Expected Team Points 1/20/26

[Wrestleknownothing]

Oklahoma State continues its slow grind upward this week to move into a virtual tie with Iowa State in the third position for expected team points.

They will need to pick up the pace though if they want to catch Ohio State or Penn State at the top. Both teams had a good week and extended their lead over their next closest competitor this week.

At the other end of the spectrum, Iowa took a tumble, moving from a dead heat for first on 12/15 to battling it out with Nebraska for fifth this week.

 

[AtownPoke]

Insane man. It blows my mind to think about how much talent we have and they are projecting to double us up.

 

[Btbw1968]

We were that way in the early 2000's. I remember posting on the mat and everybody else thought it was hopeless to compete for the title.
To your point even if we get development in our upper weights PSU is still going to be very tough.
At a Saturday lunch an Iowa fan said they would be doing good if we quit pinning everybody.

 

[Pokes1988]

Interesting, were our points adjusted with adding Forres? It could be because he's not ranked I don't believe to this point....But he's dominated everything he's done so far...I could see us taking a few points away....Maybe even getting to 100?

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Interesting, were our points adjusted with adding Forres? It could be because he's not ranked I don't believe to this point....But he's dominated everything he's done so far...I could see us taking a few points away....Maybe even getting to 100?

Jax was ranked at #9. He should move up at least 3 spots this week based on Van Dee and Knox losses, and Crookham's injury. I'll assume Seidel won't leapfrog Jax by virtue of Seidel's win over Knox

A move from 9 to 6 only nets 7 more points per how Flo does its tournament ranking. Although the OP predicts tournament scores differently, I don't think Jax alone would contribute +14ish this week. In the end, he very well may by making the finals.

I understand Total Tourney Points per Flo Ranking Position is something like this (though the OP uses something different).
1: 20.0
2: 16.0
3: 13.5
4: 12.5
5: 10.0
6: 9.0
7: 6.5
8: 5.5
9-12: 2
13-16: 1.5
17-24: 0.5
25-33: 0.0

 

[okokzach]

Crookham's injury isn't official so I don't think Flo will remove him until it's announced by the school or confirmed directly by him

 

[chasepollard]

1: 20.0
2: 16.0
3: 13.5
4: 12.5
5: 10.0
6: 9.0
7: 6.5
8: 5.5

That really simplifies the process of projecting for me.

200 points for the Cowboys! Over 100 if we get the flu.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Jax was ranked at #9. He should move up at least 3 spots this week based on Van Dee and Knox losses, and Crookham's injury. I'll assume Seidel won't leapfrog Jax by virtue of Seidel's win over Knox

A move from 9 to 6 only nets 7 more points per how Flo does its tournament ranking. Although the OP predicts tournament scores differently, I don't think Jax alone would contribute +14ish this week. In the end, he very well may by making the finals.

I understand Total Tourney Points per Flo Ranking Position is something like this (though the OP uses something different).
1: 20.0
2: 16.0
3: 13.5
4: 12.5
5: 10.0
6: 9.0
7: 6.5
8: 5.5
9-12: 2
13-16: 1.5
17-24: 0.5
25-33: 0.0

Flo? How dare you?

1: 20.0
2: 16.0
3: 13.5
4: 12.5
5: 10.0
6: 9.0
7: 6.5
8: 5.5

That really simplifies the process of projecting for me.

200 points for the Cowboys! Over 100 if we get the flu.

Simplifies? Pistols at dawn.

Interesting, were our points adjusted with adding Forres? It could be because he's not ranked I don't believe to this point....But he's dominated everything he's done so far...I could see us taking a few points away....Maybe even getting to 100?

Yes, Forrest is included at the #9 slot. In my model 9th is good for 5.4 expected points. I cannot imagine he isn't among the top 4 when seeds happen. That would put him in the range of 19.8 - 11.3 expected points; just above 100 team points, or in sight of it.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

This is probably a good place to post this again. The problem with the Flo methodology is it assumes that their #1 will always finish first, their #2 will always finish second, etc. But this never happens. I take a probablistic approach built off of the prior ~10 years results to come up with expected points by seed.

The #1 seed only wins ~50% of the time, and ~2% of the time does not even AA. So it does not make sense to assign maximum advancement and placement points to all #1 seeds. Likewise, every year wrestlers seeded #9 and lower actually AA. As a matter of fact about 28% of AA's are seeded #9 or lower.

As a result, Flo overvalues top 8 seeds and undervalues everyone else when they are calculating team points.

