Good read and I agree with pretty much all of it.
http://www.kentuckysportsradio.com/...ueprint-a-statistical-path-to-the-postseason/
http://www.kentuckysportsradio.com/...ueprint-a-statistical-path-to-the-postseason/
Freddie Maggard on how UK gets to a bowl game
- Thread starter screwduke
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I think it's pretty clear which games are the ones where UK should be right in it, but I'm looking for a bit more out of Stoops starting this year. It's time to get over the hump and beat a team or two that we "shouldn't beat". Maybe it's UF in the swamp or UGA at home. There really isn't much of a home field advantage in the UL-UK series, and there isn't much of a talent gap so it's time for stoops to prove that there isn't a coaching gap.
I completely agree with everything you said. We are to a point where the roster is his and the boneheaded amateur coaching decisions should be few and far between. The time to show who you are and the direction you have this program heading is now. What is amazing to me is the number of people who are viewing this season as another throw away year and are willing to accept 5-7 again. I still keep hoping that one day this program will have some sort of legitimate expectation from the majority of its fans.
I think some of our fans are realistic and some simply want bigger gifts under the tree.
This year Phil Steele ranks only New Mexico State far below our ranking of 74 at 124. Southern Mississippi is 79th and South Carolina is right there with us at 75th. Including Austin Peay a Div II team, that is 3 teams we should beat and 1 toss-up. Even Vanderbilt and Mizzou are ranked ahead of us. So according to Phil Steele we will have to pull off two minor upsets to go to a bowl game and he does say we have a good chance.
Phil Steele is an impartial analyst who isn't coming from what he wants or thinks should or shouldn't be he is just making the best prediction he can and is the best in college football at doing just that. That is what a "legitimate expectation" actually is from an objective person. Steele is a renown sports analyst saying we need to exceed expectations and pull a few upsets to advance our standing. I to have my desires and hopes of winning 6 or more games this year just like I did last year but I can separate my desires from my best guess. There is nothing amazing about that reality whatsoever.
This year Phil Steele ranks only New Mexico State far below our ranking of 74 at 124. Southern Mississippi is 79th and South Carolina is right there with us at 75th. Including Austin Peay a Div II team, that is 3 teams we should beat and 1 toss-up. Even Vanderbilt and Mizzou are ranked ahead of us. So according to Phil Steele we will have to pull off two minor upsets to go to a bowl game and he does say we have a good chance.
Phil Steele is an impartial analyst who isn't coming from what he wants or thinks should or shouldn't be he is just making the best prediction he can and is the best in college football at doing just that. That is what a "legitimate expectation" actually is from an objective person. Steele is a renown sports analyst saying we need to exceed expectations and pull a few upsets to advance our standing. I to have my desires and hopes of winning 6 or more games this year just like I did last year but I can separate my desires from my best guess. There is nothing amazing about that reality whatsoever.
So where exactly is Stoops going wrong then? We have been led to believe that he has the best recruiting classes that the school has ever seen over the last four years, and yet, even with the SEC east being way down we still need to upset a terrible Vandy and Mizzou team to make a bowl. Is the recruiting really not that good or is Stoops just not doing his job of coaching up the best talent we have had here in a long time?
Great ideas by FM.... improvement on offense, defense and special teams will lead to more wins.
Here's hoping the coaches will read it.
Here's hoping the coaches will read it.
I hope you're not a OCHS grad. I think it's too early to tell if Stoops is "going wrong". I do think you haven't grasped that his "best recruiting classes" are just this year becoming upperclassmen. You keep talking about the past as if it is the present and the future. Take a breath and look at our team this year.
Barker is a RS so THIS YEAR. He was the QB that held the 2014 class together and has minimal experience but THREE MORE YEARS OF ELIGIBILITY Do you understand that?
Our offense is made up of mostly Juniors this year THEY HAVEN"T BEEN JUNIORS BEFORE THIS YEAR. They were sophomores in the SEC playing against juniors and seniors last year.
This is third season for most of Stoops players and his best recruiting class and it HASN"T BEEN PLAYED YET.
I don't normally use caps but it seems necessary.
Pretty much agree with this, but I'm looking more at a Miss State and a Missouri (prove last year wasn't a fluke) than I am UF and UGA.
I'd agree with that. Plus UK hasn't been competitive with UGA the last 3 games AT ALL. Gotta show me they're willing to at least compete in that game.
