According to the Tribune newspaper story, football participation at the high school level has dropped 25 percent in 13 years 2007-2009).
I will accept that statistic as fact. But sometimes a fact is not the whole truth. For starters, there are fewer schools playing football in Illinois now meaning a school that had low numbers in 2007 might have 0 players in 2019 meaning perhaps kids who want to play can’t. There is also the coop factor where let’s just say for hypothetical example that 3 schools now Combine for one team. That is reducing the number of playing opportunities for kids and maybe fringe-type players might take a pass on a 45 player roster who would go out in a 20 player roster.
Or maybe not. I don’t know.
A number to look at would be comparing the number of football players from 2007 to 2019 at schools that offered the sport in both years.
Also what is the total enrollment for the schools playing football in both 2007 and 2099. Are enrollments down 1 percent or 5 or 20? I have no idea but I have read stories that Illinois population is cratering.
In any case I think we need more than the 2097 vs. 2019 total player numbers to enable us to have a better picture.
Which is a long-winded way of getting to my question.
That is, what correlation if any is there between a school’s winning success on the gridiron and the number of kids in the school who play the sport.
Hypothetical situation: Team A is a perennial playoff team with 2 second-Place finishes at state and six straight playoff appearances. How are that program’s player numbers in 2019 compared to 2007?
Hypothetical situation: Team B is a perennial doormat currently in the midst of a 28-game losing streak at the varsity level in which 22 of the 28 were running-clock games. How are that program’s numbers in 2019 vs. 2007?
I don’t have the answer. But I am suggesting that perhaps a disproportionate percentage of the drop in football participation is coming from schools that are mediocre in the sport.
Conversely, the schools that are excelling in the sport are thriving in total player numbers as well. That to me would say a lot about the sport at the prep level.
I never took a snap at any level of tackle football but I can see from watching that it is a very hard sport and that putting forth 110 percent for your team and still getting 40-pointed each week could kill interest.
Anyway, if someone has seen a study of prep football participation in Illinois that used numbers besides the ‘25 percent drop’’ number with no additional breakdown I think many people here would enjoy reading it.