EARLY 2026-27 lineup projections/discussions

[RockyChi]

Ahh transfer...lol jk. Good call. We're at two now.

I think he was banged up

Anyhow Max Dean over Jacob Warner was a huge match to preserve our current dual win streak. Next biggest was probably an injured Scooter over Bouzakis after Luke got pinned.

Dean and Davis sometimes get some grief here, but that will never come from RockyChi

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Who's in his path?

Josh Barr for the next 2 years ... do you even follow Penn State wrestling?

 

[Efejle]

Don't sleep on Sealey. See what I did there?

 

[PSU Mike]

I, like most here, am very much biased. That said, Cael and PSU have proven that when a guy is a finalist, he doesn't regress to not being a finalist the next year. I'm trying to think of the PSU guys who were finalists and then the next didn't make it back the next year. I'm sure there are a few but I'm also positive the % of PSU finalists that return to the finals is absurdly high. Taylor and Ok State may very well have that same level of consistency going for them but it's too early to give them the benefit of the doubt. That and Robideau even making the finals required some...luck. Merrill with his "style" will always be highly susceptible to being upset. I could see him back in the finals though. Unless a guy like Sinclair goes up to 197 or Rademacher makes a folkstyle jump like he did in freestyle last year.

Welsh would be the least likely repeat finalist but bet against him winning a vast majority of tight matches at your own peril.


* Anyone feel free to name the finalists that didn't return because now I want to know and don't have time to dig into it currently.

Levi Haines
Max Dean

Beau

With qualification: Nico (returned with lapse), Matt Brown (returned with lapse), Kerk (had a knee)

 

[El_Jefe]

If jax moves to 141, hes top 2 , if vega moves to 149, wouldnt he also most likely be a finalist ?

Forrest yes, Vega less clear.

The problem there is 149 has 4 guys (with Van Ness, Valencia, and Henson) for 2 spots.

 

[jamesmattmikesam]

Yes I think Duke will red shirt. I believe the Hepner match was just oddity. You are right it’s an assumption though. I believe he wins and might have a few less bonus matches. But that’s around 2-3 points.

But if Duke didn’t RS I think he’s getting 20-25 points at 165. Henckel can get a very high podium and could actually make the Final if he gets the right type of path. But ultimately on average I think he scores around 10 points less than Duke.

Hepner gave him a good match but I think MM could have still majored him.MM shut down after Hepner good hurt .

 

[El_Jefe]

* Anyone feel free to name the finalists that didn't return because now I want to know and don't have time to dig into it currently.

Levi Haines
Max Dean

Nico, Brown, Cassar, Bartlett, Kerk.

 

[BeerLion]

Cassar was a senior when he won the title. He did not have a chance to make it back to the finals

 

[nerfstate]

Cassar was a senior when he won the title. He did not have a chance to make it back to the finals

He was granted a 5th (injury) year and competed the season after his title before getting injured at Senior Nationals vs Dom Bradley.

 

[Misalorales]

Well, I found the time so :

Since 2009-2010 PSU has had 66 finalists.
Of those 66 finalists, 6 times have one not returned to the finals the next year.


Wrestler.........Year they failed to return.
-Megaludis in 2014
-Brown in 2014
-Dean in 2023
-Bartlett,Haines, Kerk in 2025

*Kerk was severely hurt
**Haines, Bartlett, Megaludis all took 3rd the year they failed to repeat a finals trip.
***Brown took 5th
**** Brown, Megaludis and Haines all won a title after failing to return previously.

If you take out the 13 finalists who were seniors it's 53 finalists and 6 failed to return the following year.

Taylor at Ok State may be able to replicate that. He may not. Until he has 7-10 years of data with multiple generations of recruits I'm giving Cael and PSU the benefit of the doubt when it comes to who's more likely to repeat performances.


As always, feel free to correct me. I'm as amateur as you can be with stats and definitely can be wrong.

 

[Joejitsu]

125... Luke --- beat McGowan... Luke should win it all again next year
133... Jax- beat Davino- Both of those guys will be in the running... but the addition of ONO could be a trump card... if not... Blaze is not far off
141.. Vega beat Mendez...I think Vega wins it again next year--- but blaze bumping up here could make it interesting
149 Valencia beat SVN... I think both guys are in it again but I think SVN wins it next year
157 Robideau beat Antrell. I think Pj beats them both next year but all three will be there... Unless Kasak goes 157 then I think hes the favorite
165 Mitch beat Caliendo... and Mitch runs the table again...unless he bumps up then PJ here and I think PJ runs that table
174. Levi beat Minto and levi is gone so Minto would be the guy to beat unless Mitch moves up... then Mitch runs the table here also!
184...Max beat Rocco...those two are back in the mix along with Angelo (i think) & Sinclair... Rocco has a little work to do bc that weight is stacked
197.. Josh beat Cody Merril... I think both are back in the finals and Josh runs the table again!
Hvy... Trumble beat Yonger. I think Cole gets better and has a legit chance of being top 3 or 4 if he can add some size and strength.

Legit could have 7 finalists next year
Ono is the wild card and
all 10 wrestlers could / should finish top 5

 

[The Pitchfork Rebel]

But he is beating Nico in the room!

He's hitting the weights HARD!

 

[zzs006]

Forrest yes, Vega less clear.

The problem there is 149 has 4 guys (with Van Ness, Valencia, and Henson) for 2 spots.

I think Henson matches up really well with Vega. He’s big, strong, and can just power through his attacks instead of getting stuck on the mat below the knee where Vega is deadly. SVN fits the bill also. He rarely attacks below the knee and usually finishes with high doubles or knee picks. SVN isnt a great scrambler though. He would need to finish quick and clean which is a tough ask against Vega

 

[Joejitsu]

I think Henson matches up really well with Vega. He’s big, strong, and can just power through his attacks instead of getting stuck on the mat below the knee where Vega is deadly. SVN fits the bill also. He rarely attacks below the knee and usually finishes with high doubles or knee picks. SVN isnt a great scrambler though. He would need to finish quick and clean which is a tough ask against Vega

Cael will have him ready!

