Espn has Kentucky underdog to Illinois

[anon1751545683]

Did y’all know we were up 25 and got to empty the bench?

Did you know we hit 10 threes?

Did you know we were 23/10 on assist turnovers?

Did you know we had 6 steals and 6 blocks?

I swear, some of the people around here just stay miserable. We didn’t play our best, but we were fine.

Going to be a tough game to win Sunday, but it was always going to be tough, whether we played Texas, or Xavier, or Illinois.

Got 48 hours to figure out how to guard them, but they’ve got to figure us out too. Let’s toss the ball up and see what happens.

There’s the thing. They only have 48 hours to figure us out.

That’s a tall task. SEC teams had all season and we still averaged 85 points.

We didn’t look good last night but I believe the whole team was feeling the pressure. That’s speculation but it seemed like a relief to everyone to get that out of the way.

If we play like we did last night and they play like they did last night then it’s going to be bad for us.

But what if neither of those things happen?

 

[OmahaCats]

They have hated us for years

Nothing to do with that

 

[UKortho]

Kenpom has us losing by 1 point. Game could go either way.

 

[BigBlueFanGA]

Eye test after both games tells me Illinois should be favored by 10.

LET’S GO UNDERDOG!

Illinois played way over their heads offensively. As has been pointed out, they tend to play 1 game "on" and then the next one "down". They are ridiculously inconsistent. Good teams don't do that.

 

[TortElvisII]

Nothing to do with that

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

The team that earned a 3 seed isn’t the team that’s playing in the tournament. We are far closer to a 6 seed than a 3 seed, especially given how Butler doesn’t look even remotely close to 100%. And if you watched the two teams play last night and have even the slightest clue about what you’re watching, you shouldn’t be surprised we’re the dog. My guess is that 1.5 will move pretty close to 3.5 by the time we tip. We are going to have to play well and Illinois is gonna hafta help a bit (see the @ Tennessee game where the Bols shot it like hot garbage) for us to come out on top.

 

[NoDef]

They have two projected first round picks. They have two players more talented than anyone we have. It will be a tough one.

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

Illinois played way over their heads offensively. As has been pointed out, they tend to play 1 game "on" and then the next one "down". They are ridiculously inconsistent. Good teams don't do that.

No they didn’t. They are wildly inconsistent, yes. But they are plenty capable on offense. They don’t defend anyone, and that will be the big elixir if we are to win. If these two teams played 10 times, nobody would win more than 6. I’m just not sure Butker is healthy enough to make a difference on offense. And that sucks.

 

[Aike]

The team that earned a 3 seed isn’t the team that’s playing in the tournament. We are far closer to a 6 seed than a 3 seed, especially given how Butler doesn’t look even remotely close to 100%. And if you watched the two teams play last night and have even the slightest clue about what you’re watching, you shouldn’t be surprised we’re the dog. My guess is that 1.5 will move pretty close to 3.5 by the time we tip. We are going to have to play well and Illinois is gonna hafta help a bit (see the @ Tennessee game where the Bols shot it like hot garbage) for us to come out on top.

We’ve actually been as good or better over the last month or so than we have across the whole season.

If fully healthy we would have been closer to a 1 seed. Probably a high 2.

Butler is a concern. Not going to sugar coat that. But again, we’ve been dealing with the Butler situation for weeks and generally overcome it.

Only real problem over the last month or so has been that we’ve run into some buzzsaws (Bama and Auburn). Illinois can be that on a hot night, but they haven’t been that consistently.

 

[Kybluedude]

Should we show up?

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

We’ve actually been as good or better over the last month or so than we have across the whole season.

If fully healthy we would have been closer to a 1 seed. Probably a high 2.

Butler is a concern. Not going to sugar coat that. But again, we’ve been dealing with the Butler situation for weeks and generally overcome it.

Only real problem over the last month or so has been that we’ve run into some buzzsaws (Bama and Auburn). Illinois can be that on a hot night, but they haven’t been that consistently.

We are 5-3 over the last month. 6-3 if you count the Vandy game. The wins were OU twice, Mizzou, LSU, and Troy. Not competitive in three losses to Bama twice and Auburn. Illinois is better than any of the teams we beat. They’re not as good as Bama or Auburn. Moral of the story? We shouldn’t be surprised or butthurt about being a 1.5 point dog. It’s probably accurate. Vegas bettors see Butlers condition and I have zero doubt that’s why the money is where it is.

