Francis

[seansherm]

Been some talk on whether Francis performance last night was just a bad game, he was tired, or does he struggle against better teams with better guards. Asked Claude to give me a little breakdown of the team vs top 9 league teams vs bottom 9 and Francis vs the same.

I don't really see much of a difference between the way he performed vs the way the team overall performs, outside total scoring. We scored 16+% less vs top teams than bottom, but Tariq scored 34+% less. Maybe better teams stop him from getting his shot as often? He did have three games vs top teams where he failed to get off 10 shots, no such games against bottom teams. That could also have to do with sitting when scores were out of hand, I didn't go that deep.


Team Total
vs. Top 9: ~ 62.2 ppg, 40% FG, ~30% 3PT
vs. Bottom 9: ~74.1 ppg, 45% FG, ~32% 3PT

Francis
Split PPG FG% 3P% RPG APG
vs. Top 9 14.3 42.7% 33.3% 1.6 2.3

vs. Bottom 9 21.8 46.6% 30.0% 2.6 3.9

 

[GM]

He’s definitely not perfect. I think we’ve also just gotta appreciate him for what he is and hope he continues to improve. Hopefully we can get some other scoring threats as well in the portal.

 

[RC80]

Thought I saw he had the 2nd or 3rd highest FT % in the last 60 years. Think I've commented how incorrect I was (on a number of occasions) questioning why we brought him in; so good for Tariq in having a very successful season; and working a capable Center his game will continue to get better. And hope it is with us.

 

[seansherm]

Thought I saw he had the 2nd or 3rd highest FT % in the last 60 years. Think I've commented how incorrect I was (on a number of occasions) questioning why we brought him in; so good for Tariq in having a very successful season; and working a capable Center his game will continue to get better. And hope it is with us.

He was phenomenal from the FT line, and getting there. That's one thing I didn't look at, whether there was a distinct difference in his ability to get to the line vs different levels of teams. I'd expect some drop off.

 

[JonathanAlan]

The UCLA Coach Cronin said when interviewed before the game that if you deny Francis the ball he can't score. They succeeded.

 

[RCBeta]

Right now, teams can ignore our 5 position and put more defensive pressure on our guards.
We are a capable center and strong forward away from giving Francis and guards more opportunities to score in a variety of ways.

 

[RUBigFrank]

UCLA game plan was to shut him down - which opened it up a little for Zrno and Buchanon. Hard as there isnt much other complementary scoring from the rest of the team each night.

 

[Bob Chaewsky_rivals]

Been some talk on whether Francis performance last night was just a bad game, he was tired, or does he struggle against better teams with better guards. Asked Claude to give me a little breakdown of the team vs top 9 league teams vs bottom 9 and Francis vs the same.

I don't really see much of a difference between the way he performed vs the way the team overall performs, outside total scoring. We scored 16+% less vs top teams than bottom, but Tariq scored 34+% less. Maybe better teams stop him from getting his shot as often? He did have three games vs top teams where he failed to get off 10 shots, no such games against bottom teams. That could also have to do with sitting when scores were out of hand, I didn't go that deep.


Team Total
vs. Top 9: ~ 62.2 ppg, 40% FG, ~30% 3PT
vs. Bottom 9: ~74.1 ppg, 45% FG, ~32% 3PT

Francis
Split PPG FG% 3P% RPG APG
vs. Top 9 14.3 42.7% 33.3% 1.6 2.3

vs. Bottom 9 21.8 46.6% 30.0% 2.6 3.9

Has limitations vs. top level competition on both ends of the court, and too slight. Definitely not worth 1.5 million.

 

[seansherm]

Has limitations vs. top level competition on both ends of the court, and too slight. Definitely not worth 1.5 million.

His production is hard to replace though. I'd go to $1M, maybe $1.2M. Don't think I'd go above that for what needs to be at least our third best player.

 

[rob kight]

Think he was worn down after long tough season. And UCLA had a 5 day rest vs 24 hours for RU. He just never got into the flow and we didn’t take advantage when they doubled him.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Think he was worn down after long tough season. And UCLA had a 5 day rest vs 24 hours for RU. He just never got into the flow and we didn’t take advantage when they doubled him.

He was absolutely warn down. Front rimmed quite a few shots which is a tell tale sign. it’s also true that UCLA did a good job of denying him the ball and making him work harder to get open which is tougher on tired legs (though they had success with this strategy in the first matchup too - of course it was also like the middle of the night for us in that one so again, smart approach…)

Has limitations vs. top level competition on both ends of the court, and too slight. Definitely not worth 1.5 million.