 

[BeerLion]

He was granted a 5th (injury) year and competed the season after his title before getting injured at Senior Nationals vs Dom Bradley.

I stand corrected.

 

[Misalorales]

He was granted a 5th (injury) year and competed the season after his title before getting injured at Senior Nationals vs Dom Bradley.

Would've been cancelled from COVID regardless too.

 

[The Pitchfork Rebel]

The difficulty with projecting lineups..

A couple of years ago, a kid named Mitchell transferred from Cal Baptist, where he had two matches, won both by pin, but didn't crack the starting lineup.

Who saw him as a spectacular one loss, National Runner up, National Champ, National Champ, Hodge Winner and a year to go in their crosshairs?

Who say Levi jumping up two weight classes and barely missing a beat,

Who didn't think this year's starting lineup would be 197 Mirasola, 285 Mirasola, instead of Barr jumping up to 197 when Starocci took over 184?

Who saw Cassar going from 197 to 285 and beating out Nevills when he couldn't beat out an undersized Rasheed the year before?

Then there's injuries to guys like Suriano, Nagao, Howard, even Cassar that end their Penn State time, or guys like Nolf or Starocci who win the big prize on a bum wheel?

Maybe somebody fills out this off season and jumps up or maybe some switch is flipped and they suddenly become bonus point machines.

 

[Nitlion1986]

If jax moves to 141, hes top 2 , if vega moves to 149, wouldnt he also most likely be a finalist ?

Wouldnt their 157 lb’r also be considered a finalist ?

if we are assuming our 5 make it back to finals, u have to say their 4 freshmen do as well

If Vega moves to 149 then you have Shayne, Vega, Henson and Valencia. Not sure we can just assume any are finalists, but we can assume the semi-finals should be thrilling.

 

[PaWrestlingFan7]

I think Henson matches up really well with Vega. He’s big, strong, and can just power through his attacks instead of getting stuck on the mat below the knee where Vega is deadly. SVN fits the bill also. He rarely attacks below the knee and usually finishes with high doubles or knee picks. SVN isnt a great scrambler though. He would need to finish quick and clean which is a tough ask against Vega

Pretty sure I heard Henson will be 157 next year (or maybe I imagined that)?

 

[BriantheLion]

Pretty sure I heard Henson will be 157 next year (or maybe I imagined that)?

IDJ enough to make an opinion, but I recall hearing Henson 57, Bassett 49…

… but more recently hearing Bassett 41 so

 

[BriantheLion]

IDJ enough to make an opinion, but I recall hearing Henson 57, Bassett 49…

… but more recently hearing Bassett 41 soView attachment 1239190

IDK not IDJ!

 

[Random4598375]

Pretty sure I heard Henson will be 157 next year (or maybe I imagined that)?

I think that was more or less speculation rather than actual knowledge of anything. They have Ventresca, Campbell, Seidel, Bassett, Gaj, and Henson to fit into their lower weights next season. It's easier to do with 5 spots than 4.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

Hepner gave him a good match but I think MM could have still majored him.MM shut down after Hepner good hurt .

And MM didn't even try to shoot at the end to get a Major. I'm not sure if getting the Major just wasn't that important to him or if he was upset at Hepner and was calling him out to shoot.

 

[TangSoo]

I am a fan but fairly new to the message board. It is fascinating and confusing as hell to try and follow all the old stuff [3+ years ago] or the guys on the bench [Sealy Henckel, etc.] I have three questions.
I was under the impression that Ono was all world [yea I know he really was] but in watching his you tube videos he seems to be lightning quick with what I'll call an ankle pick and then rolling guys over which I guess is a point in freestyle. [freestyle has no up or down positions?] Question 1: for those who are familiar with what is going on in the room, how is his wrestling transferring to folkstyle? I presume he works out with Blaze, Desmond etc. How does he compare? Question 2: I thought Mendez was unstoppable until Vega beat him. That did not look like a fluke aka. PJ's loss. So if Vega goes to 149 is he an immediate favorite over SVN? Finally, why is there so little love for Bo Basset? Jax looked really good to me and then someone posted a video of Basett bixxtch slapping Jax in HS. Also what is the backstory for why he isn't at PSU. It looks like he committed to Iowa and then transferred to Va Tech.

I don't claim to have any clue what's going on in the room. But, I didn't see anybody answer you so, I'll offer my opinions. 1) Ono is apparently very good from bottom. Makes sense. Lightning quick and powerful. Does he really need to top wrestle? I'd guess he fares well against Blaze and Desmond. I think if he's healthy, he'll be a monster at 133. I personally don't think Davino has enough for him, but Jax may. Just my opinion
2) I love SVN and his style, but Vega is airtight defensively and SVN has lapses. I'd favor Vega (I'm not a Bassett lover, but I think he could be a problem for Shayne as well, assuming he goes 149). I love PJ but I wouldn't call his loss a fluke. The OSU kid slowed him down and took him to OT (like Taylor slowed him down the first time they met). Yeah, he got robbed, but that's different from a fluke. PJ was gassed in OT. Maybe the cut got to him 3) I think the Bassett's were working schools for the highest offer. When he left Iowa, Cael wasn't playing that game again (my opinion, and probably the opinion of others). Jax and Bassett have probably wrestled together hundreds of hours. Room familiarity. It might be folly to predict who wins that at 141. But, I'll take a shot. Jax has jumped levels, obviously. I think Jax would win at 141. Maybe we see more over the summer and that opinion changes.