Finally

[CappyNU]

Fair points, though Torvik stats indicate our D is much worse than our O. Is there data on how much faster we play? I think it explains a bit but our D is still the problem. Makes sense to me we struggle late in games with a young team and without an alpha.

First thing is that so far offensive efficiency across D1 is at its highest level in at least the last 30 years. Prior to the pandemic, the average efficiency ranged from 1.00 PPP in 1998-99 to 1.05 PPP in 2013-14. Starting from the 2021-22 season, it has gone 1.03, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, and now this season it is at 1.10. It will likely drop as the season progresses, but will still probably be the highest ever. Lots of reasons for the increase, but that's all to say that yes, we are giving up way more points than any other Collins team, but it's still not his worst defensive team.

By pure adjusted PPP, at 1.06 PPP this is the 2nd-worst NU defense in the last 30 years, just behind the 2007-08 season that probably should've gotten Carmody fired, but he signed the recruiting class headlined by Nick Freundt and some afterthought named John Shurna.

But by rank across D1, this isn't even Collins' worst D. The 2014-15 team was ranked 151st, and the 2019-20 team was ranked 150th. What do those teams have in common with this one? Playing freshmen lots of minutes. Interestingly, our issue on defense is not letting the other team shoot too well, it's that this is the worst defensive rebounding team since Carmody's last season. Our opponent's eFG% is the 5th-best of any Collins team, behind the 2016-17, 2018-19, 2015-16 and 2013-14 teams, and just ahead of the 2022-23 team.

As far as tempo, we're still well in the lower half of D1. While we are playing decently faster on offense - about 1-2 seconds faster on offense than the past few years - it's counterbalanced by having the longest defensive possession length in the country, which is about 1 second slower than the past few years.

 

[CappyNU]

Oh, KenPom agrees our defense is much worse than our O, and it’s still worse per possession than it’s been in the Collins era, but it’s not all that bad per possession overall, just subpar. Meanwhile, the strength of our team IS a relative strength by our standards, but still isn’t nearly good enough.

So yeah, my point isn’t that our defense is good because it isn’t. I’m more just articulating that one come around on the idea that our defense is non-disastrous and it’s at least as much of a problem that our supposedly offensively focused team doesn’t actually score all that well (mostly because we don’t shoot threes) as it is our offensively focused team is merely not very good defensively.

By pure shooting percentage, this is the best team Collins has ever had at shooting 2s - 55.1%. The problem is, as you mentioned, that's not good enough anymore. The next best Collins team at shooting 2s was the 2015-16 team, which shot 51.6% - good enough for 60th. This year, 55.1% is only 80th. Even our eFG% is the 3rd-best by numbers in the Collins era at 52.2%, just behind the 2023-24 (52.6%) and 2015-16 (52.5%) teams. The problem is that those past seasons were good for 76th and 57th respectively, and this year it's only 144th.

In 2023-24, we only shot 49.2% from 2, which was 227th in D1, but we had the most efficient offense in the Collins era because we made 39.0% of our 3s despite having slightly more turnovers, rebounding worse, and getting to the line less than this year.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Reid 100% fits the offense. He’s legitimately effective in the half court. He can get downhill, collapse the defense, and generate a lot of quality looks for teammates. The jumper has been respectable enough to space the floor, he moves the ball well, and he’s capable of creating his own shot when needed. He’s not just a connector, he can actually bend the defense.

I think Page plays much more like a 5 than a 4. At 6’11”, 245, he’s strong enough to finish through contact and draw fouls, and he’s got soft enough touch to score inside. He gets mislabeled as a 4 because he’s a modern big. He can pass, put the ball on the floor to attack closeouts, and knock down an occasional jumper. Defensively, from an athletic and tools standpoint, he fits at the 5. He’s a better shot blocker than he gets credit for when he’s in the right spots, he’s big and strong enough to wall up, and he’s mobile enough to be a solid help defender and stay in front of most opposing bigs.

The issue isn’t ability, it’s processing and feel. The positioning, reads, and timing just aren’t there yet. That stuff takes time, especially for bigs, and he still has another year and a full offseason to work through it.

