Falzon

[NJCat83588]

Aaron was named New England Prep AAA Player of the Year. He averaged 17.9 points and 6.3 boards for the Hoggers. Joining him on the first team are kids who committed to Arizona, UConn, Louisville and Syracuse. The players headed for Arizona, UConn and Louisville all play on the same team, and they went 31-1. Their only loss? To Aaron's Northfield Mount Herman, a game in which Falzon scored 30.

I think he is going to contribute nicely next year. He seems be playing with the big boys and excelling.

 

[CSCatFan1]

The future looks bright...thanks for sharing this info.

 

[Turk_rivals223269]

Well, I hear ya NJcat, but whose minutes is he going to take? The transfer will get a lot of minutes. Law looks the part now. Lumpkin is playing fairly good. Taphorn has been on a continual improvement.

I know what you are saying, but in saying it, it isn't as easy to say such things as it was for all of us about the fab 5 playing this year. I mean last year, we were all almost certain at least two freshmen would be starters. In a good way, it's tough for me to conclude things about next year. One thing is for sure, if Falzon starts or gets a lot of minutes, it will be because he came in with a lot of confidence. He looks great in High School but we often have players struggle early with confidence trying to see if they belong in the new pond. And, with a NCAA berth on the line next year, I can't see Collins playing any player that is not ready, during our OOC games. We will have the ability to at least redshirt Pardon, think about redshirting Ash.

The real monkey wrench in this is who is that current player who told Collins he will not be coming back? If it is Vasser then Ash will have to play. If it is Taphorn or Lumpkin then insert Falzon for sure.

 

[NJCat83588]

Sad to say it, but Tap and Sanjay are going to get limited minutes if everyone is healthy. Falzon is going to deserve serious minutes. He may not start, but he'll be first off the bench. Probably pencil him in for 15 a game, Law with 20 and Sanjay/Tap getting the rest. Unless of course Collins subscribes to the Fitzgerald seniority system, and I strongly doubt he does!

I think Sanjay actually continues to rotate at the 4 with Dutch Baby, Pardon and Skelly. NU will have 4 legitimate scoring threats on the floor at all times next season: BMac, Olah, Demps, Ash, Falzon, and Law. Nice!

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Think Turk is more right than the rest. Absent injury, I think Tap begins the year as the stretch 4 and first off the bench at the 4. I would expect CCC to demand Falzon clearly beat out Tap for that role and challenge vZ for some of his minutes. And if so, bless his heart.

But Law was anointed the next great and we have seen that the transition to B1G ball and the world of the best of HS now delveloped into men in their 20s doesn't necessarily translate well for a good teen prospect.

More to the point, Falzon still does not project to one and done talent. Are we even projecting future NBA? Let's give the kid a year to come in and get in the system, and if we see him on the floor, better be big minutes and bigger WOW factor. IMHO

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Re potential transfer -

More I think about this: I gotta go with an impatient Vasser and a Demps looking to play for a contender (maybe even get noticed and a whiff of the league).

Say Carlos, what say you? Would Demps ever leave the program for a one year run somewhere else?

Haywood - you have been too quiet on this? You want to share a nugget?

 

[NJCat83588]

Originally posted by xyzbobxyz:

More to the point, Falzon still does not project to one and done talent. Are we even projecting future NBA? Let's give the kid a year to come in and get in the system, and if we see him on the floor, better be big minutes and bigger WOW factor. IMHO

Man, where'd you come up with THAT? Who said anything about one and done? I see him playing 15 minutes a game of the bench. It will be a long time before NU lands a one and done talent.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Then why are you kicking Tap and / or Skelly to the bench?

The problem w anointing the next freshmen as contributors is that it comes at someone else's expense.

You get 80 minutes at the 4/5, if no small lineup time. Can we agree sr Olah will command 30 (esp w no real 5 in backup)? Would you strongly disagree that vZ appears in line for 25, unless he proves unworthy?

That leaves 25 minutes. You allocate 15 to Falzon. So the last 10 - you got Skelly, Tap, Lump, Pardon - you thinking about 2.5 each? And running 7 man rotation just at the bigs?

