You may be right. Then again, making more shots might energize our D.
Also, I think Pike will have the guys going after it on D as usual, and with more talented depth he can crank up the defensive intensity while substituting more liberally.
Fall/Winter 2018?
- Thread starter zebnatto
- Start date
You may be right. Then again, making more shots might energize our D.
Also, I think Pike will have the guys going after it on D as usual, and with more talented depth he can crank up the defensive intensity while substituting more liberally.
Talked to a college coach today who said he doesn’t expect Rutgers to be better his year specifically because “no one is close to Sanders on that roster”. Says he expects we will be pressed all season and struggle to manufacture points in the half court.
Sorry, but that coach doesn’t know or watch our team on a day in day out basis. If he did and is a good coach he wouldn’t say that.
As a team we will be better, IMO, but the schedule being tougher might mean we have a similar record to last year.
Defensively how do we expect this team to be? All that length is going to be good for harassing shots, clogging passing lanes, tips deflections, rebounding...
Good point here but I see us having more shooters on the court. It was so predictable to try to stop Corey especially on a team that struggled shooting so much. Sanders Freeman and Williams all shot terrible percentages. 20's from 3. I expect Kiss Mathis Harper and McConnell to all shoot significantly better as well as Baker Eugene Thiam all improving as well
I agree...especially possessions 1 thru 64. The last 3 possessions of the game worry me with a young team.
He clearly doesn't grasp just how bad our offense was last season.
We’ve said the same thing after losing our best player a few times over the last ten years and that has never once been true.
Because we have so many new faces, and the schedule is a bear, I have zero expectations on win #'s going into this season. I'm confident this team will play their asses off, be competitive in most games, and have some stumbles along the way. I'm going to enjoy the ride.
2019-20 and beyond is where I expect to see more wins than we're accustomed to.
2019-20 and beyond is where I expect to see more wins than we're accustomed to.
He didnt watch all 2100 offensive possessions....and I'll bet the 2 players on his team who had the ball the most weren't terrible outside shooters.
You beat the press with passing. We have more decent to good passers on the team this season than last, all of whom are 6'4" and up and can see passing lanes. I have no concern about Baker/Kiss/McConnell against a press.
The half court will be interesting, but again, with more guys that can pass and shoot you can install an actual system and not rely on one guy.
I doubt the coach you spoke too watched enough Rutgers ro understand how inefficient Sanders and Freeman really were.
He watched enough. Can’t say I’m surprised people are going out of their way to discredit an opinion of a professional in the field. If you don’t agree with the assessment that’s fine. There is no issue acknowledging this person is more credentialed than most of us here but also understanding his opinion is still anecdotal until proven otherwise.
I personally agree that we will have issues stopping penetration at the guard position and issues scoring in the half court - by and large.
Unless this coach has had to play us I can't see how/why he'd know us inside and out. I have watched 90%+ of our 2100 offensive possessions from last year and I know the game. I'd think I am more qualified to assess our team than most D1 coaches outside our conference who weren't on our schedule.
A blanketed statement that we wont be as good because we have no one as good on the roster carries almost no water in my eyes. If he sat where we sat I'd be 100% confident we would be saying something different.
A blanketed statement that we wont be as good because we have no one as good on the roster carries almost no water in my eyes. If he sat where we sat I'd be 100% confident we would be saying something different.
We will have issues stopping penetration at the guard position for sure. We will have issues scoring in the half court. I agree 100% with both of these statements.
What sometimes gets lost is how bad we were offensively last year. Rutgers football bad. Almost inconceivable to me that we would get any worse.
"They lost their highest-usage guy, so they'll be worse" is such an easy talking point. MOST of the time it's true, because high-usage guys tend to be great relative to their competition. Corey wasn't. He got the usage he did out of necessity. It doesn't necessarily follow that a team will get worse with a player like that leaving.
Sa, Bullock, and Mensah were all zeroes offensively, and they're all gone. Doucoure was roughly as bad and his minutes look like they'll be cut. Freeman and Williams did things to help the team but they also combined to shoot under 20% on more than 100 three-point attempts. They're gone. In their place are players that, collectively, I think will make for a stronger team.
If you run last year's team back without Sanders then yes, of COURSE they'd be worse. But the math isn't "last year's team minus Sanders." It's last year's team minus Sanders and also minus six other guys who couldn't throw a beach ball in the ocean, then you ADD Kiss, Johnson, Carter, Harper, Mathis, and McConnell.
