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stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
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If you've seen the "Make the Playoffs Great Again" thread, you've seen what I think is a pretty cool hypothetical classification structure that can be created. Unfortunately though, it's impossible to see how that would fully play out heading into next year, as we don't know who would win under this new playoff structure.

I personally wouldn't mind completing the model, but to do so would like to request the help of the collective genius of the Edgy board. Below is a link to the 8A bracket based on the classification and seeding outlined in the aforementioned thread. This is the same site Edgy uses for the bracket challenge so many of you should already be set up and familiar with the process. For those that aren't, simply create a login and then "Find a Tournament" in "Illinois" under "Football" and look for the StonedLizards Pie in the Sky Playoffs.

If there's enough of a response and desire from the board, I'll post the other 7 classes. Can then use the collective genius prediction results as the basis for completing the model and see how it finally plays out. Would also be able to see where this leads us heading into 2017. Understand this wouldn't be perfect, but consider the board as a whole on par or better than using a prediction site. Also allows an offload of some of the work ;). It's the off season, what else do you have to do anyway?

http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=465257&tclass=8A
 
V

Voodoo Tatum 21

All-Conference
May 18, 2016
2,970
1,765
0
Hi StonedLizard

Just to Clarify:

Are we supposed to predict what we think would have happened this past fall (Fall 2016) under the new seeding (Maine South wins over Loyola)

OR

Are we supposed to predict what we think would happen next fall ( Fall 2017) IF these were the teams in the playoffs in 8A for Fall of 2017?
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
57
The first one.

This is what 8A playoffs would have been had we moved to this system at the start of 2016 (this past season), so you're predicting alternate reality 2016 playoffs results. There's a few games that we would already know the results of (BR @ Fremd and Montini @ PR), but don't know how the rest plays out.
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
57
jwarigaku said:
Stoned,

Overall I like your proposed system but rather than based on retrospective seeding I would think it be just as valuable to use it in the current season and place teams based on Their season performance rather than past teams performance.
Click to expand...

I may be misreading your proposition. Come playoff time, the teams would be classified based on combination of the power points earned in the past two seasons, and the power points earned in the current season, with a weighting that favors the current season...

(Average points earned past two season/3) + ((points earned current season*2)/3)

Teams are classified twice:
  • pre season classification (all teams ranked by power points earned in past two years, separated into 8 equal classes). This tells us how many points Naz earns for playing Benet in the current year.
  • post season classification (qualifying teams [using existing qualification criteria] ranked by power points from past two years + the current year, with above formula applied). This tells us what class they fall into for playoffs.
 
J

jwarigaku

All-Conference
Jan 30, 2006
4,201
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Stoned,

I think I understood what your formula said I just think that going back 2 prior seasons is too far and not indicative of the current teams capability even when reflecting on a 2 fold multiplier on this year's outcome. All said I am not negative on your work at all as I think it's much better at dealing with a comparative system than what is currently available. Nice work!

stonedlizard said:
I may be misreading your proposition. Come playoff time, the teams would be classified based on combination of the power points earned in the past two seasons, and the power points earned in the current season, with a weighting that favors the current season...

(Average points earned past two season/3) + ((points earned current season*2)/3)

Teams are classified twice:
  • pre season classification (all teams ranked by power points earned in past two years, separated into 8 equal classes). This tells us how many points Naz earns for playing Benet in the current year.
  • post season classification (qualifying teams [using existing qualification criteria] ranked by power points from past two years + the current year, with above formula applied). This tells us what class they fall into for playoffs.
Click to expand...
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
57
jwarigaku said:
Stoned,

I think I understood what your formula said I just think that going back 2 prior seasons is too far and not indicative of the current teams capability even when reflecting on a 2 fold multiplier on this year's outcome. All said I am not negative on your work at all as I think it's much better at dealing with a comparative system than what is currently available. Nice work!
Click to expand...
Ah ok, just wanted to make sure you had it down. That said, it's a quick task to see what that would look like. If you were to use just the 2016 regular season power points earned instead of regular + past two seasons and weighting logic...

Moved into 8A:

NN
St Charles East
Lockport
Lake Zurich

Moved into 7A:

Lemont (from 8A)
Libertyville (from 8A)
Montini (from 8A)
Naz (from 8A)
Carmel (from 6A)
Mchenry (from 6A)
St Viator (from 6A)
Fenwick (from 6A)
Wheeling (6A)
Boylan (6A)
St. Rita (6A)
Sterling (6A)

Moved to 6A:

SHG
Rochester
Vernon Hills
Peoria
Phillips
Marmion
Marian Central
Danville
Rockford Auburn amongst those that end up in 6A.

All in all, don't think it's too bad an option. It would still incorporate some historical precedence into the picture, seems to have largest impact on teams that have historical success and play a schedule with opponents varying between 5-8A classifications. I think you end up with a fairer classification for this years Naz/Montini/Lemont teams, but perhaps a bit unfair for some of those 6A teams moved in 7A, and wouldn't mind seeing SHG remain in 7A.
 
J

jwarigaku

All-Conference
Jan 30, 2006
4,201
1,559
73
Stoned,

Probably so things to tweak but you got it on the right track for sure! You formula is very similar to what I've been showing from PA but takes prior year performance into account which is good.

stonedlizard said:
Ah ok, just wanted to make sure you had it down. That said, it's a quick task to see what that would look like. If you were to use just the 2016 regular season power points earned instead of regular + past two seasons and weighting logic...

Moved into 8A:

NN
St Charles East
Lockport
Lake Zurich

Moved into 7A:

Lemont (from 8A)
Libertyville (from 8A)
Montini (from 8A)
Naz (from 8A)
Carmel (from 6A)
Mchenry (from 6A)
St Viator (from 6A)
Fenwick (from 6A)
Wheeling (6A)
Boylan (6A)
St. Rita (6A)
Sterling (6A)

Moved to 6A:

SHG
Rochester
Vernon Hills
Peoria
Phillips
Marmion
Marian Central
Danville
Rockford Auburn amongst those that end up in 6A.

All in all, don't think it's too bad an option. Still would incorporate some historical precedence into the picture, seems to have largest impact on teams that have historical success and play a schedule with opponents varying between 5-8A classifications. I think you end up with a fairer classification for this years Naz/Montini/Lemont teams, but perhaps a bit unfair for some of those 6A teams moved in 7A, and wouldn't mind seeing SHG remain in 7A.
Click to expand...
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
57
Thanks Jwar,

Looking at this a little further, I think removing the historical success from the playoff classification number, and just using the current year power points, puts much more emphasis on the regular season schedule/conference a team plays in. Teams like SHG and Rochester, who play in a conference that is largely "under" them competitively, are going to lose the historical context and end up reflecting more of their regular season conference strength come playoff classification time rather than that and their recent past. I'm not sure SHG would ever move past 6A. They would have the 19th most 2016 regular season power points in 6A after going undefeated. Along with Rochester, they were a pre season 8A classified team, play in a closed conference and likely would not be able to get another 8A classified team on their regular season schedule.

Contrarily, teams like Carmel and Viator likely end up in 7A for playing in a better overall conference.

Perhaps there's a middle ground, or further adjustment to the weighting (1/5 two year historical average and 4/5 regular season?), but I found myself enjoying the defacto "success factorness" and wouldn't want to lose that.
 
stonedlizard

stonedlizard

Senior
Oct 4, 2009
656
637
57
Received 5 (+1 unfinished) brackets so far. Fewwww more and I may be inclined to carry this forward. Appreciate the look for those that have had the time!
 
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