Or are you pushing Lump to the wing? Running 6 deep in 1-3 and 6 deep for 4-5 in the most ridiculous 12 man rotation in the history of college bball?

You guys that are so intent in running Ash, Falzon and Pardon out there - at whose expense? NJ - alot the 200 minutes please. Show me where you got em playing.

(That's why I reference the one and done. The 5*s, the one and done, the world expects them to play and start as frosh. Apparently, at NU, 4* is the new 5* and automatically unseats anyone ahead of them of the depth by his resume alone...)

 

[DaCat]

Originally posted by xyzbobxyz:
Re potential transfer -

More I think about this: I gotta go with an impatient Vasser and a Demps looking to play for a contender (maybe even get noticed and a whiff of the league).

Say Carlos, what say you? Would Demps ever leave the program for a one year run somewhere else?

Haywood - you have been too quiet on this? You want to share a nugget?

I don't see Demps transferring. If he likes the coach and his teammates, and is playing an important role as he is with the Cats, there is no reason to risk it for a one-time shot at another program where nothing is guaranteed. Likewise, I hope Vasser sticks around and patiently develops his huge potential under Coach Collins. This kid has a high ceiling. I don't want him to pull a Edward McCants.

 

[ricko6543211]

You are being silly. Because people were being absolutist and anointing the incoming freshmen as all starters and the immediate solution for this year, and overstated their potential / immediate talent, you are overreacting and doing the exact opposite right now.

The main point to be made about Falzon and Ash's time next year is we don't know. The outcome for each individual freshman, both at the start of the year and over the course of the year has enormous variance. The class incoming this year is one example. But past years have plenty of additional examples. Sometimes players' talents are better than they appear once they get on campus, sometimes the opposite. For the upside case look at Coble and Juice Thompson. For base case Shurna - but then he rapidly developed after that. Seacat and Sean Wink were the opposite - showed lots of early potential but development was disappointing for one reason or another. For downside case Capocci, Ryan, and plenty of others.

The point is that you are impugning people for making suggestions on this point, as if the outcome is deterministic, when the outcome is probabilistic, with an extremely wide range of results. From a deterministic perspective, yes the rotation will likely be 9 core players. From a probabilistic perspective, it's entirely reasonable to assign expected values of minutes to each player, with 12 or 13 names there.

A few points before I provide numbers...
1) I think just as people overestimated the incoming freshmen last year, you guys are idealizing JvZ. Yes he's got a lot of talent, but he's got plenty of weaknesses too - namely any semblance of an outside shot. I have a hard time seeing someone who is a liability on one side of the floor playing 30 mins a game - think Lumpkin. Who knows how development will work out, but my guess is that he's a solid player but not one of the top 4, which is Olah Demps Mac Law.
2) I'm thinking Tap AND Falzon both warn a respectable number of minutes.
3) I think with the addition of JvZ Pardon will have mostly a growing and rebuilding year.
4) Ash I have the highest variance on - I could see him playing 25 mins and I could see him playing 0 mins.
5) I think CC saw Mac get a bit worn down this year, and will go a bit lighter on # of minutes for him next year.

If I had to pick a most likely rotation come midseason...
Mac 30
Demps 30
Olah 32
Law 28
JvZ 20
Lindsey 16
Falzon 12
Tap 12
Lumpkin 10
Skelly 5
Ash 5

Unfortunately that leaves Pardon and Vassar as the odd men out... a core rotation of 9 and Ash / Skelly getting spot minutes.

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

Originally posted by xyzbobxyz:
Say Carlos, what say you? Would Demps ever leave the program for a one year run somewhere else?

Demps will be playing for a contender at NU next season, and he'll be a major cog in the wheel.

 

[NJCat83588]

I don't want him to pull an Ed McCants, either. Because Ed got kicked off the team for getting arrested. I suspect Johhny is more mature than Ed was at the same point in their careers.

