Expectation Moving Forward

[RikeMiley]

 

[Kakdawg]

I still think this is a 6-6 or 5-7 team. We will beat Maryland most likely. After that, every game is a problem. Even Rutgers

I had us at 6-6 to 7-5. Haven't seen anything to change my mind either way yet. I'll stand pat...



Holla

 

[Kakdawg]

Between Rule and Nelson, the RB spot is B1G ready. Mozee can produce if the blocking is there. They brought in the kid from PSU, but I’m sure he saw the writing on the wall. Genatone is a program veteran and has good athleticism for his size. There were times when NU had four backs that could start for most teams. I’d say along with Ives, NU has five guys that can at least produce in league play. That’s a luxury and it’s reflective of the level of coaching at that psn.

I think you have our RBs a bit over rated. 5 guys you think can produce in LEAGUE PLAY?? Seriously


Holla

 

[Kakdawg]

It’s the OL that was disappointing in this game and hopefully they can gel more and continue to improve. Rule or no Rule the Huskers have to run the ball more effectively. And of imperative importance is that Colandrea not be the leading rusher as the season continues.

I'm surprised more people were a bit disappointed in the OL last night. Especially in the run game. I think we need to be better there. Especially early.


Holla

 

[Kakdawg]

There starting RB is not that good.

He averaged 3.6 against Toledo and 3.2 against Notre Dame. In Notre Dame game backups averaged same YPT as he did. It would have hardly made any difference in stat our outcome.

Now losing your 10 YPT back after 4 carries could be considered impactful.

I'm starting to think you just pulled stats and didn't watch games. Their starting RB is a dude. He will play in Sundays. All things being equal I'd take him over either of our backs right now.

Not sure what you have watched.



Holla

 

[skin-tight]

Based on models, likelyhood of 5 or few is under 10% and 7 under 30%.

Still reasonably possible but would require a couple of assumptions

1. Colandrea misses significant time (Mobile QB so possible)
2. Nebraska losses all close games (Matt Rhule effect, possible)
3. Nebraska is simply much worse than currently predicted by these efficiency models (100% possible) relative to teams like Rutger, Washington and Maryland which modles predict 10+ point spreads on nuetral field

Future games will tell us but any who thinks 5 is currently possible without injury if completely ignoring what Aurich and Colandrea are doing.

Nebraska held MSU to 1.2 yards per carry which was less than Notre Dame. Defensively we gave up an extra yard per pass but weather conditions were bad in Notredame game, impacting passing game. This Aurich coached defense is not going to have games against physical but average teams like MSU or Minnesota last year where we just got just get bludgeoned on ground. Aurich has eliminated that possibility with scheme, development and finding competitive upper class players llike whittington (very impressive so far) and stoudimire plugging in around developing second team guys. Second team line of Nwaneri, Poppel, Terry and Petz is vastly more stout against run this year than last years starting group and contain some reasonably highly highly thought of recruits including a 5 star, 4 star and two higher end three stars all in atleast second year.

Lastly Colandrea is the x factor. When we get into late game situations in loseable games they will take the kid gloves off Colandrea and offense will 1/4 to 1/3rd quarter back scramble and run with Colandrea becoming much more aggresive in those scenarios and able to break down well defended plays. While this will likely be highly effective you can only utilizes it when absolutely necessary if you want guy playing 12 games. Second we get into 4th in a loseable game you will see play call lean heavily into his strenths.

I guess if Nebraska ends up 6-6 I would not be shocked based on last 10 years but solely based on what i am seeing this year I don't expect anything less than 7.

I'll bite. What are these "models" that you are referring too? Are these published models? what is the track record of these models with BIG TEN teams over the past 10 years? I'm guessing the track record must be very high in validity and reliability?

 

[skin-tight]

He’s also a high motor adrenaline machine. I would still do an MRI on a RB of his importance. Be sure.

agree, The imaging will rule out structural integrity issues and will give a greater prognosis for return to game function time line.

 

[inWV]

I think you have our RBs a bit over rated. 5 guys you think can produce in LEAGUE PLAY?? Seriously


Holla

Produce in league play means making plays that contribute to winning games. Genatone did not look out of place yesterday. Ives can do the same things. That group is well coached and know what they are supposed to be doing. Genatone had not repped that TD pass he caught in practice for some time.

 

[Pennsyhuskers]

I walked around on a destroyed meniscus for several days before I had an MRI. Had most of it removed. You don’t slow play knees. MRIs are almost routine for many P4 players experiencing an injury now. They have a bunch of money invested in these kids.

Fingers crossed on Rule!

Something Gary Sharp said (I think it was him) this morning. Was some coaches make programs better than they should be. Devaney and Osborne did that. Bobby Bowden did that at FSU. Cignetti is currently doing it at Indiana.
The program was 4-8 the year before Rhule took over and a couple of those four wins were a struggle. The team was 3-9 the year before. Of course the strength of the roster had to reflect that performance. The coaching staff that came after that was imperfect but managed to improve the roster and the teams performance. I think the present staff is the best of Rhule’s tenure and I think the players are going to be able to play to their capabilities and we may find that some of them are outstanding players. Chambliss and Colandrea are playing really well.
The team has the potential to be on the level of one of the Pelini teams.

