FC/OT: CFP BUBBLE WATCH!!!
- Thread starter Midnighter
- Start date
Pay attention to anything Ari Wasserman says at your own risk. Dude is the biggest blowhard in CFB that is unfortunately given a vocal platform. He brings down a good writer/talk show guy like Andy Staples with his presence.
Why would Clemson be in the first 4 out after being destroyed by Georgia 34-3? Or ND after losing to NIL?
That said I agree that PSU is on the bubble. A 10th ranked team isn't going to make it because of the automatic bids.
Ask yourself these questions: “If PSU wasn’t shown under the first four out, would I have posted this here? How does it make me feel that PSU is shown among the first four out?”
The CFP format is bullsh!t (or not particularly well thought out, but what do we expect from a group of mouth-breathers). They should re-seed based on the final rankings after first round games are played.
Memphis making the early case to by the G5 playoff rep. UNLV is my dark horse.
More drama than competing Real Housewives television shows.
It's Sept 16th. Everyone chill the eff out.
It's Sept 16th. Everyone chill the eff out.
Ask yourself these questions: “If PSU wasn’t shown under the first four out, would I have posted this here? How does it make me feel that PSU is shown among the first four out?”
Is that your first thought after seeing the SEC take 50% of available slots in this scenario?
5 games go to conference winners. That leaves 7 at large.
Minimum 3 more from the SEC
Minimum 2 more from BiG
ND
That leaves 1. It could be another team from the BiG but that seems far from guaranteed. What if the ACC gets Miami + 1 loss Louisville? What if the Big 12 gets Utah + another 1 loss team? What if Liberty finished undefeated in CUSA or if there's a 1 loss team in the AAC or Pac 12?
Assume PSU finishes 10-2 with losses to USC and OSU. There won't be any signature wins. Who is to say that's better than an undefeated MAC team like NIL who beat ND?
My opinion is that 9-3 won't do it. We have to finish in the top 8 or 9 to qualify. I'm rooting against Oregon & USC because they are our biggest competition. I'm also hoping that somebody else can knock off ND.
Minimum 3 more from the SEC
Minimum 2 more from BiG
ND
That leaves 1. It could be another team from the BiG but that seems far from guaranteed. What if the ACC gets Miami + 1 loss Louisville? What if the Big 12 gets Utah + another 1 loss team? What if Liberty finished undefeated in CUSA or if there's a 1 loss team in the AAC or Pac 12?
Assume PSU finishes 10-2 with losses to USC and OSU. There won't be any signature wins. Who is to say that's better than an undefeated MAC team like NIL who beat ND?
My opinion is that 9-3 won't do it. We have to finish in the top 8 or 9 to qualify. I'm rooting against Oregon & USC because they are our biggest competition. I'm also hoping that somebody else can knock off ND.
Midnighter while searching for and then posting this ...
Hoping he'll get this reaction ...
My first thought was “we’ve only played 2 games and most of the top-ranked teams have played pure cupcakes.” A long way to go before I can get vested in these types of predictions.
I don’t disagree - but narratives are important and this kind of stuff adds to it. Now, winning solves everything (well, not for FSU), but these things usually come down to perception and how well teams perform relative to established narratives. USC game is really becoming key to the CFP IMO.
Breaking news after 3 games this season:
That's a good thing to start a debate and generate clicks. But a Week #3 bubble watch isn't going to get me hot and bothered.
Tgar rather enjoys these efforts to generate discussion. Apparently Ari has succeeded.
Has anyone run the best case and most probable outcomes given the schedules of the top four B1G programs? Right now I would say those are OSU, USC, PSU, and Oregon. USC seems to have the easiest path to the B1G Championship - they only play Penn State (they get ND in non-conference too, but thinking about the B1G Championship here). Next easiest is probably Oregon - they only play OSU. PSU plays OSU and USC. Which two are most likely to get to the Championship game and what do likely records look like? Which teams are in the CFP and which are out? I think the B1G gets three in; if PSU loses to OSU and USC I think we're out. Oregon only has one tough game, and OSU has two but will be favored in both. If USC beats Michigan and PSU they're likely in the B1G Championship.
Has anyone run the best case and most probable outcomes given the schedules of the top four B1G programs? Right now I would say those are OSU, USC, PSU, and Oregon. USC seems to have the easiest path to the B1G Championship - they only play Penn State (they get ND in non-conference too, but thinking about the B1G Championship here). Next easiest is probably Oregon - they only play OSU. PSU plays OSU and USC. Which two are most likely to get to the Championship game and what do likely records look like? Which teams are in the CFP and which are out? I think the B1G gets three in; if PSU loses to OSU and USC I think we're out. Oregon only has one tough game, and OSU has two but will be favored in both. If USC beats Michigan and PSU they're likely in the B1G Championship.
KENT. STATE.
KENT. STATE. KENT. STATE. KENT. STATE. KENT. STATE.
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