ESPN Win Probability

[Phillipe]

Don’t be thick... there are valid reasons even if you don’t agree with them.

Riley brought professionalism back to Nebraska. When he was hired many experts said he would improve recruiting. He was known as a developer of talent.

Hindsight is awesome and can help guys like you say it was a terrible hire. But the fact of the matter is, he was hired for valid reasons, even if they haven’t panned out.

Don’t be thick... there are valid reasons even if you don’t agree with them.

Riley brought professionalism back to Nebraska. When he was hired many experts said he would improve recruiting. He was known as a developer of talent.

Hindsight is awesome and can help guys like you say it was a terrible hire. But the fact of the matter is, he was hired for valid reasons, even if they haven’t panned out.

No, being a "professional" is not a valid reason. I was so excited when we fired a coach with nine wins thinking nine wins is not enough and the administration has a chance to bring in somebody better.

And instead we hired an aging mediocre coach that had gone 2-13 in his last 15 games. It's inexcusable to bring in the OSU staff to a program that is not satisfied with a coach that did more than Riley has ever done in college football.

Many people criticized it then. There is no hindsight needed. It was a bad decision that had predictable results.

It blows my mind that people are still buying the PR that has been pumped our way since the day the last guy was fired.

 

[Phillipe]

I personally have seen no credible evidence of Riley being on the hot seat at OSU. I've seen some third hand questionable posts on here and that's it. He MIGHT have been and maybe should have been but I don't know that for a fact. Third hand rumors from a second rate reporter or fan doesn't count. I don't doubt that he was the only name on the list and that is an AD's choice. I will note that his boss interviewed Riley and agreed to the hire. Of course that is the same boss that agreed to hiring SP, firing Frank, hiring Callahan, fired SP, agreed to hiring Bo, wanted Bo gone, hired SE to fire Bo......You also have to admit although the odds are long, Riley still could rally the troops and save his job whether one likes it or not.

If you don't take the word from a beat reporter that closely followed and reported OSU football, who exactly are you waiting to hear from? DO you really think Mike Riley is going to come out and say he was in deep water at his last job?

 

[HuskerO58]

If you don't take the word from a beat reporter that closely followed and reported OSU football, who exactly are you waiting to hear from? DO you really think Mike Riley is going to come out and say he was in deep water at his last job?

I missed that article or words by said beat writer. You still have that write up?

 

[Phillipe]

I missed that article or words by said beat writer. You still have that write up?

No, I don't. I suppose I could google it. But there was an article at the time about a difficult meeting between Riley and his AD right before he hired him. One of the Oregon papers. It has been cited often since in articles about Riley. Of course not by Nebraska media, but we can guess why that is

 

[HuskerO58]

No, I don't. I suppose I could google it. But there was an article at the time about a difficult meeting between Riley and his AD right before he hired him. One of the Oregon papers. It has been cited often since in articles about Riley. Of course not by Nebraska media, but we can guess why that is

Please link if you don't mind. I don't even know the name of the beat writer you're mentioning. TIA.

 

[Phillipe]

Please link if you don't mind. I don't even know the name of the beat writer you're mentioning. TIA.

I don't either. I'm sorry, I have no idea how to find it. I don't blame you if you think i'm full of BS. I have no doubt others have read it too because I have seen it mentioned. But, I don't have it.

 

[jehresm]

Please link if you don't mind. I don't even know the name of the beat writer you're mentioning. TIA.

It took me like 10 seconds to Google these

http://portlandtribune.com/pt/12-sp...g-decision-to-leave-oregon-state-bittersweet-

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/12/how_mike_rileys_contract_with.html

 

[Phillipe]

It took me like 10 seconds to Google these

http://portlandtribune.com/pt/12-sp...g-decision-to-leave-oregon-state-bittersweet-

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/12/how_mike_rileys_contract_with.html

merci

 

[HuskerO58]

I don't either. I'm sorry, I have no idea how to find it. I don't blame you if you think i'm full of BS. I have no doubt others have read it too because I have seen it mentioned. But, I don't have it.

I didn't think you were full of it. I was genuinely curious to read it.