Everyone is more limited when double teamed. The team offense was still better off with him in the game than without him on the floor because other guys got more open opportunities. Unfortunately we just did not have enough weapons to use to take advantage. Early on we had some success feeding Ogbole but then he was in foul trouble and had to watch the push offs. After the first design play pass of the game into Grant where he drew the foul he couldn’t help us in the paint at all. We ended up playing 4 guards more than half the game. If you put a guy like Cliff on our team, Tariq could not be covered the way UcLA did IMO.

 

[bac2therac]

The UCLA Coach Cronin said when interviewed before the game that if you deny Francis the ball he can't score. They succeeded.

this....not many coaches in this league are defense first...cronin one of the few who has the size and athletes to gameplan for Francis. I felt many times coaches didnt have the personnel to gameplan for him....see Minnesota, 6 players are not going to be able to get expend all that energy in denying TQ the ball..ditto for the oregons, nw, md, psus of the world..no coincidence those are the schools that RU beat. Lets be honest the 2nd msu game was a fluke comeback and RU was down double digits most of the 2nd half.

 

[RUfan1977]

Been some talk on whether Francis performance last night was just a bad game, he was tired, or does he struggle against better teams with better guards. Asked Claude to give me a little breakdown of the team vs top 9 league teams vs bottom 9 and Francis vs the same.

I don't really see much of a difference between the way he performed vs the way the team overall performs, outside total scoring. We scored 16+% less vs top teams than bottom, but Tariq scored 34+% less. Maybe better teams stop him from getting his shot as often? He did have three games vs top teams where he failed to get off 10 shots, no such games against bottom teams. That could also have to do with sitting when scores were out of hand, I didn't go that deep.


Team Total
vs. Top 9: ~ 62.2 ppg, 40% FG, ~30% 3PT
vs. Bottom 9: ~74.1 ppg, 45% FG, ~32% 3PT

Francis
Split PPG FG% 3P% RPG APG
vs. Top 9 14.3 42.7% 33.3% 1.6 2.3

vs. Bottom 9 21.8 46.6% 30.0% 2.6 3.9

Back when Pikiel had McConnell, he could have him defend the other team’s top scorer and even add help defensively to make some other player beat them. Not surprising UCLA with the talent they have could limit Tariq’s effectiveness given how few other effective options Rutgers had this year. Great game by Mark and also Zrno to keep the game from getting out of hand.

 

[RUdad]

Think he was worn down after long tough season. And UCLA had a 5 day rest vs 24 hours for RU. He just never got into the flow and we didn’t take advantage when they doubled him.

Also think he was out of gas.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

this....not many coaches in this league are defense first...cronin one of the few who has the size and athletes to gameplan for Francis. I felt many times coaches didnt have the personnel to gameplan for him....see Minnesota, 6 players are not going to be able to get expend all that energy in denying TQ the ball..ditto for the oregons, nw, md, psus of the world..no coincidence those are the schools that RU beat. Lets be honest the 2nd msu game was a fluke comeback and RU was down double digits most of the 2nd half.

Yes - of course better defensive teams were able to plan for him. He was our only true weapon. The hope is if we can pick up a few guys with a pulse on offense in the frontcourt it will make a difference. The frontcourt offense will have only one direction it could go in.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Ucla had good offensive schemes- and very athletic players. We let too many lose balls get away and many unforced turnovers.

 

[Bob Chaewsky_rivals]

Think he was worn down after long tough season. And UCLA had a 5 day rest vs 24 hours for RU. He just never got into the flow and we didn’t take advantage when they doubled him.

If he was worn down it was probably due to his physical stature. He didn't get into the flow because UCLA took him out of the flow, also somewhat due to his physical stature IMO.

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Francis was facing in-your-kitchen defense from bigger players like this pretty much all night. Add in the refs letting a lot of contact go, he was in for a tough one.

 

[RUJMM78]

He’s definitely not perfect. I think we’ve also just gotta appreciate him for what he is and hope he continues to improve. Hopefully we can get some other scoring threats as well in the portal.

Rutgers needs at least two other players with Francis skillset but also taller.