 

[Emarc]

Well it is ahome game for Illinois

 

[chasingwildcat]

Illinois is much like Tennessee. We match up fairly well with them. If Illinois is hitting their threes we are done. If they are missing we most likely win assuming we are shooting well. Chandler is going to have to bring the defense and so will Williams. It is doable.

Their three freshemen are types of players we can not guard in this season...

 

[9timeChampion]

lol bunch of negative asses on here. they got blown out by Maryland, which is worse than Alabama or Auburn. Their freshmen aren't like the ones giving us fits. The ones giving us fits have mainly been guards. I guess the best player is a combo but Texas and Oklahoma freshmen was a pg. Auburn had that pg/sg and so did bama who were decent freshmen. They usually aren't good at 3s, still gotta guard them. My concern is their number one in rebounding gotta box out and play with heart. Have to turn them over some too.

 

[ScottGreene22]

The line in Vegas last night stated at KY -1.5 but quickly moved to KY +1.5

 

[chasingwildcat]

lol bunch of negative asses on here. they got blown out by Maryland, which is worse than Alabama or Auburn. Their freshmen aren't like the ones giving us fits. The ones giving us fits have mainly been guards. I guess the best player is a combo but Texas and Oklahoma freshmen was a pg. Auburn had that pg/sg and so did bama who were decent freshmen. They usually aren't good at 3s, still gotta guard them. My concern is their number one in rebounding gotta box out and play with heart. Have to turn them over some too.

Illi has a top 5 pick candidate 6-6 point guard... We have almost no one can match him

Also, Riley, 6-8 sf, matchup nightmare for us

Big Z is type of stretching five Amari usually struggles with...

Also, almost every elite freshmen put great numbers on us regardless of position...

I just do not feel good about this game

 

[Aike]

We are 5-3 over the last month. 6-3 if you count the Vandy game. The wins were OU twice, Mizzou, LSU, and Troy. Not competitive in three losses to Bama twice and Auburn. Illinois is better than any of the teams we beat. They’re not as good as Bama or Auburn. Moral of the story? We shouldn’t be surprised or butthurt about being a 1.5 point dog. It’s probably accurate. Vegas bettors see Butlers condition and I have zero doubt that’s why the money is where it is.

I think we said the same thing, except that at Missouri was a tougher game than Illinois on a neutral court.

Mathematically, we have been pretty good over that stretch you just described.

 

[chasingwildcat]

I think we said the same thing, except that at Missouri was a tougher game than Illinois on a neutral court.

Mathematically, we have been pretty good over that stretch you just described.

their three freshemen are types of players we do not have solution with...

 

[Aike]

their three freshemen are types of players we do not have solution with...

They have to figure out how to guard our offense in 48 hours. They won’t.

Oweh, Brea, and Chandler are going to have to guard their tails off, but Illinois will score.

We need to go at Ivisic and put him on the bench. Maybe we will, maybe we won’t.

More than likely, whichever team is hottest from three will win by double digits.

 

[Festivus Miracle]

It doesn't bring me pleasure to say it, but I think we are in gravy territory. We are quite the MASH unit. I think everything is gravy from here on in.

 

[true-blue1]

We are the only higher seed that is underdog.

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If I was Pope I would use this as motivation.

I can see that because we played horrible last night. I hope Pope can get them motivated because last night we were just going in the motion.

 

[cats#1again]

Eye test after both games tells me Illinois should be favored by 10.

LET’S GO UNDERDOG!

We didn't look that bad. We made the same careless passes we've made all year though. That's what scares me

 

[Eagles_Ball_69]

I think we said the same thing, except that at Missouri was a tougher game than Illinois on a neutral court.

Mathematically, we have been pretty good over that stretch you just described.

Yeah, I can get behind that. My concern is simply Illinois is better than the teams we’ve beaten lately. And outside of Mizzou (and they were in the middle of an epic late season collapse), they’re significantly better. I think it all hinges on how effective Butler can be, OR if we shoot the lights out of it.

 

[HeismaNole_rivals116019]

They have hated us for years

Because of the home cooking officiating in 1984?

 

[Bkocats]

Eye test after both games tells me Illinois should be favored by 10.

LET’S GO UNDERDOG!

 

[Aike]

We didn't look that bad. We made the same careless passes we've made all year though. That's what scares me

We did, but Troy is also very pesky. 7th in the country in steaks rate.

Thankfully we balanced their steals with 23 assists on 28 makes.