 

[HuskerO58]

It took me like 10 seconds to Google these

http://portlandtribune.com/pt/12-sp...g-decision-to-leave-oregon-state-bittersweet-

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/12/how_mike_rileys_contract_with.html

Thanks. Though we all know you didn't just find these on a recent Google search. You had these saved on your favorites.

 

[LBremser_rivals78367]

It took me like 10 seconds to Google these

http://portlandtribune.com/pt/12-sp...g-decision-to-leave-oregon-state-bittersweet-

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/12/how_mike_rileys_contract_with.html

Thanks, I was going to post the link to the top article. After Pelini was fired, but before Riley was hired, a relative in Oregon who is a huge Beaver fan told me that the fans were done with Riley and the AD was trying to redo his contract.

 

[HuskerO58]

It took me like 10 seconds to Google these

http://portlandtribune.com/pt/12-sp...g-decision-to-leave-oregon-state-bittersweet-

http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2014/12/how_mike_rileys_contract_with.html

First article may have hinted at something, but mostly that the OSU AD didn't want Riley's contract to go to 2021 and then continue to extend just by Riley making a bowl game (stupid for any AD to agree to for any coach). Not that he was on the verge of being fired.

Second article didn't say a single thing or even hint about Riley being let go at OSU.

 

[HuskerO58]

Thanks, I was going to post the link to the top article. After Pelini was fired, but before Riley was hired, a relative in Oregon who is a huge Beaver fan told me that the fans were done with Riley and the AD was trying to redo his contract.

Of course because the contract was stupid for any school to agree to for any coach.

"Riley's contract included a provision that an additional year would be added each time the Beavers made a bowl game."

In the bowl game landscape where a 5-7 team and practically all 6-6 teams can make a bowl game, it was virtually a lifetime contract.

 

[Phillipe]

First article may have hinted at something, but mostly that the OSU AD didn't want Riley's contract to go to 2021 and then continue to extend just by Riley making a bowl game (stupid for any AD to agree to for any coach). Not that he was on the verge of being fired.

Second article didn't say a single thing or even hint about Riley being let go at OSU.

I didn't say he was going to be fired. I was responding to somebody saying there was no evidence of him being on the hot seat.
He went 2-13 in his last 15 pac 12 games. It's not hard to imagine that seat being very hot

 

[HuskerO58]

I didn't say he was going to be fired. I was responding to somebody saying there was no evidence of him being on the hot seat.
He went 2-13 in his last 15 pac 12 games. It's not hard to imagine that seat being very hot

Still, neither said anything about being in the hot seat. The contract was totally in Riley's favor and OSU was screwed. A dumb provision for any contract.

 

[jehresm]

Thanks. Though we all know you didn't just find these on a recent Google search. You had these saved on your favorites.

It's not rocket science. Google "riley discussion with oregon state athletic director"

 

[SnohomishRed]

every AD has a list of guys who they would want as their next head coach IF they need one. SE knew what he was going to do long before he did it IMO and Pelini is largely responsible for that. SE put up with it much longer than I would of. I think Riley was at the top of the list for whatever reasons and he took the job. Search committees and building consensus from that committee is not practical. History will judge but history requires us to let things play out.

From Eichorst lips himself The timing from Riley's standpoint was that the day before the OSU AD had met with him and wanted to get rid of some assistants - Riley basically had a lifetime contract at OSU - Riley was pissed and Eichorst called and he brought most of those assistants with him, in fact all the coaches that the AD at OSU and the fans were not happy with.

It was a flawed hire with a flawed search and was based on what Riley had done years before but did not take into account the most recent five year period

I posted this at the time of the hire and was told Eichorst was just throwing up smoke that were other coaches contacted first

www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_pS7akybPY&t=186s

 

[HuskerO58]

It's not rocket science. Google "riley discussion with oregon state athletic director"

I tried something more exact with, "Mike Riley hot seat Oregon State". You'd think your two articles would come up in the first 3 pages.

 

[SnohomishRed]

merci

and this:http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...earch-brought-mike-riley-nebraska-cornhuskers
There was no real search and Riley only left because the heat had been turned up at OSU

 

[SnohomishRed]

First article may have hinted at something, but mostly that the OSU AD didn't want Riley's contract to go to 2021 and then continue to extend just by Riley making a bowl game (stupid for any AD to agree to for any coach). Not that he was on the verge of being fired.