The difference between the two approaches looks like this:



On top of that, my model includes expected bonus points (not pictured above) while Flo's does not.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I couldn't have been more wrong. Flo never ceases to amaze. Jax dropped to 11. Both Ayala and Seidel jumped above. Crookham wasn't removed. Neither Van Dee or Knox dropped below him.

 

[FourCornersCowboy]

I couldn't have been more wrong. Flo never ceases to amaze. Jax dropped to 11. Both Ayala and Seidel jumped above. Crookham wasn't removed. Neither Van Dee or Knox dropped below him.

They know their market and it ain’t us, that’s fine but we shouldn’t take them serious.

 

[okokzach]

I couldn't have been more wrong. Flo never ceases to amaze. Jax dropped to 11. Both Ayala and Seidel jumped above. Crookham wasn't removed. Neither Van Dee or Knox dropped below him.

It makes sense for how they do their rankings. They try to remove opinions and just go off results.

Knox was #7. Seidel nearly teched him (along with other impressive wins) so he comes in at #7 and Knox moves down one.

Van Dee was #8. Ayala beat him handily, so he takes his spot and Van Dee moves down one.

Could be worse. Intermat has Jax at 14 (up from 15!)

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

It makes sense for how they do their rankings. They try to remove opinions and just go off results.

Knox was #7. Seidel nearly teched him (along with other impressive wins) so he comes in at #7 and Knox moves down one.

Van Dee was #8. Ayala him handily, so he takes his spot and Van Dee moves down one.

Could be worse. Intermat has Jax at 14 (up from 15!)

Sure, but everybody knows:
1) The transitive property doesn't work in wrestling (it's about stylistic match ups, ability, and strategy);
2) Jax is a very bad stylistic match up with proven elite abilities; and,
3) It'd be very hard to find many takers to bet straight up that a healthy Jax won't finish top 4, let alone fail to AA.

It's ridiculous to me to jump Seidel above Jax and keep Knox above him. Jax beat him preventing his 4th PA state title in 2025. Nobody who's seen Jax wrestle since thinks he's hasn't jumped even more levels... but Seidel has jumped more?

Knox hasn't really beaten anyone of note this year, has he? I guess we can wait until the ISU dual to see a win over Frost leapfrog Jax to #3 based on that result.

 

[Chasingthirty-five]

I mean that’s what it comes down to, time for him to rack up some wins and this convo is over.

If he wasn’t at OSU and he was immediately top 5 we would be saying how bias they are lol.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I mean that’s what it comes down to, time for him to rack up some wins and this convo is over.

If he wasn’t at OSU and he was immediately top 5 we would be saying how bias they are lol.

Flo started other obviously generational true freshman top 5s, like Jax super low, (see PJ Duke and Marcus Blaze). Collectively, their season finishes will prove just how useless Flo's rankings are through most of the season.

Dee Lockett wasn't ranked then jumped to #4 after beating an overrated Hunter Garvin, 2-1, who is now unranked. Not knocking Dee, he did also squeak by Caliendo. But that's literally 2 results head-to-head that assume the transitive property and don't account for future familiarity.

Basically, most wrestlers who didn't qualify for last year's NCAAs and didn't participate in the National Dual Invitational tend to be severely under ranked and overly dependent on their schedule. And when someone ranked ahead of them sits 'to recover from a minor tweak' (aka suspected of ducking to protect NCAA seed), well that is just the icing on the cake.

The Flo ranking approach is overly simplistic in these regards.

 

[okokzach]

Sure, but everybody knows:
1) The transitive property doesn't work in wrestling (it's about stylistic match ups, ability, and strategy);
2) Jax is a very bad stylistic match up with proven elite abilities; and,
3) It'd be very hard to find many takers to bet straight up that a healthy Jax won't finish top 4, let alone fail to AA.

It's ridiculous to me to jump Seidel above Jax and keep Knox above him. Jax beat him preventing his 4th PA state title in 2025. Nobody who's seen Jax wrestle since thinks he's hasn't jumped even more levels... but Seidel has jumped more?

Knox hasn't really beaten anyone of note this year, has he? I guess we can wait until the ISU dual to see a win over Frost leapfrog Jax to #3 based on that result.

I'm just trying to explain how their rankings methodology works. You can disagree with it, but they're pretty consistent in how they apply it.

They don't consider high school results, freestyle results, etc. They do consider past college results though so the fact that Knox AA'd last year gave him a higher starting position in the rankings and then it's been adjusted from there.