Highly-touted freshmen that are good enough to play in the regular rotation right away most often make their biggest improvements in year 2. The exception being possibly at QB. Add to that the fact that a good coach/staff building or rebuilding a program most often takes its biggest jump in year 3. I think this supports why several were expecting considerable improvement and a bowl game last year, and are only hopeful, but skeptical, now, after watching the same ole QB inefficiencies, WR pass drops, porous rush defense, and lack of protection last season. The extreme optimism of 2015 apparently is being joined by a "show me" skepticism for 2016.
IMO, it will be a challenge to go bowling without at least a marginally-decent defense. And that starts with marginally effective rush defense. If you can't stop the run, then you aren't going to win in the SEC. JMO.i
Even if Vanderbilt is ranked slightly above us, a win against Vandy is not an upset when the game is Lexington.
I agree with his article, but honestly this is something we should not be sweating in year four!!
It's the blogging equivalent of Christopher Columbus excitingly waking you up from a nap to tell you he's discovered your toilet.
I do not understand that as well. If Stoop's actually has things on the "correct course" I see no reason to not expect 6 wins THIS year. As I have said before, I think there is a HUGE difference between a 5 win and 6 win THIS year.
In his pre-season Power Poll rankings Steel has UK #74, SC #75, USM #79 and NMSU #124. Then, of course, there is FCS Austin Peay. Vandy is ranked #70 and Mizzou #62. In this data he does not provide a rating number, only a ranking. Theoretically, the Power Rating numbers, when adjusted for home field advantage (varies by opponent) represent the "spread". There are 2 points to bear in mind: (1) There is often a small difference in "ratings" (i.e., < 3 points) despite much larger difference in "ranking" and (2) the Power Poll rankings he presents are based on "raw numbers" and not adjusted for home field advantage. In his UK write up he expects the Cats to win the "5 they should" + 1 "minor upset" (as you put it) and be bowl eligible.
FWIW, if you use the Plus/Minus numbers (almost as good as the Power Poll per Steel) and adjust for home field the Cats are favored in 5 games (USM, NM State, USC, Vandy and AP). By this metric they would be a 2 point home 'dawg to MSU, a 7 point road 'dawg @ Mizzou and only a 5 point home 'dawg to GA. Is it too much to ask to win just 1 of those 3 games? Now the flip side of this argument is the Cats project only as a 5 point favorite against USC and Vandy so the first order of business is to take of business in the ones you are expected to win. Regardless, for the second year in a row, the Cats are presented with a 6 win schedule and, IMO, they absolutely must take advantage of it.
Peace
The last two years we could have, and honestly should have, beaten both Otis and Fla. I'm sorry I'm one of those that is not sold on Stoops yet and not sure he can get it done...should not be this much struggling and this many question marks heading into year four
I tend to agree with you and I think some are trying to lower expectations in an effort to keep the temperature on Stoops turned down. However IMO we are already living on borrowed time when it comes to recruiting. I really believed that we needed to make a bowl or 7 wins last year to keep the momentum going, and I simply can't see selling this program to quality recruits past the 2017 season if there isn't some on-field evidence that the building is actually getting built.
Looking at our roster I see a ton of names that are candidates for significant improvement, or breakout seasons this year, more than I can remember. I like it when the numbers are on your side. The coaches and players have worked incredibly hard to develop into a quality program and I thoroughly expect that we will see the results of their work this year.
As for Phil Steele, he is a great analyst but he, like most is making predictions largely on recent past performance. Until such time as there is visible evidence that we are making a strong move upward, don't expect this years predictions from the analysts to be much different than last years w/l record.
Really...and you think averaging 17ppg is going to win in sec play...the lack of offense cost UK wins against Otis and Fla lasr year
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"— 17 Quarterback Sacks and 53 Tackles for Loss were embarrassingly low totals. Forcing action across the line-of-scrimmage, or disruption plays, are principal."
Will be tough sledding to see much, if any, improvement here. Maybe if Tubman and Hatcher magically appeared back on the roster ...
Will be tough sledding to see much, if any, improvement here. Maybe if Tubman and Hatcher magically appeared back on the roster ...
Didn't say offense wasn't important. I guess I'm an old crusty, because I still believe the key to winning in this sport is being able to "establish the run" and to "stop the run." None of Stoops' teams have demonstrated the latter yet, and that's my biggest concern since he is a defensive guy.