 

[PhillyRU]

Big Ten TS% vs. Usage Rate | Created with Datawrapper

Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

www.datawrapper.de

Filtered for players with >65% of minutes played and a usage rate over 19%. He's certainly not as efficient as his Big Ten peers, but at the same time, very few other players are in his stratosphere for usage rate. Hopefully, with some more talent, he'll be able to shoot better.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Rutgers needs at least two other players with Francis skillset but also taller.

Ok sure. How many players with Francis’ scoring ability do you think wil enter the portal period? Spoiler alert - a lot fewer than some folks think.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Big Ten TS% vs. Usage Rate | Created with Datawrapper

Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

www.datawrapper.de

Filtered for players with >65% of minutes played and a usage rate over 19%. He's certainly not as efficient as his Big Ten peers, but at the same time, very few other players are in his stratosphere for usage rate. Hopefully, with some more talent, he'll be able to shoot better.

He’s honestly one of the most efficient scoring guards we’ve ever had not named Dylan Harper. The paper numbers don’t do his production justice either. When we couldn’t get anything going on a possession the plan was always to give it to him late to try to make something happen and for good reason. He drew more fouls that way and made more difficult shots in the winding seconds on the shot clock than any RU player in my memory. Those types of shot usage are not going to translate into pretty paper metrics, but they also aren’t indicative of poor shot selection. Most were near sure turnovers if he doesn’t take them. Nothing is a guarantee and Pike has work cut out for him in the offseason to recruit a frontcourt. Even with more money, it’s going to be a challenge to bring in what we need, but man, if we do - every RU fan should be excited about Tariq’s potential if he gets an opportunity to work in an offense with a servicable frontcourt. He’s not the fastest player but he’s one of the craftiest in the business for sure.

Let me add - we have a long way to go to make the defense servicable, clean up the turnover issues and a couple other rate limiting things. Better offensive rebounding is also very important for the style Pike plays, for instance. Can we piece together what we need? Let’s put it this way, we entered last offseason with 15/16 seed first game odds of being able to put together a competitive roster. I feel better than this about our positioning right now. We’re still an underdog, but feeling we’re more at 10/11 seed level odds of pulling things together.

 

[seansherm]

He’s honestly one of the most efficient scoring guards we’ve ever had not named Dylan Harper. The paper numbers don’t do his production justice either. When we couldn’t get anything going on a possession the plan was always to give it to him late to try to make something happen and for good reason. He drew more fouls that way and made more difficult shots in the winding seconds on the shot clock than any RU player in my memory. Those types of shot usage are not going to translate into pretty paper metrics, but they also aren’t indicative of poor shot selection. Most were near sure turnovers if he doesn’t take them. Nothing is a guarantee and Pike has work cut out for him in the offseason to recruit a frontcourt. Even with more money, it’s going to be a challenge to bring in what we need, but man, if we do - every RU fan should be excited about Tariq’s potential if he gets an opportunity to work in an offense with a servicable frontcourt. He’s not the fastest player but he’s one of the craftiest in the business for sure.

I'd bet, overall, only Dylan and Cam were overall more efficient in Pikes time. Not that we've had a whose who of exceptional guards.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I'd bet, overall, only Dylan and Cam were overall more efficient in Pikes time. Not that we've had a whose who of exceptional guards.

First of all - for the Bob and Division TF skeptics, it should be noted that Cam Spencer had plenty of games where he was denied the ball and only made 1 or 2 FGs at Rutgers. More than Tariq.

Then secondarily, while Cam was more paper efficient than Tariq, it wouldn’t be fair to compare their shooting percentages straight up. Cam wasn’t asked to create for himself in that offense. We ran a dual inside / outside threat game with Cliff and Paul as our distributor. Tariq took nearly twice as many free throws as Cam (in large part for this reason) and was asked to take significantly more shots given our limited alternative weapons. I don’t care that Cam has now developed into a successful NBA player, I remember what he was when he played for Rutgers and that version of him could not have delivered anything close to Tariq’s output / efficiency in his place this year. Anyone who disagrees has a very clouded memory of what Cam was at that time.

 

[seansherm]

First of all - for the Bob and Division TF skeptics, it should be noted that Cam Spencer had plenty of games where he was denied the ball and only made 1 or 2 FGs at Rutgers. More than Tariq.

