I do not understand that as well. If Stoop's actually has things on the "correct course" I see no reason to not expect 6 wins THIS year. As I have said before, I think there is a HUGE difference between a 5 win and 6 win THIS year.
In his pre-season Power Poll rankings Steel has UK #74, SC #75, USM #79 and NMSU #124. Then, of course, there is FCS Austin Peay. Vandy is ranked #70 and Mizzou #62. In this data he does not provide a rating number, only a ranking. Theoretically, the Power Rating numbers, when adjusted for home field advantage (varies by opponent) represent the "spread". There are 2 points to bear in mind: (1) There is often a small difference in "ratings" (i.e., < 3 points) despite much larger difference in "ranking" and (2) the Power Poll rankings he presents are based on "raw numbers" and not adjusted for home field advantage. In his UK write up he expects the Cats to win the "5 they should" + 1 "minor upset" (as you put it) and be bowl eligible.
FWIW, if you use the Plus/Minus numbers (almost as good as the Power Poll per Steel) and adjust for home field the Cats are favored in 5 games (USM, NM State, USC, Vandy and AP). By this metric they would be a 2 point home 'dawg to MSU, a 7 point road 'dawg @ Mizzou and only a 5 point home 'dawg to GA. Is it too much to ask to win just 1 of those 3 games? Now the flip side of this argument is the Cats project only as a 5 point favorite against USC and Vandy so the first order of business is to take of business in the ones you are expected to win. Regardless, for the second year in a row, the Cats are presented with a 6 win schedule and, IMO, they absolutely must take advantage of it.
Peace