Second article didn't say a single thing or even hint about Riley being let go at OSU.

It wasnt Riley that was going to be let go - it was banker, Read and a few others

 

[HuskerO58]

It wasnt Riley that was going to be let go - it was banker, Read and a few others

Replace "fired" or "let go" with "hot seat" (I should have done that from the beginning), my statement still holds true.

 

[timnsun]

No, being a "professional" is not a valid reason. I was so excited when we fired a coach with nine wins thinking nine wins is not enough and the administration has a chance to bring in somebody better.

And instead we hired an aging mediocre coach that had gone 2-13 in his last 15 games. It's inexcusable to bring in the OSU staff to a program that is not satisfied with a coach that did more than Riley has ever done in college football.

Many people criticized it then. There is no hindsight needed. It was a bad decision that had predictable results.

It blows my mind that people are still buying the PR that has been pumped our way since the day the last guy was fired.

Thanks for doing the exact same thing John Ross Ewing did... just address the professionalism component and totally ignore my other two points.

It’s not as if I said the only reason he was hired was because he’s a professional... that’s it.

So why only address that part of what I said?

 

[huskerfan1414]

I’m not arguing the lack of development... that has been frustrating to watch. What I am saying is that there were a lot of voices in college football who praised this hire, and one of the reasons was he could develop players.

Just because we haven’t seen that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a reason.

I am as frustrated as you about where we are at, and ready to move on from Riley if he doesn’t turn it around this year. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any good reasons for the hire.

Honest question...have you ever seen a hire called "bad hire" by national folks or fellow coaches?

 

[timnsun]

Honest question...have you ever seen a hire called "bad hire" by national folks or fellow coaches?

Not very often, if at all. There’s no doubt I am easily swayed by the praises of others... heck, I thought Tanner Lee was gonna solve all our QB troubles!

I’m just trying to provide perspective for those who say there was absolutely no good reason for Eichorst to have offered the job to Riley.

I don’t think Eichorst offered him the job because he was a nice guy. There had to have been other reasons. One of them, in my opinion, has to do with recruiting. Even though the numbers and stats don’t necessarily wow us, what he has done has been impressive in terms of effort and approach. This is one reason he was hired. To bring in better talent. I do believe he could continue to bring in top talent...

Again, I am disappointed so far at the lack of development that seems to be present. I thought he would be much better at this than he has shown.

 

[Phillipe]

Thanks for doing the exact same thing John Ross Ewing did... just address the professionalism component and totally ignore my other two points.

It’s not as if I said the only reason he was hired was because he’s a professional... that’s it.

So why only address that part of what I said?

You mean the recruiting and developing part ? I figured you were joking.

For God's sake, that is laughable. He recruits just like the last guy and he develops obviously worse. There isn't much point in commenting on the obvious. We hired a worse coach, and that has gotten the AD fired. Mike Riley has never been a great coach, his record shows that. He is now pretty clearly a terrible coach. I responded only to the professionalism because I thought that was the only valid point you were trying to make. And that is the root of the problem. We hired a guy to play nice with the fans and the media. And the fans went along for the ride and now Nebraska is an utter joke. Well done.

 

[Snickerdoodle70]

Updated based on yesterday's results, 4-8/5-7 appears the most likely at this point. Does either save Mike for next year? Can only hope the new AD has a brain to look beyond the record and all the good things being done.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=158&year=2017



Projected win percentage (probability)
Fri, Sept 29 @ Illinois 60.5%
Sat, Oct 7 vs Wisconsin 9.5%
Sat, Oct 14 vs Ohio State 5.9%
Sat, Oct 28 @ Purdue 46.3%
Sat, Nov 4 vs Northwestern 42.2%
Sat, Nov 11 @ Minnesota 27.0%
Sat, Nov 18 @ Penn State 5.0%
Fri, Nov 24 vs Iowa 36.4%

Final record probability
2-10 | 4.61% | (approx 1 in 22)
3-9 | 19.74% | (approx 1 in 5)
4-8 | 32.86% | (approx 1 in 3)
5-7 | 27.40% | (approx 1 in 4)
6-6 | 12.20% | (approx 1 in 8)
7-5 | 2.85% | (approx 1 in 35)
8-4 | 0.325% | (approx 1 in 308)
9-3 | 0.0170% | (approx 1 in 5,894)
10-2 | 0.000326% | (approx 1 in 307,413)


5-7 or better | 42.80% | (approx 3 in 7)
6-6 or better | 15.40% | (approx 2 in 13)
7-5 or better | 3.19% | (approx 3 in 94)

If 4-8 or 5-7 "saves" MR, we are in serious need of an attitude adjustment.