The complaints shouldn’t really be about fit. The real issue is that these guys aren’t instant impact, upper-level Big Ten players. To get back to the tournament, NU needed two more guys at that level. There are plenty of reasons they weren’t able to land that in the portal and instead opted for more developmental pieces.

I know Page looks the part, but he’s not playing the part right now. Hopefully that can change. He needs a lot of work.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

By pure shooting percentage, this is the best team Collins has ever had at shooting 2s - 55.1%. The problem is, as you mentioned, that's not good enough anymore. The next best Collins team at shooting 2s was the 2015-16 team, which shot 51.6% - good enough for 60th. This year, 55.1% is only 80th. Even our eFG% is the 3rd-best by numbers in the Collins era at 52.2%, just behind the 2023-24 (52.6%) and 2015-16 (52.5%) teams. The problem is that those past seasons were good for 76th and 57th respectively, and this year it's only 144th.

In 2023-24, we only shot 49.2% from 2, which was 227th in D1, but we had the most efficient offense in the Collins era because we made 39.0% of our 3s despite having slightly more turnovers, rebounding worse, and getting to the line less than this year.

I’m looking at just pure points per possession, which tells a similar story: it’s the best offense CCC has had, but still not a particularly good offense. Your numbers pretty demonstrably prove the reality that the lack of three pointers is what’s holding the offense back. Bottom line it’s pretty tough to be a high scoring team when you don’t shoot threes well.

it is interesting how our perception of basketball is super skewed by us having been an extremely slow temp, very low scoring, extremely good defensive team throughout Collins’ tenure. Even the good years don’t have good offenses. Suddenly we get a team that’s closer to league average offensively and it feels like this high scoring team while below average defensively feels like a complete travesty. It’s an interesting dive into perceptions.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

By pure shooting percentage, this is the best team Collins has ever had at shooting 2s - 55.1%. The problem is, as you mentioned, that's not good enough anymore. The next best Collins team at shooting 2s was the 2015-16 team, which shot 51.6% - good enough for 60th. This year, 55.1% is only 80th. Even our eFG% is the 3rd-best by numbers in the Collins era at 52.2%, just behind the 2023-24 (52.6%) and 2015-16 (52.5%) teams. The problem is that those past seasons were good for 76th and 57th respectively, and this year it's only 144th.

In 2023-24, we only shot 49.2% from 2, which was 227th in D1, but we had the most efficient offense in the Collins era because we made 39.0% of our 3s despite having slightly more turnovers, rebounding worse, and getting to the line less than this year.

Cap nicely filling the PWB void.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Reid 100% fits the offense. He’s legitimately effective in the half court. He can get downhill, collapse the defense, and generate a lot of quality looks for teammates. The jumper has been respectable enough to space the floor, he moves the ball well, and he’s capable of creating his own shot when needed. He’s not just a connector, he can actually bend the defense.

I think Page plays much more like a 5 than a 4. At 6’11”, 245, he’s strong enough to finish through contact and draw fouls, and he’s got soft enough touch to score inside. He gets mislabeled as a 4 because he’s a modern big. He can pass, put the ball on the floor to attack closeouts, and knock down an occasional jumper. Defensively, from an athletic and tools standpoint, he fits at the 5. He’s a better shot blocker than he gets credit for when he’s in the right spots, he’s big and strong enough to wall up, and he’s mobile enough to be a solid help defender and stay in front of most opposing bigs.

The issue isn’t ability, it’s processing and feel. The positioning, reads, and timing just aren’t there yet. That stuff takes time, especially for bigs, and he still has another year and a full offseason to work through it.

The complaints shouldn’t really be about fit. The real issue is that these guys aren’t instant impact, upper-level Big Ten players. To get back to the tournament, NU needed two more guys at that level. There are plenty of reasons they weren’t able to land that in the portal and instead opted for more developmental pieces.

I am not sure about the “strong” part on AP. He doesn’t bully people like Pardon did and it seems like he hits the floor with very little contact. To me, he has a finesse game and I’d love to see him knock somebody down on both offense and defense a few times a game.

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

I am not sure about the “strong” part on AP. He doesn’t bully people like Pardon did and it seems like he hits the floor with very little contact. To me, he has a finesse game and I’d love to see him knock somebody down on both offense and defense a few times a game.