 

[DaCat]

Originally posted by NJCat:
I don't want him to pull an Ed McCants, either. Because Ed got kicked off the team for getting arrested. I suspect Johhny is more mature than Ed was at the same point in their careers.

Of course I meant this in the sense that Ed didn't pan out at NU but got his act together and had a pretty good college career.

 

[NJCat83588]

The difference being, the talent was evident for Ed at NU. Jury is out on Johnny given his limited playing time.

 

[Walker Fan]

Falzon is a stretch four who will open the driving lanes for Demps and McIntosh and maybe lessen the potential double teams on Olah next season. I like the transfer to backup Olah and the PF. He does not appear to be a seasoned shooter. The word is that Falzon is one of the top stretch four and shooters from the forward position coming out next year. I am not going to get too excited about a one-year transfer after experiencing many transfers whose hype do not live up to their game going back to Walker Lambiotte, Duke transfer Michael Thompson, etc.). There are exceptions to this rule like Uthoff. Maybe this kid will be different, but I would rather pin my hopes to a highly rated (top 100) freshman recruit who will be in the program for 4 years than a 5th year transfer. Based on Collins' sticking with Law as a starter as he went through some major ups and downs this, I think he might agree with that but Falzon still needs to prove it on the court. But that is my opinion.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Originally posted by Walker Fan:
Falzon is a stretch four who will open the driving lanes for Demps and McIntosh and maybe lessen the potential double teams on Olah next season. I like the transfer to backup Olah and the PF. He does not appear to be a seasoned shooter. The word is that Falzon is one of the top stretch four and shooters from the forward position coming out next year. I am not going to get too excited about a one-year transfer after experiencing many transfers whose hype do not live up to their game going back to Walker Lambiotte, Duke transfer Michael Thompson, etc.). There are exceptions to this rule like Uthoff. Maybe this kid will be different, but I would rather pin my hopes to a highly rated (top 100) freshman recruit who will be in the program for 4 years than a 5th year transfer. Based on Collins' sticking with Law as a starter as he went through some major ups and downs this, I think he might agree with that but Falzon still needs to prove it on the court. But that is my opinion.

The problem that I see with your analysis is that the staff had to say something to entice vZ to come here. I agree that he is not one of our top scoring threats - but I expect him to clean up the boards, protect the paint and offer size and experience. I would expect our staff all but promised the starting 4 is his to lose.

Tap is also a stretch 4 - he has no high school reputation of Falzon, but his outside shot commands respect and a growing frame suitable for the rigors of B1G play at the 4. The stretch 4 in our rotation has to clearly outplay vZ to take his starting role. That said, I can easily see a Boozer/Gibson scenario where vZ starts but the back up finishes and gets heavy minutes.

So, unless Tap is clearly beaten out in practice and Falzon becomes a top 5 player on the team, then I don't understand wasting eligibility AND insulting Tap by pulling his minutes. If Falzon is that top 5 guy or better - at any point in the season, then run him out there and thank Tap and show him his seat on the end.

 

[Walker Fan]

Good points. All of our discussion is premature because we have never seen VZ or Falzon play. As for Tap, I still view him as more of a three. Now if he continues to put on muscle and weight, we might become a 4. I think VZ was recruited by saying 1) you will be Olah's backup and 2) see some minutes at PF with an opportunity to start if you show it in practice and games. However, Falzon should be on the court a lot if his jump shot is as pure as it appears in the video clips because he will allow our playmakers - Demps, McIntosh and Olah more space to operate. Why not also consider Falzon taking some limited minutes at SF if he can shoot from deep. You can see that those shots have been there and Law has been making those three point shots recently while struggling mightily to hit them earlier in the season.

 

[Katatonic]

Falzon sounds as polished as BMac and Shurna coming in (and unlike Shurna, has more of a college-ready physique) - so chances are good that he will see a decent amount of time at the 4.

Of course, we really won't know until we get to see Falzon in action (or at least in practice), but the signs are positive.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

I just can't see vZ coming without a starting job. He believes he has a shot at the league. Whether right or wrong, it won't happeen as a sub.

