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Football season is here!

W

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
I say that because last night I picked up my 2016 Phil Steele College Football Preview. For me, that always marks the opening of the season. :cool2:

While you guys rush out to buy yours here are some top level notes about the Cats...

> Cats are #74 in his initial Power Poll rankings
> Projected SOS is #43
> Projected 5th in SECE (ahead of SC and Vandy)
> Unit Rankings:
QB: N/R in top 50
RB: #36
WR/TE: #30
OL: #43
DL: N/R in top 46
LB: N/R in top 48
DB: #43
ST: N/R in top 50​
> Plus/Minus ratings adjusted for home field (i.e., early probable spreads round to nearest whole point; favs in bold)
USM: UK -9
@FL: UK +11
NMSt: UK -32
SC: UK -5
@AL: UK +23
Vandy UK -5
MSU: UK +2
@MO: UK +6
GA: UK +5
@TN: UK +19
A/P Not Rated
@UofL: UK +12​
> Phil says: I have them favored in 5 games this year so they are just 1 upset away from getting back to the post season for the first time since 2010.


And I saved the best for last...

2016 Bowl Projections: UK vs WVA in Liberty Bowl

Peace
 
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BigBoyBlueMMA

Senior
Jul 14, 2013
849
479
63
Lawd I'll take Memphis for my new years events!
 
Deeeefense

Deeeefense

Heisman
Staff member
Aug 22, 2001
44,045
50,929
113
I"m pissed - I always order mine on line a month in advance and get it before the newsstands get theirs, and mine isn't here yet.

At first blush I would say he has our D-line a little over rated, and DBs under rated and I really don't see being a 6 point dog to Missouri, but maybe they are better then they look on paper with a new coach. OTOH just a 5 point dog to the Dawgs at home is encouraging.
 
T

tntuk

Heisman
Jan 17, 2002
11,497
10,966
113
StubbornPenny said:
I haven't really followed MSU... Are they in a big down season?
Click to expand...
Well - they did lose Dak Prescott. That's a big loss. Plus we get them at home.

I think we have a really good shot against them and think we will beat Mizzou at Mizzou. They will have a good defense, but their O is going to be pretty weak.
 
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oboroCATfan

All-Conference
Sep 17, 2003
4,229
1,768
0
I think we are going to struggle at times defensively but when you look at who we play we might catch a few breaks. MSU, Vandy, Mizzou, and SC all look like they are going to have some offensive issues. If we can have the offensive firepower that it feels like we should then we might be able to win all of those games.
 
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Oldtrainer_rivals

All-Conference
Aug 12, 2008
3,594
1,198
0
I also think we win six!
I'm a little under optimistic with the Missouri and MSU game. Missouri is away and they should be good as ever on defense. MSU has bullied us in the trenches both side of the ball for several years. On positive side we get them in CWS without Dak!
 
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W

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
Deeeefense said:
I"m pissed - I always order mine on line a month in advance and get it before the newsstands get theirs, and mine isn't here yet.

At first blush I would say he has our D-line a little over rated, and DBs under rated and I really don't see being a 6 point dog to Missouri, but maybe they are better then they look on paper with a new coach. OTOH just a 5 point dog to the Dawgs at home is encouraging.
Click to expand...
Hah! I was so bored this year I almost went the on line route but now glad I decided not to do so.

I felt the same way about the Mizzou and GA numbers. He is apparently giving the Tigers a bit more cred than other pre-season analysts. He has GA ranked #29 in his Power Poll and projects them at a #23 end of year finish; down by UGA standards.

I'm not sure what you mean by "D-line a little over rated"; he rates 46 DLs and the Cats are not in that group.

Regarding the secondary, I really have no idea what metrics go into his "unit ratings" but I suspect they are heavily influenced by returnees and last year's performance. While the Cats return a lot from the 2015 secondary, that secondary finished #63 in his pass defense ratings (and he did acknowledge last year's youth at these positions). So, in that sense, the #43 unit ranking this year does represent significant improvement.

Peace
 
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anon_7tbtqcx308nxh

All-Conference
Jan 15, 2013
3,634
1,846
0
With Mizzou +2 and on the road that's essentially a pick-em. Thanks for sharing as I've been curious what Steele thought.
 