 

[JohnRossEwing]

Honest question...have you ever seen a hire called "bad hire" by national folks or fellow coaches?

Yeah, no kidding, that hardly ever gets said. Every coach is pretty much a "great" hire at the start...then when they are canned you get the "He wasn't a fit from the start" articles.

 

[Pennsyhusker_rivals246774]

This is all very interesting and who really knows what was going on behind the scenes at Oregon State.

But here is what I know for certain: Unless we see a dramatic turnaround Mike Riley is going to be fired

And I further predict that Scott Frost will be our next coach.

 

[timnsun]

You mean the recruiting and developing part ? I figured you were joking.

For God's sake, that is laughable. He recruits just like the last guy and he develops obviously worse. There isn't much point in commenting on the obvious. We hired a worse coach, and that has gotten the AD fired. Mike Riley has never been a great coach, his record shows that. He is now pretty clearly a terrible coach. I responded only to the professionalism because I thought that was the only valid point you were trying to make. And that is the root of the problem. We hired a guy to play nice with the fans and the media. And the fans went along for the ride and now Nebraska is an utter joke. Well done.

I would ask for objectivity, but we both see it in different ways... I see a solid, definitive recruiting strategy in place. I see a coach that can bring in talent to OSU, so he should have an even easier time bringing in talent here. I see players from OSU making NFL rosters and playing at high levels.

All of this speaks to recruiting and development. Now I am talking about when he was hired, not how things are today, which is why I mention hindsight. But even then, his recruiting has improved from year 1 here to where things are at right now...

Again, I already have admitted that the development argument seems to have been faulty. But it was one of the reasons given for why he was hired.

 

[RealTucoSalamanca]

Yeah, no kidding, that hardly ever gets said. Every coach is pretty much a "great" hire at the start...then when they are canned you get the "He wasn't a fit from the start" articles.

Similar to every AD says this is the only guy on my list. This is the only guy we talked to. For some reason no AD says, this guy was 10th on my list but the first nine said no thanks. Again, that double talk goes both ways.

 

[HuskerDana_rivals188993]

I’m not arguing the lack of development... that has been frustrating to watch. What I am saying is that there were a lot of voices in college football who praised this hire, and one of the reasons was he could develop players.

Just because we haven’t seen that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a reason.

I am as frustrated as you about where we are at, and ready to move on from Riley if he doesn’t turn it around this year. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any good reasons for the hire.

THIS..... X1000.

 

[HuskerDana_rivals188993]

This is all very interesting and who really knows what was going on behind the scenes at Oregon State.

But here is what I know for certain: Unless we see a dramatic turnaround Mike Riley is going to be fired

And I further predict that Scott Frost will be our next coach.

Agreed, Pennsy. Unfortunately, even after Saturday, this looks much more like 2007 than Penn St. of last year.

Whether intended or not, remember the statement that says "the results have not translated to the FIELD"? Make no mistake, MR IS on the hot seat. I have seen some statements on here that say that MR will get another season or two regardless of how this season plays out. That will not happen if they finish .500 or under....or get their doors blown off in a couple of these upcoming games.

 

[JohnRossEwing]

Similar to every AD says this is the only guy on my list. This is the only guy we talked to. For some reason no AD says, this guy was 10th on my list but the first nine said no thanks. Again, that double talk goes both ways.

Very true

 

[RealTucoSalamanca]

Agreed, Pennsy. Unfortunately, even after Saturday, this looks much more like 2007 than Penn St. of last year.

Whether intended or not, remember the statement that says "the results have not translated to the FIELD"? Make no mistake, MR IS on the hot seat. I have seen some statements on here that say that MR will get another season or two regardless of how this season plays out. That will not happen if they finish .500 or under....or get their doors blown off in a couple of these upcoming games.