I mean against USC he had a powerful dunk attempt that got him to the line in the 1st half. He just utilizes his finesse game more but the strength is there. Also he’s not like overly strong… or at least hasn’t shown it but he is strong enough.

 

[hdhntr1]

I’m looking at just pure points per possession, which tells a similar story: it’s the best offense CCC has had, but still not a particularly good offense. Your numbers pretty demonstrably prove the reality that the lack of three pointers is what’s holding the offense back. Bottom line it’s pretty tough to be a high scoring team when you don’t shoot threes well.

it is interesting how our perception of basketball is super skewed by us having been an extremely slow temp, very low scoring, extremely good defensive team throughout Collins’ tenure. Even the good years don’t have good offenses. Suddenly we get a team that’s closer to league average offensively and it feels like this high scoring team while below average defensively feels like a complete travesty. It’s an interesting dive into perceptions.

For being as high rated as he was, reality is that prior to this year, he had not really had much game time. Got to think that at those previous stops he felt when he got in, he had to push his O. While we need our BIG to stay more towards the paint, clog up the middle and block out, he is often farther out

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Cap nicely filling the PWB void.

Except with stats that might actually mean something

 

[hdhntr1]

I mean against USC he had a powerful dunk attempt that got him to the line in the 1st half. He just utilizes his finesse game more but the strength is there. Also he’s not like overly strong… or at least hasn’t shown it but he is strong enough.

His game is more that of a small forward than that of a center. We are used to having a 7 ft 280 lb guy in the middle and he is listed at 6'9" 225.

 

[macarthur31]

Went to ESPN men's college basketball stats, and was able to find Opponent Offensive Rebounds Per game average for Northwestern

2026. 12.0
2025 9.8
2024 8.8
2023. 9.3
2022 8.5
2021. 8.8
2020 10.7
2019 9.0
2018. 8.7
2017 11.3


Unfortunately, I couldn't disaggregate for just B1G games, but I'll assume that the OReb allowed is greater, because when I go into kenpom you can disaggregate the OReb% by B1G games, and we consistently do worse in B1G than overall. (This seems logical given our non-con schedule is usually softer.)

So on average, opponents are getting 2.2 more chances at the hoop in '26 than last year (and likely 3-4 more chances in B1G play), and paired with how Northwestern doesn't have an elite offense to compensate... That's how you get to an 0-7 start (particularly with 3 of those games with 2 possession differentials).

Yes, we gave up alot of 2nd chances in 2017, but that team only allowed 33% 3FG (4th in B1G) and 45.4% on 2FG (4th in B1G), so opponents were less likely to cash in on them.

I anticipated the loss of Nicholson/Barnhizer was going to hurt our defense, but I didn't appreciate how much our defensive glasswork was going to fall off so much.

 

[CappyNU]

His game is more that of a small forward than that of a center. We are used to having a 7 ft 280 lb guy in the middle and he is listed at 6'9" 225.

Uh, Page is listed at 6'11" 245, did you confuse him with Singleton?

 

[Catreporter]

It's all about the lack of three point production on offense for this team. I remember a specific moment that symbolizes it from the Minnesota game. Up 7 and on a roll, Gelo missed a wide open look from the corner which the Gophers turned into a fast break hoop that triggered a decisive run for them. With better shooting from deep, we have 3-or-4 more wins, but it is what it is at this point unless Green can get it going. He could be the key to a better finish like Windham was last year.

 

[CappyNU]

Went to ESPN men's college basketball stats, and was able to find Opponent Offensive Rebounds Per game average for Northwestern

2026. 12.0
2025 9.8
2024 8.8
2023. 9.3
2022 8.5
2021. 8.8
2020 10.7
2019 9.0
2018. 8.7
2017 11.3


Unfortunately, I couldn't disaggregate for just B1G games, but I'll assume that the OReb allowed is greater, because when I go into kenpom you can disaggregate the OReb% by B1G games, and we consistently do worse in B1G than overall. (This seems logical given our non-con schedule is usually softer.)