 

[Aike]

Yeah, I can get behind that. My concern is simply Illinois is better than the teams we’ve beaten lately. And outside of Mizzou (and they were in the middle of an epic late season collapse), they’re significantly better. I think it all hinges on how effective Butler can be, OR if we shoot the lights out of it.

Fair enough. I would call them a lesser version of Bama, and we actually didn’t play that badly at Bama, despite the final spread.

The tricky part is that they have been so inconsistent. Prime Illinois bombing threes is a Final Four team. But have they actually turned a corner, or is the team that lost by 40+ to Duke and 20+ to Maryland still in there somewhere?

 

[chasingwildcat]

Fair enough. I would call them a lesser version of Bama, and we actually didn’t play that badly at Bama, despite the final spread.

The tricky part is that they have been so inconsistent. Prime Illinois bombing threes is a Final Four team. But have they actually turned a corner, or is the team that lost by 40+ to Duke and 20+ to Maryland still in there somewhere?

They actually play good recently, only bad game they play is 20+ loss to Maryland, but they win most of recent games... Generally, they are on fire now.

 

[OliverSimmonsTwinBrother]

For me it was Jason Lathrem and Oliver Simmons.

 

[CrimsonCats_rivals]

Most of the models have this as essentially a toss up (Kenpom has Illinois ranked 16th and us 17th, Torvik has us 18th and them 19th) despite the seeding, so it’s not outrageous for them to be slight betting favorites with all our health uncertainties. It is still a game we can win if we play well and/or the bad version of Illlinois that’s been blown out several times this year shows up though. I’m certainly not throwing in the towel ahead of time.

 

[4Frusciante#]

If Kentucky has a game where they just can't shoot they'll lose since Illinois will put up points. However, they are also the weakest defensive team UK has faced for a while; I say Kentucky by double digits.

 

[TortElvisII]

Because of the home cooking officiating in 1984?

I worked with an Illinois fan that still talked about that 20 years ago.

 

[CatOfDaVille]

If Kentucky has a game where they just can't shoot they'll lose since Illinois will put up points. However, they are also the weakest defensive team UK has faced for a while; I say Kentucky by double digits.

That's the way I see it. They have a good offense...ours is better. They have a subpar defense...over the last six weeks our defense has actually been pretty good.

All signs point to a UK win unless they are very hot from deep and we are cold.

 

[darkshadesofblue]

Should we show up?

According to John Goodman, we’re going to lose by double figures

 

[HenryMuto]

Illinois 16th and Kentucky 17th kenpom

I guessed before even looking today Illinois would be favored by 1.5

It was not a good 6 seed to draw for our bracket one of the highest ceiling teams that had sickness and injuries that knocked their seed down. Not the kind of team you want to play as a 3 seed.

Kentucky off eff is down to 10 it was once as high as 2 this year.

 

[HeismaNole_rivals116019]

I worked with an Illinois fan that still talked about that 20 years ago.

Oh yeah, I believe you. I had an experience similar to that in 2018 with a guy I worked with from Chicago. It reminds me of that Jon Hamm meme.

 

[ManitouDan]

Illi has a top 5 pick candidate 6-6 point guard... We have almost no one can match him

Also, Riley, 6-8 sf, matchup nightmare for us

Big Z is type of stretching five Amari usually struggles with...

Also, almost every elite freshmen put great numbers on us regardless of position...

I just do not feel good about this game

Amari just stares down bigs that can shoot the three .. like “ I dare ya “ lol .. I think Illin has been more impressive than us the past month , and in the first round for sure . Therefore they are a solid favorite. Slight but solid

 

[pauled#1]

I agree with this … they are only shooting 31.4% on the year from three.

So that means they will shoot at least 50% against Kentucky!

 

[THE_HOOK]

We are the only higher seed that is underdog.

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If I was Pope I would use this as motivation.

Illinois is physical as hell. If the cats don't match their physicality they may get run out of the arena. We've seen a few games this year when the cats backed down from a fight. They better be ready.

 

[NoahColeLiam2024!]

I think I can sum up this thread by saying IL has a really high ceiling and a pretty low floor and they tend to live in those two areas most of the time.

I can’t really compare our game with Troy with theirs with X. Troy mucks it up, lots of ball pressure, wants to impose their tempo on you. Tries to create bad passes with active hands.

IL/X was more of a free flowing game, not nearly as much defense. Tons of threes were shots.

Can we win, yes. Can we lose, yep. I said this in another thread. It’s about 3 point shooting percentage and owning the boards.