Well of course it's different than Penn St and more like 2007, the Penn St AD wasn't fired the week after Penn St lost to Pitt or the blowout loss to Michigan.

The 2007 similarities end at the AD change though. After Pedey was canned, Nebraska continued to decline and was blown out at home by an aTm that ended up firing their coach.

 

[HuskerDana_rivals188993]

Tuco, that is all I am saying. If things do not turn around pretty dramatically, MR will be gone. Some were saying MR will get an extra season at least no matter what.

Also, in comparing the 2007 team and last year's PSU team, I was talking about the chances of a dramatic turnaround, not circumstances.

 

[dinglefritz]

Similar to every AD says this is the only guy on my list. This is the only guy we talked to. For some reason no AD says, this guy was 10th on my list but the first nine said no thanks. Again, that double talk goes both ways.

As quickly as it happened though we either got some VERY quick negative responses from other potential candidates OR Riley was in fact at the top of the list. I think it's that Riley was the top of the list and SE's explanation seems very logical. Personally with the toxic situation we had here, TO looking over a new coach's shoulder, a questionable situation talent wise, and a tough recruiting base I'm not sure who would have been interested at that juncture other than a young unproven guy from a MAC level team etc. It had to be a guy that was getting a significant pay raise or much better situation to take the job or they weren't coming.

 

[RealTucoSalamanca]

Tuco, that is all I am saying. If things do not turn around pretty dramatically, MR will be gone. Some were saying MR will get an extra season at least no matter what.

Also, in comparing the 2007 team and last year's PSU team, I was talking about the chances of a dramatic turnaround, not circumstances.

ok, I just don't see much similarities to 2007 other than Nebraska fired an AD midseason. Riley isn't refusing to make changes to get better or disrespecting traditions like Callahan did. Riley doesn't appear to have lost his team like Callahan did.

Sorry that I misunderstood you point.

 

[RealTucoSalamanca]

As quickly as it happened though we either got some VERY quick negative responses from other potential candidates OR Riley was in fact at the top of the list. I think it's that Riley was the top of the list and SE's explanation seems very logical. Personally with the toxic situation we had here, TO looking over a new coach's shoulder, a questionable situation talent wise, and a tough recruiting base I'm not sure who would have been interested at that juncture other than a young unproven guy from a MAC level team etc. It had to be a guy that was getting a significant pay raise or much better situation to take the job or they weren't coming.

As I said before, I KNOW at least 2 other guys were contacted and said no thanks before Riley was contacted. I am not necessarily saying Riley was 10th on the list, that was an exaggeration, but he wasn't the first or second call, and in an effort to avoid the public embarrassment, similar to what happened in 2003, he quickly went to the guy who would say yes. Did he do that too quickly? Probably, but this was his first big hire and he was told no thanks by at least his top 2 guys.

 

[WHCSC]

As I said before, I KNOW at least 2 other guys were contacted and said no thanks before Riley was contacted. I am not necessarily saying Riley was 10th on the list, that was an exaggeration, but he wasn't the first or second call, and in an effort to avoid the public embarrassment, similar to what happened in 2003, he quickly went to the guy who would say yes. Did he do that too quickly? Probably, but this was his first big hire and he was told no thanks by at least his top 2 guys.

Who were they?

 

[dinglefritz]

No, I don't. I suppose I could google it. But there was an article at the time about a difficult meeting between Riley and his AD right before he hired him. One of the Oregon papers. It has been cited often since in articles about Riley. Of course not by Nebraska media, but we can guess why that is

So you're guessing.

I didn't say he was going to be fired. I was responding to somebody saying there was no evidence of him being on the hot seat.
He went 2-13 in his last 15 pac 12 games. It's not hard to imagine that seat being very hot

now you're imagining. People question what the reporters covering Nebraska football write and you're willing to gobble up a 2nd rate reporter's assumptions in Corvallis as gospel? Gotcha. We know 2 things as fact. Riley had a tough year at OSU. SE offered him a huge pay raise at a much better program. That is EVIDENCE. What you offer is speculation not evidence.