting heated back up opens up everything for everyone else, inside and out.