I could see a scenario where Ryder takes a medical and they go with White as a true freshman at 184 if they can't find a portal guy. Some Oklahoma st people are saying Merrill could go 184 and White 197. Have heard Ruth wants to go 184
EARLY 2026-27 lineup projections/discussions
- Thread starter backdrft76-1
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No if you aren’t bumping MM (who would score same points at 174) and RS’ing Duke you are effectively replacing Duke at 165 with Henckel at 174. We would predict that Duke would score more than Henckel.
In a similar fashion if you RS Blaze you are replacing them with whoever you put at 141. Based upon options we have now he would clearly beat any of them.
If James isn’t in lineup it’s probably because 157/165/174 is occupied by Kasak/MM/Duke.
Blaze and at least one of Duke/James are in a maximum points lineup. Anything less is sub optimal, at least when viewed from that year only.
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IMO, OkSt pretty much maxed out at 184+197 (26 points). Maybe those scenarios add a few points, but hardly enough to close the gap.
I think you are grossly underestimating Henckel and I'm not sure James wouldn't benefit from a RS year, especially given his age.
You are way underestimating Henckel. He’s a title contender next year at 174. James might be as well but he could probably use a redshirt. We have all seen what a year in the room does
To get into the optimal lineup Henckel would need to beat at least two of MM, Duke, and James. This topic is not about diminishing an elite wrestler like Henckel but I’d be surprised if any of us would wager that if something substantial was on the line.
whether James and/or Duke would benefit from a RS is out of scope when discussing what the maximum points lineup is for current year. It only looks at that year.
We never discussed how highly I estimated Henckel, or didn’t. But if Duke would win 165 and Henckel was destined to finish third at 174 there’s a point difference. And I do think Henckel can have that type of performance but on average would expect Duke to outperform by around ten points.
These Oklahoma st people must think John is still coachingMerrill sucked down to 184:
Although Vega was cutting a bunch this year.You are throwing a lot of assumptions out there. Mesenbrink is the best in the world. Don't think Duke beats him. I would be more inclined to think Mesenbrink wins relatively easy then a duke win. And that takes nothing away from duke. If you want to maximize points, suck Rocco down and throw Connor in at 184.
I stand by I'd be shocked if MM doesn't go 165. Absolutely no reason for him to move up unless the cut is difficult for him. 74KG(162.8lbs) is his international weight is it not?
I certainly did not make the assumption that Duke could beat MM. Here are the assumptions that I made:
1. MM would win 174 and gain almost same exact team points as he would have had at 165
2. Duke at 165 would earn more team points than Henckel at 174. Most of us would expect Duke to win and collect many bonus points in process. Would we expect the same from Henckel? While some have suggested I underrate Henckel I do think he has potential for a high podium finish, just not as high as Duke nor as many bonus.
This is viewing the situation from a mathematical games perspective. Such as trying to maximize our three lines in Chinese Poker if any are familiar with that.
Do tell? Ever???
Well I can guarantee you spend more time sneaking into the room than I to make such a proclamation.
Ok, I'll bite. 'you spew excrement'
Short of DT pulling in 2-3 portal 'studs', I think our team without those three breaks the record again, and OSU is about 30 points back.
Ono 4th or better? Check
Kasak 3rd or Better? Check
Henkle AA? Likely
Desmond better than DNP? Check
Marisola better than DNP? Check
Rocky, one ridiculous post, ain't that bad, 2 desparaging posts about the quality of this team is a pattern.
There is the reason to possibly maximize the total expected NCAA tournament team points which is how they decide the team champion.
Now most likely we are going to crush OK State regardless so we don’t have to maximize and can just make strategic RSs. But as I mentioned before we should be very sure of that fact before instituting the plan to sideline three of our top athletes, Blaze, Duke, and James next year
His Olympic weight isn’t really a factor. No idea of MM’s walk around weight but he probably doesn’t need to bulk up to win 174 and in process take him too far away from 74KG
Obviously I have 100% confidence in Cael in managing this exactly correct. This is just a discussion on why the MM bump up has been mentioned as a possibility by various media
It’s Henckel
Not sure why you get emotional and personal about it. It’s just math and based upon the pure amount of studs in program.
Case in point, had they done a wrestle off this year one of Kasak or Duke would have lost and top two 157 wrestlers in nation were in same room
I do actually think we would be likely to break our own records again regardless of our lineup. There are a few weights that might not get us the same point total though.
We should not discount OK state though. I’m guessing DT will try and upgrade. And two years in a row they have both overachieved and brought in and wrestled athletes we had no idea were going to be there
But this is a fun exercise to kill some time before US Open lol
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I think the plan started last year when Kasak took his redshirt. Most guys at PSU redshirt at some point in their career. Levi is the only one coming to mind right now that did not. Duke and Kasak both had the talent this year to win it all. Duke taking a redshirt next year makes sense. Kasak and MM both graduate so if Duke can make 57 he slots right in, if not, he slots right in at 65. If James walks around in the low 60s and doesn't get much bigger, I would assume he takes the spot opposite Duke. Even though I think Milheim is grossly underrated, I think James redshirts for sure after watching tonight. That also gets Henckel, a u20 silver medalist into the lineup and Southern Scuffle winner into the lineup for at least a year, possibly more depending on how weights shake out. Then you have Rocco and Asher at 84, Connor and Barr at 97, Cole and Brown at Hwt. Down low it sounds like LL is locked in at 25, SVN at 49. Again, I think Blaze at least starts the year in RS. Ono and Desmond will man 33/41 in some combo, and Blaze only comes out of RS if needed, which I don't think will be the case. What an incredible problem to have, and we will all be partially right and partially wrong come next year, but it is fun to talk about and wonder.
I saw Oklahoma State board played some hypotheticals on their end (including giving Swiderski the win over SVN and giving Dee Top 3 finish points) that brought them within 10 to us.
If we want to do that, we can do:
1. The Duke - Robideau call was worth 11.5 points (Robideau got 11 for 1st after the win, he gets 4.5 assuming no bonus for 3rd, PJ let's say wins instead instead of the 6 he got for 3rd with a TF over cannon)
2. Oklahoma State got 11 from forfeits (Ryder - Allred, Doucet - Ferrari) from matches they lost previously.
Now the gap is 70+ again!
For the record, Oklahoma State wrestled a great tournament and I expect they will regularly, DT saw firsthand for 15 years basically how you do that. Saying "they're maxed out" or waiting for them to tank is similar to teams hoping PSU does the same. They will be a formidable opponent soon and it'll be back to the days where PSU needs to win Saturday might to win it all. But the gap is properly 50 right now and it'll close a bit next year but still be a comfortable PSU favorite. 2028, I expect a solid challenge though.
If we want to do that, we can do:
1. The Duke - Robideau call was worth 11.5 points (Robideau got 11 for 1st after the win, he gets 4.5 assuming no bonus for 3rd, PJ let's say wins instead instead of the 6 he got for 3rd with a TF over cannon)
2. Oklahoma State got 11 from forfeits (Ryder - Allred, Doucet - Ferrari) from matches they lost previously.
Now the gap is 70+ again!
For the record, Oklahoma State wrestled a great tournament and I expect they will regularly, DT saw firsthand for 15 years basically how you do that. Saying "they're maxed out" or waiting for them to tank is similar to teams hoping PSU does the same. They will be a formidable opponent soon and it'll be back to the days where PSU needs to win Saturday might to win it all. But the gap is properly 50 right now and it'll close a bit next year but still be a comfortable PSU favorite. 2028, I expect a solid challenge though.
Cael is the best at making adjustments. I think that will more than offset the loss of Haines.