Read a recent article in the Courier Journal stating that we are 18 point under dogs to the bird brains down the road. I believe we win the game, more less loss by 18 points. What are folks early thoughts and the spread?
Early lines are pathetic
- Thread starter RUPPsRevenge1
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It's way too early for predictions like this. So many things can (and will) happen before the game is played. With that said, I'd rather be favored by 18 than the 18 point underdog we are at this time.
Even a ville fan should jump on those odds. Way too much up side not to bet on the Cats. First reason is that there is a lot of football between now and that game. Better chance that we close the gap than there is that UofL is better than predicted or that UK is worse than predicted. The bet hedger is the fact that it is a rivalry game. Even if UofL proves to be that much better than UK, there is a huge chance that the game is closer than it should be.
Another reminder that there are way to many sports media outlets. I don't know where this came from, but I would be willing to bet that this site couldn't even name the 44 starters on both teams. The coaches don't even know that yet. The game is 5 months away. I understand, they can base certain things on returning players, I just wonder if they would actually take a bet. Oh, by the way CATS basketball, over birds by 40. lol
I believe that the difference between UK and UofL right now is Lamar Jackson.
He's a dynamic game changer and I believe that he'll be the single hardest player to deal with that we see all year.
THAT'S what UK has lacked since Randall Cobb...
If Jackson get's injured, the game is a tossup.
He's a dynamic game changer and I believe that he'll be the single hardest player to deal with that we see all year.
THAT'S what UK has lacked since Randall Cobb...
If Jackson get's injured, the game is a tossup.
If we haven't learned how to tackle the QB option UL will win by more than 18.
UL has a good team this season and we are yet unknown and unproven in many arears.
After blowing a 21 pt lead last season at home, I just don't see a amazing turn around. UK has never demonstrated a ability to improve greatly from one season to the next.
I truly hope I am wrong but until proven otherwise another 4/5 win season with a embarrassing loss to UL.
UL has a good team this season and we are yet unknown and unproven in many arears.
After blowing a 21 pt lead last season at home, I just don't see a amazing turn around. UK has never demonstrated a ability to improve greatly from one season to the next.
I truly hope I am wrong but until proven otherwise another 4/5 win season with a embarrassing loss to UL.
It pains me to agree. Even up, I'd take UL every chance I got but not giving up eighteen. 4 or five more realistic than 6 or 7 for betting purposes.
Once again we have too many "ifs" in our roster. Will it never end?
It's a huge spread, too high IMO.
But with that said, I can't pick stoops to beat Petrino until he actually does it. Last year was pathetic, as our team clearly wasn't ready to defend Jackson after we got a 21-0 lead. If Lamar Jackson is hurt, then all bets are off. If he isn't, then UK should be an underdog.
But with that said, I can't pick stoops to beat Petrino until he actually does it. Last year was pathetic, as our team clearly wasn't ready to defend Jackson after we got a 21-0 lead. If Lamar Jackson is hurt, then all bets are off. If he isn't, then UK should be an underdog.
I have no idea where the OP got that 18 point 'dawg number. The only bettable spread I have seen was South Point's UK +16.5 early season teaser. That one had a $1000 limit on it and I have not seen if it has moved since the offering. In another post I noted that Phil Steel's preseason Plus/Minus numbers showed the Cards about a 12 point fav.
Peace
Peace
Until the UK D shows me that they can stop a mobile QB I won't touch any line. UL will come in to the UK game with anywhere from 0-2 losses. At Houston and at Clemson are the possible losses I see for them. They should be able to beat Fla St. at home.
If they beat Florida St, I'll be summarily impressed. They aren't beating Florida state, home or no.
Yep, I'd be inclined to say the same thing. Two pretty even teams without Jackson, so Louisville gets a slight edge at home. If Jackson is healthy, Louisville might be in a "name the score" type situation. And when Bobby Petrino has those, he generally selects a high number.
What on Earth would make you believe at this point that we will win?