Then secondarily, while Cam was more paper efficient than Tariq, it wouldn’t be fair to compare their shooting percentages straight up. Cam wasn’t asked to create for himself in that offense. We ran a dual inside / outside threat game with Cliff and Paul as our distributor. Tariq took nearly twice as many free throws as Cam (in large part for this reason) and was asked to take significantly more shots given our limited alternative weapons. I don’t care that Cam has now developed into a successful NBA player, I remember what he was when he played for Rutgers and that version of him could not have delivered anything close to Tariq’s output / efficiency in his place this year. Anyone who disagrees has a very clouded memory of what Cam was at that time.

Nobody would disagree, I'm not sure we've had a player w higher usage #'s than Tariq. Not many would realize Tariq actually shot a higher % on two pointers than Cam on many more shots.

 

[satnom]

First of all - for the Bob and Division TF skeptics, it should be noted that Cam Spencer had plenty of games where he was denied the ball and only made 1 or 2 FGs at Rutgers. More than Tariq.

Then secondarily, while Cam was more paper efficient than Tariq, it wouldn’t be fair to compare their shooting percentages straight up. Cam wasn’t asked to create for himself in that offense. We ran a dual inside / outside threat game with Cliff and Paul as our distributor. Tariq took nearly twice as many free throws as Cam (in large part for this reason) and was asked to take significantly more shots given our limited alternative weapons. I don’t care that Cam has now developed into a successful NBA player, I remember what he was when he played for Rutgers and that version of him could not have delivered anything close to Tariq’s output / efficiency in his place this year. Anyone who disagrees has a very clouded memory of what Cam was at that time.

You need to start writing RU basketball analysis for this site. No fluff. Analysis based on metrics that support how the players are playing the game.

Richie: hire him quick.

GO RU

 

[GM]

He’s honestly one of the most efficient scoring guards we’ve ever had not named Dylan Harper. The paper numbers don’t do his production justice either. When we couldn’t get anything going on a possession the plan was always to give it to him late to try to make something happen and for good reason. He drew more fouls that way and made more difficult shots in the winding seconds on the shot clock than any RU player in my memory. Those types of shot usage are not going to translate into pretty paper metrics, but they also aren’t indicative of poor shot selection. Most were near sure turnovers if he doesn’t take them. Nothing is a guarantee and Pike has work cut out for him in the offseason to recruit a frontcourt. Even with more money, it’s going to be a challenge to bring in what we need, but man, if we do - every RU fan should be excited about Tariq’s potential if he gets an opportunity to work in an offense with a servicable frontcourt. He’s not the fastest player but he’s one of the craftiest in the business for sure.

Let me add - we have a long way to go to make the defense servicable, clean up the turnover issues and a couple other rate limiting things. Better offensive rebounding is also very important for the style Pike plays, for instance. Can we piece together what we need? Let’s put it this way, we entered last offseason with 15/16 seed first game odds of being able to put together a competitive roster. I feel better than this about our positioning right now. We’re still an underdog, but feeling we’re more at 10/11 seed level odds of pulling things together.

I mean it’s probably a top 5 offensive season from a player in the Pike era. People acting like we should just treat him as a 6th man off the bench are disrespecting him and massively overrating the types of players we can get in the portal. Francis is as a massive hit for us.

 

[RUTGERS96_not_95]

You need to start writing RU basketball analysis for this site. No fluff. Analysis based on metrics that support how the players are playing the game.

Richie: hire him quick.

GO RU

lol would never happen...these kids know nothing but they sure like to pretend

 

[RAC93]

Francis needs to be brought back. I don’t get how some have issues with him. Is he undersized? Of course he is, which makes what he is able to do even more impressive. He knows how to score. Did he struggle against UCLA, no doubt. Chalk it up to him being tired if you want, or due to a wave of athletic guards being thrown at him on defense from a coach that emphasized stopping him. Or it was a mixture of both. No matter to me as I saw enough of him based upon the whole year that I know he can shoot and he can score. Think how much more effective he might be with improved pieces around him. The more of our games I watched in conference play I was always surprised teams didn’t trap/double him more because I knew he was the majority of our offense.