Interesting thought on .Falzon at the three. Maybe against the trees of Purdue. Otherwise I would say too slow and too crowded (Law, Lindsey, Lump, Tap? then Falzon)

 

[Katatonic]

Originally posted by xyzbobxyz:

Originally posted by Walker Fan:
Falzon is a stretch four who will open the driving lanes for Demps and McIntosh and maybe lessen the potential double teams on Olah next season. I like the transfer to backup Olah and the PF. He does not appear to be a seasoned shooter. The word is that Falzon is one of the top stretch four and shooters from the forward position coming out next year. I am not going to get too excited about a one-year transfer after experiencing many transfers whose hype do not live up to their game going back to Walker Lambiotte, Duke transfer Michael Thompson, etc.). There are exceptions to this rule like Uthoff. Maybe this kid will be different, but I would rather pin my hopes to a highly rated (top 100) freshman recruit who will be in the program for 4 years than a 5th year transfer. Based on Collins' sticking with Law as a starter as he went through some major ups and downs this, I think he might agree with that but Falzon still needs to prove it on the court. But that is my opinion.

The problem that I see with your analysis is that the staff had to say something to entice vZ to come here. I agree that he is not one of our top scoring threats - but I expect him to clean up the boards, protect the paint and offer size and experience. I would expect our staff all but promised the starting 4 is his to lose.

Tap is also a stretch 4 - he has no high school reputation of Falzon, but his outside shot commands respect and a growing frame suitable for the rigors of B1G play at the 4. The stretch 4 in our rotation has to clearly outplay vZ to take his starting role. That said, I can easily see a Boozer/Gibson scenario where vZ starts but the back up finishes and gets heavy minutes.

So, unless Tap is clearly beaten out in practice and Falzon becomes a top 5 player on the team, then I don't understand wasting eligibility AND insulting Tap by pulling his minutes. If Falzon is that top 5 guy or better - at any point in the season, then run him out there and thank Tap and show him his seat on the end.

Except, I doubt CC & Co. promised JVZ anything.

Cleaning up the boards, working the paint, etc. is more what CC is looking for at the 5 than 4 spot.

Having said that, JVZ should also see time at the 4 when CC wants to go big and physical (when he is at the 5, can see CC going more uptempo and switching to man D); would have been helpful against Iowa having 2 bigs playing alongside each other.

What we likely won't see is JVZ playing late in games - where opponents can play hack-a-shack on JVZ (not going to count on him greatly improving his FT shooting).

 

[NJCat83588]

I foresee Fazon getting more minutes at the 3 than Tap or Sanjay, simply because he is a scorer and Collins bemoans the Cats inability to score the ball.Lindsey is more of a 2 guard. Unless Brian James is completely blowing smoke, Falzon can shoot like no one else on the team.

 

[Katatonic]

If Falzon is the real deal, would not be surprised to see him work up to 20-25 mins.

 

[7levery7]

The Cats need more reliable scoring options, so Falzon seems sure to get a good opportunity to play immediately.

 

[EvanstonCat]

You are absolutely nuts.

There is no way that JnZ is transferring to NU to be a backup. He was the best big on an ACC (though admittedly weak) team. He is capable of putting up double doubles. He delivers what no one short of Olah can deliver on this roster which is an inside presence and defensive capability on the bigs. He is a 5th year center with a man's body, and suggesting Falzon will pass him is ridiculous. Oh, and Lambiotte was All-B1G so I don't know what you are talking about.

I would be wary of transfers who come to NU because they couldn't get time at their old school. So, pointing to kids like Michael Thompson and Bernard Cote (and even Jared Swopshire) is totally irrelevant here. That is not the case with JvZ. He was their best big, and leading rebounder, and best post defender. He's got 4 years playing in the ACC. He can't shoot outside of 5 feet, and will be Shaq-like for us at the line, but that's not what we need him for. He is a critical and missing piece for the team in our weakest area - boards and post defense. His impact will be very big for us.