I hope you are right but UL plays two crappy teams to start the season with Charlotte and Syracuse. UL has a way of putting their eggs in one basket if they have one tough team out of 3 or 4. They will win against the first two teams while looking iffy and then they get Fla st. at home with 8 days to prepare...........
That being said, Watch UL's game at Marshall. They go there in between Fla. St. and Clemson.
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I don't recall the source, but this was in Bozich's Monday Muse column yesterday. I don't like giving him clicks, but take a look if u like.
Agreed. UL will likely have a good record this year, but I doubt they beat many (any?) good teams, per usual. This has been the case for a long time.
If the spread is 18 in louisville's favor then I'm about to hop all over that. Not saying we'll win. And I'm certainly not the type to bet anything substantial on my favorite sports teams. But I'm 90% sure we don't lose by 18. Gotta get it while the gettin is good and that just screams gauranteed dolla billz to me.
Well, there it is. UK +18 is the current line from South Point Casino, the same guys that opened the game at UK +16.5 some weeks ago. Not sure if early money moved it or not, we will have to wait until some other places post their lines, Regardless, seems high to me. Cards are listed as 2.5 point 'dawgs to FSU. No other UK spreads out there for "comparison".
Peace
Although I have always loved this rivalry game, my off-season interest in it has waned significantly since the game was moved to the end of the season. I hope that changes. But until both teams are very good, it may not.
A game that used to garner inflated premium ticket prices, a unique & high-exposure Sunday TV slot, and months of pre-game conversation amongst its fanbases, has been played the last two years in front of less-than-capacity crowds, in relatively-hidden TV spots, and in front of fanbases where a portion were already, at least to some extent, thinking about the next sport season. IMO, this game has lost some of its luster, and that's too bad.
Regarding this year's game, 18 points sounds like an awful lot of points But with the defensive question marks UK appears to have, and the large number of returnees Petrino has on the offensive side of the ball, I'm not sure I'd touch this one either way right now. If I were forced to pick a side today, I'd take the points. But I think UofL will be better this year, and I'm a little concerned with UK's situation because I thought they would have been noticeably better last year, but just weren't, and now breaking in a new QB & OC....again. The fact the Cats lost the last 2 games despite Louisville's absolute nightmare 1st quarters would create much cause for concern, and it probably what is fueling much anticipated lack of confidence in them from the line makers.
First of all, I pretty much agree with ajg's above post...18 looks like too much. I too thought there was a certain excitement and anticipation of the first game scenario that is just not there anymore. And, yes, I do think UK's recent football history is coloring the early analyses and expectations for this team.
But you can walk into the South Point Casino and bet a maximum of $1,000 on that line right now. I have said before that I expect UK to win at least 6 this season although the win over/under line is 5. It is usually not smart to tie up your money on an end of season outcome but if I were betting I think I would more inclined to play the 6 win season rather than the 18 point spread.
Peace
LOL - if UK is good enough to win 6, they will be good enough to beat an 18 pt spread.
UL beat two teams by 18+ last season - Samford and Syracuse.
Add in the fact that we are talking about the LAST game of a season where ULs most important weapon is its QBs legs...yeah, 18 is ridiculous.
UL beat two teams by 18+ last season - Samford and Syracuse.
Add in the fact that we are talking about the LAST game of a season where ULs most important weapon is its QBs legs...yeah, 18 is ridiculous.
Not surprising UL is picked in a rout. It's what UK will be facing until they prove they'll show up, not quit in the 2d half and play 4 quarters of football.
Its been 10 years since UL won by more than 18 vs UK. Been 8 years since UK won by more than that spread...and there have been some rough teams on both sides in thet time frame.
18 could happen, but it is a silly spread considering all factors.
18 could happen, but it is a silly spread considering all factors.
Mine are that it's way too early, the season is still over two months off, to put much in a spread for a game late in the season. Right now I'm more worried about Southern Miss. I've seen a few comments here suggesting some think that could be a tough game.
I get it though for those living in Kentucky it's a huge game. It's a huge game to me! I to am inclined to think we could win it, but I want to see both teams play a few games first.