As far as paying or how much to pay him, I would rather have an overpayment to him as opposed to any NIL dollars at all going to Grant, Badalau, Dortch, Ware, Fall, Ogbole, if Nwuli stays or goes doesn’t matter to me. If we give Francis $200-$300k too much due to a bidding war for his services I can live with that as he provides on court production. Of course I prefer we don’t overpay him and we have more dollars to fill out the remaining roster. I want Francis back, 4 starters brought in via portal to play with him, while the following are brought back to come off the bench: Mark, Buchanan, Zrno, Davis, Powers or maybe 3 or 4 of those names as some may leave on their own accord for portal $, different roles or playing time. So be it if they do. I don’t think any of those guys should be starters on a quality Big 10 roster, they belong in the conference but just as bench players, a much better role for them. A significant amount of NIL budget needs to go Francis AND the 4 starters we bring in. Maybe 60% -/+ of the budget as Francis plus these four are the bulk of what is needed to make the needle move to get back to the bubble and the NCAAs. We get a few more bench players from portal to go with guys we bring back from last year’s roster to come off the bench and use remaining budget 40% +/- or so of budget on them. I am ok with those percentages swinging higher towards starting lineup while decreasing percentage towards the bench players, and maybe that will happen.

 

[PhillyRU]

He’s honestly one of the most efficient scoring guards we’ve ever had not named Dylan Harper. The paper numbers don’t do his production justice either. When we couldn’t get anything going on a possession the plan was always to give it to him late to try to make something happen and for good reason. He drew more fouls that way and made more difficult shots in the winding seconds on the shot clock than any RU player in my memory. Those types of shot usage are not going to translate into pretty paper metrics, but they also aren’t indicative of poor shot selection. Most were near sure turnovers if he doesn’t take them. Nothing is a guarantee and Pike has work cut out for him in the offseason to recruit a frontcourt. Even with more money, it’s going to be a challenge to bring in what we need, but man, if we do - every RU fan should be excited about Tariq’s potential if he gets an opportunity to work in an offense with a servicable frontcourt. He’s not the fastest player but he’s one of the craftiest in the business for sure.

Let me add - we have a long way to go to make the defense servicable, clean up the turnover issues and a couple other rate limiting things. Better offensive rebounding is also very important for the style Pike plays, for instance. Can we piece together what we need? Let’s put it this way, we entered last offseason with 15/16 seed first game odds of being able to put together a competitive roster. I feel better than this about our positioning right now. We’re still an underdog, but feeling we’re more at 10/11 seed level odds of pulling things together.

No doubt, I put that data together to attest to the tremendous workload Francis has carried this season. And true shooting % doesn't even capture Francis' remarkably low TO% and his rapidly improving assist rate. Overall offensive rating of 118.4 is better than DH and just a tick below Cam for the best at Rutgers.

I know individual Off. Rating is imperfect, but top 10 guard seasons at RU since 2002. There's a real argument that Francis had the best season of the bunch.

Cam Spencer 119.4 (19.8 usage)
Tariq Francis 118.4 (29.0)
Dylan Harper 115.2 (28.8)
'06 Quincy Douby 115 (32.8)
'11 James Beatty 109.2 (15.6)
'03 Ricky Shields 108.8 (20.5)
'04 Ricky Shields 107.8 (23.1)
'15 Myles Mack 107.6 (25.9)
'17 Mike Williams 107.6 (18.8)
'21 Paul Mulcahy 106.5 (13.7)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

No doubt, I put that data together to attest to the tremendous workload Francis has carried this season. And true shooting % doesn't even capture Francis' remarkably low TO% and his rapidly improving assist rate. Overall offensive rating of 118.4 is better than DH and just a tick below Cam for the best at Rutgers.

I know individual Off. Rating is imperfect, but top 10 guard seasons at RU since 2002. There's a real argument that Francis had the best season of the bunch.

Cam Spencer 119.4 (19.8 usage)
Tariq Francis 118.4 (29.0)
Dylan Harper 115.2 (28.8)
'06 Quincy Douby 115 (32.8)
'11 James Beatty 109.2 (15.6)
'03 Ricky Shields 108.8 (20.5)
'04 Ricky Shields 107.8 (23.1)
'15 Myles Mack 107.6 (25.9)
'17 Mike Williams 107.6 (18.8)
'21 Paul Mulcahy 106.5 (13.7)

And he did it without a frontcourt (had to be our worst one under Pike) and in his first year of playing high major basketball period (he played at the lowest D1 level possible before this). Again, we still need to go into the portal and bring in the right guys to pair with his game, but it’s simply nonsense to suggest a frosh who shot under 35% from the field and was by far the worst defensive guard on the team showed more forward looking potential for next season.

 

[mikeyoc]

Right now, teams can ignore our 5 position and put more defensive pressure on our guards.
We are a capable center and strong forward away from giving Francis and guards more opportunities to score in a variety of ways.

Yep. He accomplished what he did without much help. Won-loss record would have been way worse without his presence for sure