So on average, opponents are getting 2.2 more chances at the hoop in '26 than last year (and likely 3-4 more chances in B1G play), and paired with how Northwestern doesn't have an elite offense to compensate... That's how you get to an 0-7 start (particularly with 3 of those games with 2 possession differentials).

Yes, we gave up alot of 2nd chances in 2017, but that team only allowed 33% 3FG (4th in B1G) and 45.4% on 2FG (4th in B1G), so opponents were less likely to cash in on them.

I anticipated the loss of Nicholson/Barnhizer was going to hurt our defense, but I didn't appreciate how much our defensive glasswork was going to fall off so much.

From nusports, conference games only:

2026. 10.7 so far
2025 10.2
2024 9.0
2023. 9.0
2022 9.0
2021. 9.1
2020 11.7
2019 9.0
2018. 9.5
2017 11.0
2016 8.9
2015 11.7
2014 11.3

 

[Hungry Jack]

Uh, Page is listed at 6'11" 245, did you confuse him with Singleton?

Thats Kropp at 6’9” 225

 

[hdhntr1]

Uh, Page is listed at 6'11" 245, did you confuse him with Singleton?

On 3 has a lot of garbage. a lot of areas I am not pleased with it and this seems just one more. He is listed at 6'9" 225 lbs on the roster tab for ON3. Went back and checked again to verify. I was surprised as I had thought he was 6'11" but there it was so that is what I put. Singleton is listed at 6"8" 215

 

[hdhntr1]

Thats Kropp at 6’9” 225

No. On the On3 roster tab he is listed at 6'7" 200

 

[hdhntr1]

It's all about the lack of three point production on offense for this team. I remember a specific moment that symbolizes it from the Minnesota game. Up 7 and on a roll, Gelo missed a wide open look from the corner which the Gophers turned into a fast break hoop that triggered a decisive run for them. With better shooting from deep, we have 3-or-4 more wins, but it is what it is at this point unless Green can get it going. He could be the key to a better finish like Windham was last year.

Two (or even one ) more 3 per game would make a huge difference. We are that close. Clayton at least takes the shots when he gets them. Unfortunately he is off. Not much but just enough. . Others don't even take the shots they have. If he hits a couple he will suddenly be everyone's favorite player. And shooting can be contagious so just hit a couple more and the whole dynamic of the games change

 

[Hungry Jack]

No. On the On3 roster tab he is listed at 6'7" 200

That is old data. The Espn rosters are more up-to-date with height and weights from the school roster. They actually have him at 6’9” 230.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Cap nicely filling the PWB void.

With much more credible conclusions.

 

[hdhntr1]

That is old data. The Espn rosters are more up-to-date with height and weights from the school roster. They actually have him at 6’9” 230.

Then On3 better get their s**t together. Too much bogus crap. Page has been playing at this level for three years and when was the data from that showed him as 6'9"? And we pay for it,

 

[Hungry Jack]

Then On3 better get their s**t together. Too much bogus crap. Page has been playing at this level for three years and when was the data from that showed him as 6'9"? And we pay for it,

NU sports is free

 

[hdhntr1]

NU sports is free

The whole point is that they all linked together from one site, When it was Rivals info was relatively accurate, Since it went to On3 , it isn't. from schedules to game and season data to now rosters all kind of errors And having to go to multiple sites to get info... Not a fan of the merger

 

[No Chores]

The whole point is that they all linked together from one site, When it was Rivals info was relatively accurate, Since it went to On3 , it isn't. from schedules to game and season data to now rosters all kind of errors And having to go to multiple sites to get info... Not a fan of the merger

Definitely agree. However, look no further than Styre, who gives us accurate info regarding Big Ten basketball schedule every week, including t.v. channels and announcers.

 

[hdhntr1]

Definitely agree. However, look no further than Styre, who gives us accurate info regarding Big Ten basketball schedule every week, including t.v. channels and announcers.

Again, having to go to multiple sites. Good that accurate info is available somewhere,

I have seen this kind of thing in a number of takeovers. A better product is eliminated in the process of the merger and the customer is the last to be considered.

An example is Big Charts bought out by Market Watch. Big charts had great charts but those disappeared and the market watch charts are difficult to deal with and garbage. Cannot really use them for anything