Actually, in Osborne’s first five years he did not improve anything. He inherited a national contender team from Devaney. His breakthrough really did not come until beating OU in 78 for the first time. Then his teams got better and better. And Devaney improved things IMMEDIATELY. As did Cignetti. And now we have the portal and NIL. Game is radically different. In year four Rhule’s team should be excellent. It is better. But it isn’t all that impressive. And we have yet another new coaching staff.
Rhule is not as good a coach as Pelini. He will not win 9 games this season. Or in any season.

 

[Man Woman & Child]

Our back 7 on defense is as good as there is in the country.

Is this a type-o? Or sarcasm?

 

[redwine65]

I'd expect beating maryland by 1 while focusing on beating indiana by 1

 

[poundth3rock]

I'm starting to think you just pulled stats and didn't watch games. Their starting RB is a dude. He will play in Sundays. All things being equal I'd take him over either of our backs right now.

Not sure what you have watched.



Holla

Watched them plenty as Big breaks games into 60 minute chunks so you get to see all the teams. Watched some Uconn and tried to watch the UCLA game but there were so bad it hurt my eyes and had to stop. Personlly like your posts but disagree with ou on this one.

What I noticed when watching is they can't run the football and there not great at stopping the run. Check the stats to see if I was just being unfair and stats were suprisingly worse than I thought.

They had 67 yard on 31 attempts against uconn, they had 61 yards on 21 carries against Virginia Tech and were down 35-14 until 5:00 in fouth qaurter. Then they really got going against UCLA where they had 39 yards on 30 carries and enbarrased themselves agasint a team that had to travel 3 time zones.

That team is not traveling two time zones to Memerial stadium with no running game and well below average run defense and winning this game. I have been wrong a lot in my life but I feel pretty strong on this one.

 

[poundth3rock]

I'll bite. What are these "models" that you are referring too? Are these published models? what is the track record of these models with BIG TEN teams over the past 10 years? I'm guessing the track record must be very high in validity and reliability?

Any predictive model.

ESPN has the easiest one to consume and it is free. It shows something called BPI which tries to predict what you would do against average college team on nuetral field and then weights all teams by that number. They update it every Sunday morning and it predicts expected record and playoff percentage updated for weeks results. Early in season you can get very large swings. Link to model if

2026 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2026 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

There are other models like team rankings and some are free and some hide behind paywalls. Some models throw out results from any blowout or against certain competition. But the purpose of all of them is to predict future results based on inputs like offense, defense, special teams and score. I use the ESPN one mostly but do check others to see if they are in line. For example, ESPN has us 14 but team rankings has us 31. It is most likely throws out some of our results and is incorporating preseason rankings heavier.

NCAA College Football Predictive Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Predictive Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

Like any model they all have flaws ands outliers, particularly early in season and are better as more games are played. I enjoy looking at them but some people hate them, particularly if they don't aling with persons views.

 

[Man Woman & Child]

Watched them plenty as Big breaks games into 60 minute chunks so you get to see all the teams. Watched some Uconn and tried to watch the UCLA game but there were so bad it hurt my eyes and had to stop. Personlly like your posts but disagree with ou on this one.

What I noticed when watching is they can't run the football and there not great at stopping the run. Check the stats to see if I was just being unfair and stats were suprisingly worse than I thought.

They had 67 yard on 31 attempts against uconn, they had 61 yards on 21 carries against Virginia Tech and were down 35-14 until 5:00 in fouth qaurter. Then they really got going against UCLA where they had 39 yards on 30 carries and enbarrased themselves agasint a team that had to travel 3 time zones.

That team is not traveling two time zones to Memerial stadium with no running game and well below average run defense and winning this game. I have been wrong a lot in my life but I feel pretty strong on this one.

We were talking about the MSU starting running back.

 

[poundth3rock]

We were talking about the MSU starting running back.

 

[Man Woman & Child]

Good point

 

[skin-tight]

Any predictive model.

ESPN has the easiest one to consume and it is free. It shows something called BPI which tries to predict what you would do against average college team on nuetral field and then weights all teams by that number. They update it every Sunday morning and it predicts expected record and playoff percentage updated for weeks results. Early in season you can get very large swings. Link to model if

2026 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2026 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

There are other models like team rankings and some are free and some hide behind paywalls. Some models throw out results from any blowout or against certain competition. But the purpose of all of them is to predict future results based on inputs like offense, defense, special teams and score. I use the ESPN one mostly but do check others to see if they are in line. For example, ESPN has us 14 but team rankings has us 31. It is most likely throws out some of our results and is incorporating preseason rankings heavier.

NCAA College Football Predictive Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Predictive Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

Like any model they all have flaws ands outliers, particularly early in season and are better as more games are played. I enjoy looking at them but some people hate them, particularly if they don't aling with persons views.

Thank you, do you know what the accuracy and reliability of the ESPN model in regards to Big Ten teams? when prognosticating after 4 games?