Expected Team Points 1/20/26

[Wrestleknownothing]

After a tough week Iowa slides three slots to sixth, but really a dead heat for fifth with Nebraska.

Meanwhile, third is not out of reach even with Iowa State and Oklahoma State to pass.

Both Ohio State and Penn State improved their positions, though Penn State saw a larger jump than Ohio State to extend their lead in expected points to the highest point since the first month of the season.

 

[HugoHugo]

How/why did Iowa fall off a cliff since 12/15? Endene leaving and some losses by guys expected to perform better?

 

[AndEEss]

Josh Barr came back which dropped Endene down, and then he left the team, Drake took two more losses and dropped rank, Block took two more losses and dropped rank, Angelo lost and dropped rank, Kueter took a loss and dropped rank.

 

[MSU158]

How/why did Iowa fall off a cliff since 12/15? Endene leaving and some losses by guys expected to perform better?

Endene and Ayala, alone, lose them quite a bit of points. Not sure exactly what he uses for 4th place, but Endene should be 12.5 plus any bonus he may use in his formula for 4th ranked expectations. Ayala dropping to 10th takes him completely out of any placement points so he lost at least 3.5 points dropping from 8th to 10th. Add 16 to their tally and they are in 3rd....

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

How/why did Iowa fall off a cliff since 12/15? Endene leaving and some losses by guys expected to perform better?

7 of 10 wrestlers are ranked lower (or not at all - Endene) than they were in December.



That has led to a weekly decline in expected points. This table is week over week delta, so you need to sum across for the total impact. For example, Bailey dropped 0.5 points, then dropped another 1.6 points, before regaining 0.7 points, for a net loss of 1.4 points over the month.



Obviously, Endene was the big hit to the total, but there are also a lot of small hit.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

How/why did Iowa fall off a cliff since 12/15? Endene leaving and some losses by guys expected to perform better?

Yes. Endene at #4 no more, with zero replacement. 125, 133, 141, 157, 184, and 285 all ranked lower than before.

Only 165 and 174 holding steady. Part of it is how Flo starts the season and uses head to head transitive properly versus other forms of judgment. Those other forms might not have ranked some so high (e.g. Bailey up a weight, Kueter surgery recovery).