Jax is only ranked as high as he is because of his performances at college opens when he was a freshman and sophomore in high school. Similar for Blaze which is why he started at #10.

It sounds like you prefer opinion-based rankings like Willie's Crystal Ball. Me too! Willie is making a prediction. Flo is not.

So no matter how guys finish at NCAAs, it won't reflect positively or negatively on their current rankings. You can be mad about what it isn't or you can just take it for what it is.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I'm just trying to explain how their rankings methodology works. You can disagree with it, but they're pretty consistent in how they apply it.

They don't consider high school results, freestyle results, etc. They do consider past college results though so the fact that Knox AA'd last year gave him a higher starting position in the rankings and then it's been adjusted from there.

Jax is only ranked as high as he is because of his performances at college opens when he was a freshman and sophomore in high school. Similar for Blaze which is why he started at #10.

It sounds like you prefer opinion-based rankings like Willie's Crystal Ball. Me too! Willie is making a prediction. Flo is not.

So no matter how guys finish at NCAAs, it won't reflect positively or negatively on their current rankings. You can be mad about what it isn't or you can just take it for what it is.

Thanks. I think I understand how it "works." Minimal effort to create content. Crowd source feedback to consider future changes. I'm not mad about it. I just think it's a subpar product.

Would you hire a home architect who applies a very limited flawed rote formula or one who demonstrates critical judgment and justifies their reasoning? Preferring Willie tells me you'd prefer the latter. And I think that generally applies to the masses.

 

[oberebo]

I actually do not care if Jax is ranked at all. Either he is not going to redshirt and will prove his true ranking by actually wrestling or he will redshirt and be out of the rankings. I have already said I hope he redshirts. I do not see the value to our team this year when Penn State will finish 50 points or more ahead of everyone else regardless of where Jax finishes.
I guess you could argue that if he continues to wrestle that the RPI etc. will determine his seed at Nationals giving him a better chance to win it all. My point is based on his matches so far he should not be ranked unless Polls are not based on performance but rather than what prognosticators believe he will finish.

 

[Anon1751751898]

I mean that’s what it comes down to, time for him to rack up some wins and this convo is over.

If he wasn’t at OSU and he was immediately top 5 we would be saying how bias they are lol.

PJ Duke on November 17th was unrated without a Penn. St. rated 157. November 24th Duke was rated 29th first appearing in Flow's ratings at 157, December 1 he was rated 29th, on December 8th after a few wins he jumped to 12th, on December 15th he jumped to 11th. Jax will jump when he has beaten a high rated wrestler. I don't mind the ratings based on results of mostly this year. Freshmen have to earn their rating based on results from this year.

 

[Cowboy1989]

I actually do not care if Jax is ranked at all. Either he is not going to redshirt and will prove his true ranking by actually wrestling or he will redshirt and be out of the rankings. I have already said I hope he redshirts. I do not see the value to our team this year when Penn State will finish 50 points or more ahead of everyone else regardless of where Jax finishes.
I guess you could argue that if he continues to wrestle that the RPI etc. will determine his seed at Nationals giving him a better chance to win it all. My point is based on his matches so far he should not be ranked unless Polls are not based on performance but rather than what prognosticators believe he will finish.

The value that Jax gives to OSU by wrestling this year is extremely high in my opinion. His addition to the lineup as a high schooler continues to put the wrestling world's spot light directly on OSU and if it's on OSU that means it's not on PSU like it has been for the last 15 years. OSU has a fantastic chance to roll into nationals this year with 6 freshmen in the lineup and place top 3 - a feat that has never been done before - without Jax, unlikely we place top 3. OSU could put multiple freshmen in the finals. At last year's NCAA PSU blew everyone away, but all the talk was on what OSU did - we need to keep it that way. All this buzz and excitement results in recruiting wins and high team morale and good team chemistry and that results in winning future team titles. We need to take another step forward this year as a program, not backward and wrestling Jax allows us to do just that.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Crookham's injury isn't official so I don't think Flo will remove him until it's announced by the school or confirmed directly by him

So next week then.

 

[okokzach]

Gotta feel for him. Terrible luck with injuries

 

[alephpoke]

Terrible luck, but his unorthodox style also seems to put so much stress on his ligaments. Probably too late to change the tactics that make him so successful but man it hurts to watch him wrestle

 

[glorycowboy]

Jax has 4, 7, 9, 18, 5 (In big 12s) Flo ranked 133 wrestlers still remaining this year, he will be top 4 at end of Big 12s if he doesnt lose. And, Even top 2-3 depending on how BIG tournament goes. Rankings will take care of themselves.