The point spread exists solely to generate betting action. It's at 18 b/c that's what it takes to coax bets from both sides. But it is usually indicative of the perceived strength of the teams in a particular game. So .......
Reasons? UofL returns an outstanding defense and UK does not (at least based on what was showed last year and in the Spring game). UofL returns an outstanding QB and receivers and UK has a relatively new QB and unproven receivers. UK definitely gets the RB nod if Boom can hold up. OL's for both teams have promise but limited results. So as of RIGHT NOW, UofL looks better on paper to the bookies than UK. But those things change during the season, some players develop and step up, others falter or get injured, some Freshman and redshirts (currently unknowns) knock it out of the park when they get their shot, coaches can succeed or screw up, locker room issues can arise, and the ball just bounces funny sometimes, etc. So who really knows?
Short version: I wouldn't touch that point spread for either team with any confidence. Still too many unknowns.
Reasons? UofL returns an outstanding defense and UK does not (at least based on what was showed last year and in the Spring game). UofL returns an outstanding QB and receivers and UK has a relatively new QB and unproven receivers. UK definitely gets the RB nod if Boom can hold up. OL's for both teams have promise but limited results. So as of RIGHT NOW, UofL looks better on paper to the bookies than UK. But those things change during the season, some players develop and step up, others falter or get injured, some Freshman and redshirts (currently unknowns) knock it out of the park when they get their shot, coaches can succeed or screw up, locker room issues can arise, and the ball just bounces funny sometimes, etc. So who really knows?
Short version: I wouldn't touch that point spread for either team with any confidence. Still too many unknowns.
I like playing the game at the end of the season. The schedule always seemed to be disadvantageous for UK. There were years when UofL had a warm-up cup cake game first then we played our first game against them. Most years it was the first game for both, but UofL followed up with a easy opponent the next week or two but we had SEC opponents. Not making excuses but, I think playing at the end of the season is more of an equal situation, and puts more on the line.
A few key injuries or suspensions either way could drastically move this line, but UK being 3-4 scores worse seems like a huge stretch to me. That's a lot of points to cover for any team and I guarantee Stoops will have a much better game plan in store for Jacksons and company this year.
A few key injuries or suspensions either way could drastically move this line, but UK being 3-4 scores worse seems like a huge stretch to me. That's a lot of points to cover for any team and I guarantee Stoops will have a much better game plan in store for Jacksons and company this year.
That is... until Jackson gets hurt or subbed for and UofL's back up comes in and we can't stop him.
Just kidding, but not really kidding.
Points spreads for games that are this far out are only for the most degenerate of gamblers. lol. Having said that these places aren't dumb nor are they in the business of losing money. 18 points is what is currently needed in order to get money coming in from both sides. Now...that will likely change come November one way or the other. However I did find this stat.
Worst record against-the-spread, last 5 years
Kentucky 18-37
VT 21-40
Illinois 20-35
A&M 22-36
Cal, KU 22-34
Oregon St 23-35
Worst record against-the-spread, last 5 years
Kentucky 18-37
VT 21-40
Illinois 20-35
A&M 22-36
Cal, KU 22-34
Oregon St 23-35
What happened to you? I always enjoyed your posts before, that were so ignorant they were funny. I really believed you were a troll trying to make UL fans look bad for a long time. Your facts are interesting but not nearly as entertaining.
I think you should come clean, you really are his dad posting after you took away his computer when you found out the garbage he was posting and you are trying to make up for some of the embarrassing posts he came up with.
I don't blame you a bit, but I do miss the entertainment.
Trust me, I missed your posts as well...they were always.....an interesting take if nothing else.
Nothing really interesting to talk about right now so no point in posting. It's all sort of "gloom and doom" around UK and being that it's Summer not a lot of information or taking points coming out of Lexington or Louisville.
Nothing really interesting to talk about right now so no point in posting. It's all sort of "gloom and doom" around UK and being that it's Summer not a lot of information or taking points coming out of Lexington or Louisville.