W

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
GusVanRan said:
With Mizzou +2 and on the road that's essentially a pick-em. Thanks for sharing as I've been curious what Steele thought.
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Gus, I think you read something incorrectly or perhaps typed something wrong. UK is a 2 point 'dawg to Mississippi State (MSU) at home and a 6 point 'dawg to MO (Mizzou) on the road by these early numbers. And remember these are not his "best" numbers, however, in my experience, he is often uncannily accurate on these early "pseudo lines".

Peace
 
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Jdhays21

Jdhays21

Heisman
Jan 16, 2013
16,084
22,658
108
I was listening to Phil speak the other day and he singled out Missouri as team he thinks wills make major improvements this year. He believes in Lock and likes what they have coming back.... I disagree.
 
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W

WildCard

All-American
May 29, 2001
65,040
7,390
0
vhcat70 said:
In general, I think we're 4 points better than those lines.
Click to expand...
You're gonna be RICH! [roll]

Lets remember that these are not "real" lines. For example, the early line for UofL is UK +16.5 but Phil sees it closer to 12.

Jdhays21 said:
I was listening to Phil speak the other day and he singled out Missouri as team he thinks wills make major improvements this year. He believes in Lock and likes what they have coming back.... I disagree.
Click to expand...
Well, he does put them in his "15 Most Improved" teams. He does like Lock as a potential top QB and thinks Odum's bump up from DC to HC will be less of a transition issue than normally seen with a new HC. They do return 8 starters off a defense that was #6 nationally in yards allowed (302 YPG)and #5 nationally in scoring defense at 16.2 PPG. I had no idea Mizzou was that strong on defense last year and now better understand this "line".

Peace
 
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bigbluewildcat84

Senior
Apr 6, 2010
1,092
457
0
I think Mizzu, USC are our SEC wins. Florida would be the dark horse upset. I dont have any tangable stats or info to back up The guess other than a gut feeling.
 
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jauk11

Heisman
Dec 6, 2006
60,631
18,638
0
Did Locke do that much last year? I think BECAUSE of the improved team around him Barker will improve a lot, and if he does improve a lot himself (new QB coach?) then he could improve a lot in the stats------which he HAS to do.

Pretty fair to UK overall, a little low in some places IMO, DBs especially.

So, Transfer U should beat us worse than everyone but Bama and TU? I don't think so.
 
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loose rhythm

Freshman
Jun 19, 2011
258
74
0
I like this team on paper. Unlike the past two, see us getting better as the season goes on . Defense is a concern (specifically in the trenches and linebackers). But I think we can score, and score a lot.

I expect big things on offense
 
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jauk11

Heisman
Dec 6, 2006
60,631
18,638
0
Made my first bet of the year today, UK -7 over Southern Miss. Couldn't find the over under to bet, it opened at 5 wins I believe. I hate to tie up money this early, but I like the odds now.
 
B

Beatle Bum

Heisman
Sep 1, 2002
39,889
60,242
113
Deeeefense said:
I"m pissed - I always order mine on line a month in advance and get it before the newsstands get theirs, and mine isn't here yet.

At first blush I would say he has our D-line a little over rated, and DBs under rated and I really don't see being a 6 point dog to Missouri, but maybe they are better then they look on paper with a new coach. OTOH just a 5 point dog to the Dawgs at home is encouraging.
Click to expand...

Steele loves the Tigers defense.
 
C

CardChipper

Sophomore
Sep 27, 2002
1,317
164
0
Brooks turned the corner to 8-5 his fourth year. It may be a hunch, but I think you guys have a good year. Good luck.
 
80 Proof

80 Proof

Heisman
Jan 3, 2003
64,647
51,404
113
I feel like Mizzou is going to be really bad this year, and we'll knock off msu at home.

If our DL plays worth a wet fart we might knock off UF or UGA.

I think we go 7-5 in the regular season.
 
S

slam212121

All-Conference
Nov 25, 2014
4,666
2,829
0
If a team we play is having a down year, then that's a must-win game.

In order to truly turn the corner, UK needs quality wins against quality teams. TENN and UGA are those types of teams.

A win against a middle-of-the-road UL team is a must win.
 
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