If he is undefeated, I see him at 2 going into NCAAs, And I think Blaze will be 1 if he is undefeated by BIG.

 

[chasepollard]

Jax has 4, 7, 9, 18, 5 (In big 12s) Flo ranked 133 wrestlers still remaining this year, he will be top 4 at end of Big 12s if he doesnt lose. And, Even top 2-3 depending on how BIG tournament goes. Rankings will take care of themselves.

If he is undefeated, I see him at 2 going into NCAAs, And I think Blaze will be 1 if he is undefeated by BIG.

If he does that undefeated and doesn’t enter as the one (which I don’t like being the 1)….

Actually, what is Blazes path to NCAAs?

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Actually, what is Blazes path to NCAAs?

Remaining:
Neb Van Dee (#10)
UofM Botero (UNR)
tOSU Davino (#2)
Princ Jones INJ?/Clark (UNR) Princeton forfeited the weight their last dual vs Rider

B1Gs
featuring the 3 B1G wrestlers from above and:
IL Byrd (#1) - did not face
IA Ayala (#9) - Dec
WI Fugitt (#12) - did not face
MD Brown (#22) - Maj
NW Spidle (#25) - Maj
Pur Boarman (#30) - did not face
MSU Weiand (#31) - did not face
Rut Shawver (#33) - Maj

Blaze's path to #1 NCAA seed likely goes thru Davino the current #2 twice, and the current #1 and returning NCAA champ in the B1G finals. It's a path that is objectively more difficult than Jax remaining schedule, where the #1 NCAA seed is the goal. Still, Blaze controls his own destiny where Jax doesn't.

 

[okokzach]

Objectively more difficult than Jax remaining schedule.

If he faces Byrd at B10s then yes, but that's not guaranteed.

I would put Seidel in the same tier as Davino, and Frost in a tier above Van Dee. Jax also faces Ayala who has looked like his old self in his past couple of matches, and #18 Farber.

So I would say Jax has a tougher remainder to the regular season and Blaze has a tougher conference tournament (Davino + Byrd vs. Frost + Larkin) but you never know who you'll actually face there.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

If he faces Byrd at B10s then yes, but that's not guaranteed.

I would put Seidel in the same tier as Davino, and Frost in a tier above Van Dee. Jax also faces Ayala who has looked like his old self in his past couple of matches, and #18 Farber.

So I would say Jax has a tougher remainder to the regular season and Blaze has a tougher conference tournament (Davino + Byrd vs. Frost + Larkin) but you never know who you'll actually face there.

Just talking toughest path to #1 NCAA seed assuming seeds hold.

Jax unlikely to pass B1G winner unless the Blaze/Davino dual loser wins a B1G semi rematch then goes on to beat Byrd in the finals.

Most likely Byrd is undefeated going into B1G finals. He has Ayala's number. He will be #1 B1G seed with an easier path to the B1G finals.

Blaze/Davino winner will be #2 seed and loser the #3. Byrd won't have faced either Davino or Blaze until the B1G finals.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

What's the plan to get Jax his 15 matches for NCAA seeding? By my count he would end up at 13 or 14 unless he goes to another open. 15 are needed for RPI ranking. Won't be a top 4 seed without an RPI ranking.

 

[okokzach]

What's the plan to get Jax his 15 matches for NCAA seeding? By my count he would end up at 13 or 14 unless he goes to another open. 15 are needed for RPI ranking. Won't be a top 4 seed without an RPI ranking.

Assuming we get Utah Valley rescheduled, that would give him 11 matches going into B12s. Then 3 or 4 more matches there if he stays on the top side. So he would finish with 14 or 15, depending on whether he gets a bye at conferences, which is out of our control. So yeah, finding an open would be wise I think.

He could have gone to the Bloomsburg Open this past weekend instead of going to Mizzou and that would have solved it. Maybe they didn't do it because of the weather or maybe they have another open in mind?

 

[cbond]

Assuming we get Utah Valley rescheduled, that would give him 11 matches going into B12s. Then 3 or 4 more matches there if he stays on the top side. So he would finish with 14 or 15, depending on whether he gets a bye at conferences, which is out of our control. So yeah, finding an open would be wise I think.

He could have gone to the Bloomsburg Open this past weekend instead of going to Mizzou and that would have solved it. Maybe they didn't do it because of the weather or maybe they have another open in mind?

Not wise probably but could be fun to let him go in unseeded and just blow the bracket to pieces by sending seeded guys to consolations way early and then some not making AA which could greatly affect team score.

