+/- for the Mangling at Maryland

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Player	Mins	NU Pts	MD Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Nicholson	22	39	40	-1	+6.1	+5.1
Martinelli	11	28	21	+7	-3	+4.0
Barnhizer	27	42	52	-10	-0.1	-10.1
Verhoeven	17	18	35	-17	+4.9	-12.1
Audige	37	57	68	-11	-3.1	-14.1
Beran	18	17	35	-18	+0.2	-17.8
Berry	25	31	53	-22	+0.8	-21.2
Buie	37	53	71	-18	-5.8	-23.8

I ignored the last 1:23 of gametime because Maryland had their scrubs in.

Not so much to write about this time. When Nick Martinelli was on the court, we outscored Maryland 27-21, although he wasn't responsible for much of the productivity.
The 5 man lineup of Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Audige/Buie provided the bulk of that time, winning 24-17 in 10 minutes.
Nicholson was a perfect 5 of 5 from the field. The official box score has him attempting and missing a 3 pointer. That didn't happen. It was a Beran miss.
The scorer had a rough game, missing a really obvious block by Nicholson on a dunk attempt by Ian Martinez.
Also, I know Ty Berry had at least 2, possibly 3 steals and he is in the boxscore for 1.
Its not good when the scorer is getting things wrong and nobody fixes the errors.

Anyhow, the minuses are widespread. We were -17 in the 17 minutes Verhoeven was on the court, though much of that was bad play by his teammates.
We were -18 in the 18 minutes Beran was on the court.

In this game the veterans did not play well and some of the new guys did.
The starters got beat 15-11 in about 8 minutes.

If our opponent has someone who can stay in front of Boo Buie, we have a problem on offense.
And something tells me that if we are going to have Chase Audige bringing the ball up the floor, we're going to see more athletic teams pressing us.

 

[GatoLouco]

Verhoeven has done some nice things for us and I am, obviously, very thankful we have him.

But ultimately his minutes, ignoring foul problems, need to be determined by how much lung capacity Nicholson has. If Matt can play 30, he needs to be playing 30. We are a better team with him, significantly better.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I starting to salivate at the prospect of Nicholbomb's senior season. Assuming he can add some post moves to his game, we are looking at a potential All B1G player. 7ft, 270 lb guys who can move like him aren't easy to find.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I starting to salivate at the prospect of Nicholbomb's senior season. Assuming he can add some post moves to his game, we are looking at a potential All B1G player. 7ft, 270 lb guys who can move like him aren't easy to find.

Senior season plus 1? I hope so. We have a solid core for 2 years... if Berry and Nicholson both take their extra year.

Nicholson at the 5, Martinelli at the 4, Hunger at the 4 and 5, Barnhizer at the 3 (or maybe 4)

Roper and Berry playing the 2 and some 3.

Please Boo, come back for one more year so Coach Collins can find your replacement if it isn't either of our incoming freshman guards (Parker Strauss and Jordan Clayton).

 

[ballerog711]

I hope with 4 guards on the coaching staff, they can do the same with the freshmen as they have with Boo and Chase, to an extent.

If that happens, they have a bright future.

Fingers crossed.

Should be able to get a post grad guard to help out.

 

[stpaulcat]

I starting to salivate at the prospect of Nicholbomb's senior season. Assuming he can add some post moves to his game, we are looking at a potential All B1G player. 7ft, 270 lb guys who can move like him aren't easy to find.

I throw up thinking Buie might not be back.

 

[ballerog711]

Remember he started Boo as a freshmen, I think the supporting cast coming back is better and tougher

 

[Hungry Jack]

I throw up thinking Buie might not be back.

You always think the world is about to end.

 

[stpaulcat]

You always think the world is about to end.

You always think Chicago is about to end.

 

[vee4three]

Player	Mins	NU Pts	MD Pts	Raw +/-	Player Adjust	Net +/-
Nicholson	22	39	40	-1	+6.1	+5.1
Martinelli	11	28	21	+7	-3	+4.0
Barnhizer	27	42	52	-10	-0.1	-10.1
Verhoeven	17	18	35	-17	+4.9	-12.1
Audige	37	57	68	-11	-3.1	-14.1
Beran	18	17	35	-18	+0.2	-17.8
Berry	25	31	53	-22	+0.8	-21.2
Buie	37	53	71	-18	-5.8	-23.8

I ignored the last 1:23 of gametime because Maryland had their scrubs in.

Not so much to write about this time. When Nick Martinelli was on the court, we outscored Maryland 27-21, although he wasn't responsible for much of the productivity.
The 5 man lineup of Nicholson/Martinelli/Barnhizer/Audige/Buie provided the bulk of that time, winning 24-17 in 10 minutes.
Nicholson was a perfect 5 of 5 from the field. The official box score has him attempting and missing a 3 pointer. That didn't happen. It was a Beran miss.
The scorer had a rough game, missing a really obvious block by Nicholson on a dunk attempt by Ian Martinez.
Also, I know Ty Berry had at least 2, possibly 3 steals and he is in the boxscore for 1.
Its not good when the scorer is getting things wrong and nobody fixes the errors.

Anyhow, the minuses are widespread. We were -17 in the 17 minutes Verhoeven was on the court, though much of that was bad play by his teammates.
We were -18 in the 18 minutes Beran was on the court.

In this game the veterans did not play well and some of the new guys did.
The starters got beat 15-11 in about 8 minutes.

If our opponent has someone who can stay in front of Boo Buie, we have a problem on offense.
And something tells me that if we are going to have Chase Audige bringing the ball up the floor, we're going to see more athletic teams pressing us.

I appreciate the work that goes into compiling these numbers every game. Have you ever looked at the correlation between your player adjustments and the raw +/- over a longer timeframe? I don't know if you store the data in a way that would enable that easily.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I appreciate the work that goes into compiling these numbers every game. Have you ever looked at the correlation between your player adjustments and the raw +/- over a longer timeframe? I don't know if you store the data in a way that would enable that easily.

I can do a lot with the data - plenty of flexibility. What you are asking about can be done, but I wouldn't expect it to be very revealing. The Player Adjustments are neutral, in that they are supposed to add up to zero for each game. But the intent of those adjustments is to allocate credit or blame for the Raw +/-. So if we lose 80-79 and only play 5 players the entire game, the Raw +/- is the same across the board for all 5 players, reflecting the team's performance, whereas the Player Adjustments could be wide ranging, reflecting the individual performances. (If somebody takes 15 shots and makes 3, he probably cost the team the game).

So player adjustments wouldn't be expected to be correlated with Raw +/-.
I think what would be expected is that playing time increases, with a short lag, as the player's "Raw +/-" and "Player Adjust" improve. "The team plays better when X is on the court, so I will play X more" or "X is doing a good job out there compared to his teammates."

I ran a regression last year to look at "Raw +/-" for every 5 man lineup (for NU) versus playing time. You'd want those to be positively correlated. But there was actually a slightly negative correlation. I posted the results (and my interpretation) and the ardent Collins supporters went ballistic. There is no way that negative correlation exists this season, because the starting lineup has played the most minutes (22% of available minutes) - the starters are net +21 for the Big Ten season, while the net +/- of all other lineups is -2.

One thing I have learned from this is that the coach's deployment of his personnel has a significant impact on a team's wins and losses over a 30 game season.

But feel free to suggest any changes to the methodology or request any analysis. Happy to discuss.