I understand your offensive concerns, but I'm not sure the UofL loss was due to lack of offense as much as your inability to tackle the QB when he took off running. A couple other games (EKU, La Laffayette) were much closer than they should have been for the same reason.
I am not sure it is possible to recruit good enough at UK to "Establish the run" in the SEC . Of course "Establishing the run"against the lesser teams get us to a Bowl game but I believe at UK we have to take advantage of what there defense gives us and throw sometimes to open up the run.. It seams we have run out of gas at mid season the last two years. Does anyone think the new S and C Coaches might improve that
Yes Phil Steele analysis is not too different than Calipari's idea of demonstrated performance and he is pretty accurate with his predictions in any case. If Stoops wins 5 games this year and 8 games next year should he be canned? Should we have fired Rich Brooks at this stage in his Kentucky career? I think we should win 6-7 games this year with an outside chance at 8. If we lose barker during the UF game for the year should we still win 6-7 games? People are talking like the program hasn't improved since Stoops got here----that's poppycock.
The fact is the better players Stoops has brought in are just starting to mature and develop as collegiate football players. Two year old bourbon is OK but 12 year old bourbon is better.
Don't understand Phil Steele's ratings at all. We beat a bad MO team last year and their recruiting was bad this past year. Completely unproven QB and playmakers return and they lost a couple of their best players from their D. How in God's name are they considered better than us?
USC was pitiful last year. Muschamp hasn't proven he can coach in the SEC (and he had a whole lot more in the cupboard when at UF than he inherits at USC). USC may be the same or worse this year. BTW, they lost their best defensive player for the season already.
While I don't anticipate a cakewalk to a bowl game, I do think we should be able to get 6 wins this year, with an outside chance of 7. No reason to think MO and USC shouldn't be hard-fought wins this year.
USC was pitiful last year. Muschamp hasn't proven he can coach in the SEC (and he had a whole lot more in the cupboard when at UF than he inherits at USC). USC may be the same or worse this year. BTW, they lost their best defensive player for the season already.
While I don't anticipate a cakewalk to a bowl game, I do think we should be able to get 6 wins this year, with an outside chance of 7. No reason to think MO and USC shouldn't be hard-fought wins this year.
It's a safe bet to under rank uk. We could win 8 games and he would still have us in the 50s or 60s next year.
I didn't say anything about firing Stoops, In fact I expressed that I'm quite optimistic abut this season. I just said if we can't show something on the field this year, recruiting is going to take a major hit next year, and I would give you 5:1 odds on that. (hopefully that becomes a moot point).
I don't think it's to early at all judging by what we have seen on the field. Throwing out wins and losses we are 36 games into the Stoops era. Does the team look any better in its execution and organization than it did 3 years ago? We should be seeing a lot of improvement that just isn't there yet.
I tend to agree that, against better teams, UK likely needs to "pass to run" more than "run to pass". It really makes no difference "how" you move the ball as long as you move the ball. That said, there are 3 situations in ball games when you basically "have to" run it: (1) In the red zone, (2) in short yardage "possession" situations and (3) running out the clock late. Believe it or not, while Spurrier was at FL their overall rushing game stats were really not much better than UK's except in 1 category where there was usually a big disparity, rushing TDs. They were Fun and Gun up and down the field but would run it in when they got close.
Steel does give Mizzou a bit more pre-season creed than do most. Mizzou returns 8 starters from a defense that was ranked in the top 6 nationally in 3 categories (total D, passing D and scoring D) and #28 in run D. Last year's DC moves up to HC. Last year Towles probably had his best game of the year against Mizzou (22/27 for 249 yards, 2 TDs and no picks). Cats were also 9/14 on 3rd down. Four points of that projected UK +6.4 point spread is due to home field advantage.
Peace
Some Kentucky fans are saying they can't see Stoops has improved anything----that ridiculous. I don't know if Stoops will get it done or not but it is really weird how some can think that he has not done anything to help the program improve since he got here. You have to be totally unaware if you can't see improvements.