 

[Howie_Fartz]

He needs to be seeded to get 2 rounds of bonus points. Quarters will be tough no matter what as they will all be talented. Im not sure what style plays into Jax's style the best at this point? Will he be better off outscrambling the scramblers of facing someone really strong that holds excellent position putting them in uncomfortable positions?

 

[chasepollard]

He needs to be seeded to get 2 rounds of bonus points. Quarters will be tough no matter what as they will all be talented. Im not sure what style plays into Jax's style the best at this point? Will he be better off outscrambling the scramblers of facing someone really strong that holds excellent position putting them in uncomfortable positions?

Nah, give him the 33…he bonuses out!

 

[ionel]

He needs to be seeded to get 2 rounds of bonus points.

Nah, give him the 33…he bonuses out!

He will be seeded and maybe 33 is a good spot.

 

[Corby2]

He won't be 33 just because he doesn't have an RPI it's only a % of the formula

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Assuming we get Utah Valley rescheduled, that would give him 11 matches going into B12s. Then 3 or 4 more matches there if he stays on the top side. So he would finish with 14 or 15, depending on whether he gets a bye at conferences, which is out of our control. So yeah, finding an open would be wise I think.

He could have gone to the Bloomsburg Open this past weekend instead of going to Mizzou and that would have solved it. Maybe they didn't do it because of the weather or maybe they have another open in mind?

Jax record is confusing me. 5-0 on WrestStat, but 6-0 in OkState match notes. I think his win over Ortega, Reineri at Clarion Open may not officially count for NCAA seeding.

Jax official bouts to date = 5
Remaining non-postponed duals = 5
UVU, if rescheduled = 1
Big 12 Tournament = 3 or 4

Required byes are randomly drawn into the Big 12s (not always first assigned to top-seeded wrestlers), right?

Min possible is 5+5+3 =13
Max possible is 5+5+1+4 = 15

Is that what you have? He only gets to 15 if UVU is rescheduled AND he doesn't get a bye at Big 12?

Losing in B12 to get additional matches is counter productive.

I agree with you, for Jax to guarantee a high seed, he should find another tournament that will give him two matches against D1 opponents that aren't his teammates. Then he'll be forced to complete it, to avoid taking a mandatory loss, which would partially defeat any high NCAA seeding goal.

Just a small additional adversity, I guess.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Not wise probably but could be fun to let him go in unseeded and just blow the bracket to pieces by sending seeded guys to consolations way early and then some not making AA which could greatly affect team score.

IDK. If the timing and size of any additional tournament is detrimental to training to peak for NCAAs, then I could see Jax getting less than the 15 matches. Starocci (2023-24) and Brooks (2022-23) overcame it. I don't think it would be done purposefully to blow up the 133 lb bracket.

 

[okokzach]

Is that what you have? He only gets to 15 if UVU is rescheduled AND he doesn't get a bye at Big 12?

Losing in B12 to get additional matches is counter productive.

I agree with you, for Jax to guarantee a high seed, he should find another tournament that will give him two matches against D1 opponents that aren't his teammates. Then he'll be forced to complete it, to avoid taking a mandatory loss, which would partially defeat any high NCAA seeding goal.

Just a small additional adversity, I guess.

Yes exactly, BUT... It looks like UVU isn't going to happen. DT just said "I would love to get it back on the schedule, but it doesn't look promising." The implication seemed to be UVU is the one holding things up

So with that there's no chance Jax can get to 15 without another open.

 

[Okie_Pat]

Those are the dice you roll when you bring in a Senior in High School to start. If Jax is who we all think he is seeding wont matter.

 

[joberfire"okstatefan"]

I actually do not care if Jax is ranked at all. Either he is not going to redshirt and will prove his true ranking by actually wrestling or he will redshirt and be out of the rankings. I have already said I hope he redshirts. I do not see the value to our team this year when Penn State will finish 50 points or more ahead of everyone else regardless of where Jax finishes.
I guess you could argue that if he continues to wrestle that the RPI etc. will determine his seed at Nationals giving him a better chance to win it all. My point is based on his matches so far he should not be ranked unless Polls are not based on performance but rather than what prognosticators believe he will finish.

Listen Pops......go eat your butterscotch pudding and enjoy todays bingo in the gameroom. It's 3;45 so its almost your dinner time.

Wrestle Jax now!!! Do not redshirt!!! This is the era of portal(i hate it but have no control), Unless a wrestler needs development, put your best lineup out there whenever you can!!