He is going to get 25 minutes a game, starting at PF and spelling Olah at the 5, but his main minutes will come at the 4. As for Falzon, he probably will contribute, but I don't see him starting. Those kids going to Louisville, Arizona, UConn on the New England All-Prep team are most likely not going to start either. As it stands, I think you'll see Sanjay as the guy who suffers the most from the infusion of size and talent. He got minutes at the 4 because of his defense, but he was way undersized and played only because we did not have anyone else on the roster who could play in the post - he couldn't naturally either, but at least he was a physical defender. Compare him to JvZ and it's not a question who you play against the other team's PF. Law moves back to his natural 3 position, as will Sanjay. Sanjay will continue to get some minutes as a defensive stopper, but you generally like your 3 to be an offensive threat as well, which is his weakness. The real question for Falzon is whether and how many minutes he steals from a 3rd year Taphorn. If Falzon is physically ready, then perhaps he will be a serious contributor. If not, you probably go with a Taphorn who has reshaped his body with 3 years of college weightlifting and a Skelly who is going to be another year bigger as well.

BTW, Law started because we continued to have a serious hole at the 4. He was not a world beater this year, and on most NCAA caliber teams, he comes off the bench. He's a sophomore next year, and at his natural position, he will be much closer to an NCAA caliber starter. But, unlike the previous two years due to a completely defective roster at the 4, we do not need him or Sanjay to play at there next year. At all.

 

[backdoorpass]

Originally posted by xyzbobxyz:

So, unless Tap is clearly beaten out in practice and Falzon becomes a top 5 player on the team, then I don't understand wasting eligibility AND insulting Tap by pulling his minutes. If Falzon is that top 5 guy or better - at any point in the season, then run him out there and thank Tap and show him his seat on the end.

You're talking about redshirting again, aren't you?

You just don't get it.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Disagree. You don't get it. Vasser like minutes does not provide meaningful experience. If and when the game arrives that CCC can play him at least 10 AND plans to do so with some regularity, then play him. Until that day, he sits on game days, works hard in practice and the weight room and stays ready.

If at year end, that day never arrived, then it's called a redshirt and that is ok IMHO.

You just want run him out for 10 minutes over the season if he can't earn more time and I think that's a waste. If he plays, he plays a lot because he EARNED it at the college level in practice.

 

[JournCat]

No one knows until they actually play together, but JVZ and Olah in the starting lineup could kill our spacing on offense. Olah would have less room in the lane because JVZ's defender wouldn't have to respect his shooting. He is an OK passer, so maybe he could punish double-teams by getting the ball quickly to JVZ or out to one of the three shooters on the floor. But I would consider it far from guaranteed that both big men start, especially since Collins wants to play fast. I could see us trying to emulate the Noah-Gibson defensive front line the Bulls throw out at the end of games.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Except Olah is double and triple covered in the paint already. Olah can step out, vZ can cut and dunk, then their is the double post option. And vZ would seem to be a single post option as well.

I also think other posters are right that vZ won't close out many games as a free throw liability.

 

[Sec_112]

More reliable scoring option

Originally posted by 7levery7:
The Cats need more reliable scoring options, so Falzon seems sure to get a good opportunity to play immediately.

I'll even simplify this even more. I think the Cats still need more outside shooting. From "the reports," sounds like this is part of Falzon's game. If that one thing translates to his college game, he'll get strong minutes.

But then again, we've heard reports of past incoming players who were strong shooters, and weren't even close.So talk to me in November.

 

[Katatonic]

Big diff. is that Swop could shoot the ball.

And Swop's soph stats were similar if not better than JVZ's as a RS soph.

Swop
25 mins
7.5 ppg
6.1 rpg

JVZ
22 mins
6.4 ppg
5.0 rpg

JVZ is clearly the better shot blocker but Swop was clearly the better FT shooter.

Also, Swop saw reduced playing time for a national title contender as he was recruited over.

JVZ was losing playing time on a bad VT team.

So, if I were to say that Swop will still be the best overall transfer since Lambiotte, it wouldn't be a bad bet.