Maggard does a good job analyzing what UK needs to do, and I do think you have a good chance of getting six wins. The other side of the coin is what opponents do. Four opponents with new coaches, so a lot is unknown. Missouri had so much weirdness last year, with the coaches illness and the racial unrest, they could bounce back more than you think. Muschamp has his back against the wall, so that is unpredictable. Kirby Smart could well be an upgrade at Georgia, and Dawson might be pretty tough with his knowledge of UK and a very accurate QB. MSU loses Dak, but Mullen is a great coach who seems to be able to reload every year. Kentucky is going to need to take a big step forward to get to a bowl, but they can do it. Go Cats.
IF UK offense had scored say 10 pts and controlled some clock the second half Otis doesn't have the ball enough to score enough to win....period. hell I don't think they had over 1-2 1st downs!
It's not that UK is not improved over prior years. In terms of player quality and depth and facilities - they are. The problem becomes that when everybody else sees what UK is doing or has done, they just throw more money at their own programs. Just not sure where the great bling race is taking us all. Simply put - UK needs to win a projected loss. Getting that in your face W will do more than anything else to keep commits in the fold and leans away from the fence and the stands reasonably full. Like it or not, this will be a watershed year.
There is a big difference between "expecting" five wins and "accepting" five wins.
That's a tall order for this team to accomplish. So many ifs it makes your head spin, again.
Well, I finally got around to taking a closer look at Maggard's explanation of how to get to a bowl. I still like my explanation better. [roll]
I tried to apply a very brief "sanity check" to 4 of Maggard's key areas of needed improvement (scoring, rushing, Total D and Passing %). By that I mean for each category I compared his "needed improvement number" against actual improvement numbers for all FBS teams between the 2014 and 2015 seasons. This is certainly a pretty rough approach but the point here was to see if any of his "necessary improvement numbers" were ridiculously unrealistic and fell well outside of typical year to year variances. So...
Scoring Offense:
Maggard Says: Cats must improve by 5 PPG
WildCard Says: Seems reasonable. 30 of 127 teams improved by 5 PPG or more from 2014 to 2015
WildCard Says: Seems reasonable. 30 of 127 teams improved by 5 PPG or more from 2014 to 2015
Rushing Offense:
Maggard Says: Cats must improve by 33 YPG
WildCard Says: Seems reasonable. 34 of 127 teams improved by 33 YPG or more from 2014 to 2015
WildCard Says: Seems reasonable. 34 of 127 teams improved by 33 YPG or more from 2014 to 2015
Yards Allowed:
Maggard Says: Cats must improve by 39.2 YPG
WildCard Says: Seems reasonable. 29 of 127 teams improved by 39.2 YPG or more from 2014 to 2015
WildCard Says: Seems reasonable. 29 of 127 teams improved by 39.2 YPG or more from 2014 to 2015
Which brings us to...
Completion %:
Maggard Says: Cats must improve by 7.6%
WildCard Says: This might be tough. Only 7 of 127 teams improved their completion percentage by 7.6% or more from 2014 to 2015. Looking a little deeper 6 of those 7 were apparently teams with returning starters. Furthermore, Barker himself was only a 50% passer in 2015 (35-70 with 2 INT). In 2015, 30 teams completed at a 62.5% or better rate so 62.5% is not an unrealistic benchmark in FBS ball. Without question, he "looked" better in the B/W game than he did in the last game against UofL but that is somewhat an apples and oranges comparison. Throw in a new offensive staff and system and you have more uncertainty even if the feeling is positive. Bottom line for me is we just have not seen enough of Barker and Gran to reasonably predict how this improvement factor turns out. All JMO.
WildCard Says: This might be tough. Only 7 of 127 teams improved their completion percentage by 7.6% or more from 2014 to 2015. Looking a little deeper 6 of those 7 were apparently teams with returning starters. Furthermore, Barker himself was only a 50% passer in 2015 (35-70 with 2 INT). In 2015, 30 teams completed at a 62.5% or better rate so 62.5% is not an unrealistic benchmark in FBS ball. Without question, he "looked" better in the B/W game than he did in the last game against UofL but that is somewhat an apples and oranges comparison. Throw in a new offensive staff and system and you have more uncertainty even if the feeling is positive. Bottom line for me is we just have not seen enough of Barker and Gran to reasonably predict how this improvement factor turns out. All JMO.
Peace
I see uavel is planning on bowling in the Pizza Pit funny Jurich cannot sell out ...honestly without free tickets unless UK comes to town..
The last time UK played in Louisville UK had to return unsold tickets. They will sell out the suites and a couple big games a year.