Sa, Bullock, and Mensah were all zeroes offensively, and they're all gone. Doucoure was roughly as bad and his minutes look like they'll be cut. Freeman and Williams did things to help the team but they also combined to shoot under 20% on more than 100 three-point attempts. They're gone. In their place are players that, collectively, I think will make for a stronger team.
If you run last year's team back without Sanders then yes, of COURSE they'd be worse. But the math isn't "last year's team minus Sanders." It's last year's team minus Sanders and also minus six other guys who couldn't throw a beach ball in the ocean, then you ADD Kiss, Johnson, Carter, Harper, Mathis, and McConnell.
Maybe stop being so defensive, both with this and your dumb "industry standard" recruiting argument. All I said was that he likely didn't watch enough to realize how inefficient our two highest usage players were. I never said I know more about basketball than the guy.
Further, I seriously doubt he knows much about the 6 new guys we have eligible to play this year. That does not mean I'm impugning him, it means college basketball coaches are busy and I doubt he obsesses over the Rutgers roster like we do.
Corey Sanders is a huge loss. We will be worse at the top spot on the roster. I would argue that at spots 2-11 we will be improved. We'll have better depth and less drop-off.
You are free to disagree, as I'm sure you do as you seem determined to convince everyone that this team will suck and that our new players aren't up to par.
None of this matters. Game 3 against St. John's will let us know... they're a high major team with a backcourt that causes a ton of turnovers, may have the Big East player of the year and added an all-SEC wing. Let's see how we do then.
I'm sorry I don't care how young this team is, they will shoot better than our 2 seniors and 1 junior we lost last year. They shot for the year 412/1031 40% and 43/204 21% from 3 and only 4 3s in 9 road games (4/50 8%), so 39/154 25% @home and MSG. Candido Sa hit his only 2 3s on the road last year @PSU and @MSU. He shot 26/60 43% and 2/5 40% for the year. I'll miss him more than the low IQ "shooters" we don't have anymore.
Geo had 53 3s on 147 and Issa had 44 3s on 121 last year 36% for each
22/73 30% on the road. I'll take Pike's youth over what we lost.
Geo had 53 3s on 147 and Issa had 44 3s on 121 last year 36% for each
22/73 30% on the road. I'll take Pike's youth over what we lost.
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I think most people SIGNIFICANTLY underestimate chemistry and intangibles.
Look at Quincy Douby as an example. Yes he was a year older going from a sophomore to a junior, but there was one major difference between the two teams.
Look at Quincy Douby as an example. Yes he was a year older going from a sophomore to a junior, but there was one major difference between the two teams.
We were forced to play three players last year who had no business playing B1G basketball for 255 minutes in conference games. That is almost 15 mpg in league with players who could not compete at this level.
I do think we miss Corey this season as I believe he had a very good year as a Junior. However, I also think the upgrade in talent from players 7-11 is significant.
I do think we miss Corey this season as I believe he had a very good year as a Junior. However, I also think the upgrade in talent from players 7-11 is significant.
I agree with point about guard penetration: I think we’ll play more zone given the penetration issue plus length which, with certain lineups, esp. if Harper can get in rotation, will be a strength.
I’m expecting, maybe just hoping for, some zone (interesting to see what zone and rotations Pike comes up with). Not sure all are ready but Geo, Caleb, Issa, Ron, Myles get a lot of deflections and should be able to trap.
Yes, he almost single-handedly won 6 games for us last year, but the thing overlooked about Corey is how bad he played in a bunch of our losses. He was either hot or cold, with only a few games in between.
I'd like to think that Corey's high-volume replacement on the court -- basically Baker -- will be more consistent and less erratic from game to game, thereby smoothing out the peaks and valleys. As well, Baker's replacement on the court -- Kiss -- will likely be way more consistent than Baker was as a freshman last year (remember that Baker had a lot of awful shooting games). And as many people stated above, the bench this year will be markedly more talented, albeit inexperienced.
There's obviously no right "answer" to our questions, but it will certainly be interesting to see the team develop.
I'd like to think that Corey's high-volume replacement on the court -- basically Baker -- will be more consistent and less erratic from game to game, thereby smoothing out the peaks and valleys. As well, Baker's replacement on the court -- Kiss -- will likely be way more consistent than Baker was as a freshman last year (remember that Baker had a lot of awful shooting games). And as many people stated above, the bench this year will be markedly more talented, albeit inexperienced.
There's obviously no right "answer" to our questions, but it will certainly be interesting to see the team develop.
I've read above where people have the expectations that our newcomers shoot 3's better than the players that departed. It's just that.....expectations. After reading how Mike Williams was going to be a fantastic 3point shooter because he was in HS, leads me to temper expectations. Until you see it done at this level, you really can't be sure that it can be done.
Recruits at the level of out incoming class, most of whom were nlknown as shooters, rarely shoot as poorly as Mike William's did. He was an aberration in his transition from high school to college.
Also, completely anecdotal, but Geo picked Carson Edward's clean at the top of the key in the Bug Ten tourney and had some luck other successes guarding perimeter guys. You can make up for lack of quickness with length and angles.
I think he'll be fine
Also, completely anecdotal, but Geo picked Carson Edward's clean at the top of the key in the Bug Ten tourney and had some luck other successes guarding perimeter guys. You can make up for lack of quickness with length and angles.
I think he'll be fine
It's actually almost statistically impossible for a group of three D1 basketball teammates to combine to shoot 20.9% on 200+ attempts in a season as Sanders, Williams, and Freeman combined to do (42-201). I'm serious.
Maryland Eastern Shore was the worst three-pointing team in the country. Their worst three players, on 198 attempts, shot 21.2%.
California actually shot worse on three-pointers than we did as a team -- I expected us to be dead last among high majors -- but they didn't have a trio shoot as poorly as our three. Issa and Geo saved us from being historically awful.
I've spent some actual time looking for any team that had teammates combine to shoot as poorly on as many attempts as our three did for us last season and came up empty. I'm talking the worst SWAC teams, the worst MEAC teams, NOBODY had guys shoot that poorly. When players shoot that poorly they either get told to stop trying or they get benched. Our guys happened to do enough other things to stay on the court (Williams actually led our team in 2P%, on 113 attempts, aside from Doorson's 30 attempts and Bullock's 17).
I don't need to know anything about Peter Kiss, Caleb McConnell, and Montez Mathis other than that they're Division 1 basketball players and I will guarantee you if they combine for 200 three-point attempts they will shoot better than 20.9%.
I don't want to be a wet blanket, but as experience has shown, if there's a bottom, we can find it.
Kiss shot 27% at Quinnipiac as a freshman, so you'd hope he could improve on that.
For McConnell, Mathis and Harper, the jury is out.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/153/p2
We were actually dead last #351 last year, 4.3 3 pointers made/game.
So, yes you're probably right, can't get much worse.
Optimistically, doubling that number would be a huge boost.
Sad as it is, Kiss's 27% would be a not-insignificant improvement. I think there also reasons to be optimistic that it will be higher... Pikiell has mentioned it as a skill, and he didn't play serious basketball until 10th grade, and he had a year off to just get reps in. Thiam went from a 30% to a 38% shooter freshman to sophomore. If Kiss can pull off even 32% then I think that's a win.
Ideally we'll at least have the threat of outside shooting to help our floor spacing. As you mentioned, teams knew we weren't going to be putting up many shots, and not making them when we did, so they could very easily cheat inside and clog the lane.
Doubling that would make us 3rd in the league by last years statistics.
Purdue made 9.5; Michigan 8.8; MSU 8.3; Northwestern 8.0. 10th was OSU/Nebraska at 7.0.
Purdue hit at 42%; MSU 40%; PSU 39%; Iowa 37.5%. 10th was Minnesota/Nebraska at 34.6%
10 teams in the league hit 7.0 threes per game. 10 teams in the league hit them at a % of at least .346. I think those are both attainable goals that would help get us out of the basement.
By the way... when you look at league statistics from last year; particularly in conference statistics, the fact that we won 3 games, as well as 2 in the B1G tournament, and were so close in a bunch of others, is amazing.
The only thing that saves the team is hustle stats, which honestly is effort and team culture.
I agree with @Greene Rice FIG that it is hard to imagine our offense not improving.
The only thing that saves the team is hustle stats, which honestly is effort and team culture.
I agree with @Greene Rice FIG that it is hard to imagine our offense not improving.
It's very possible they could shoot 15% better than 20%
Kiss - Pike said best shooter on the team
Mathis - stroke looks much improved compared to HS clips. Draining threes in some videos of practice so far and other quotes about his shot
Harper - known as a 3 point assassin
McConnell - looks to have a good shot. No reason he can't shoot better than 20% considering he is a D1 guard