GAMBOL
- Thread starter BBdK
- Start date
Here we go.
Heading into this week I'm 4-6
Three games this week:
New England - 7 point favorites at home. Doubt they'll ish the bed 2 weeks in a row
Green Bay - pk at Minnesota. Not totally going with my heart here. AR is going to have a chip on his shoulder, and, they're due.
Philadelphia - 6 point favorites at home. I don't think Tampa Bay can keep up.
Heading into this week I'm 4-6
Three games this week:
New England - 7 point favorites at home. Doubt they'll ish the bed 2 weeks in a row
Green Bay - pk at Minnesota. Not totally going with my heart here. AR is going to have a chip on his shoulder, and, they're due.
Philadelphia - 6 point favorites at home. I don't think Tampa Bay can keep up.
Got NE at -3.5 and pulled back even our close enough.
What's the rule on betting against UK? Is fine as long as is just spread right. -24 seems like a lot but I guess this isn't the same BU team as last season.
What's the rule on betting against UK? Is fine as long as is just spread right. -24 seems like a lot but I guess this isn't the same BU team as last season.
Well this last week was better
So I'm 6 and 7
I don't like many of the games this week.
Thinking about Dallas though. With Romo back, at home on Thanksgiving, and I just think Carolina might be due for a clunker.
So I'm 6 and 7
I don't like many of the games this week.
Thinking about Dallas though. With Romo back, at home on Thanksgiving, and I just think Carolina might be due for a clunker.
Dallas - pk. Just a hunch
Green Bay - 8. Bears are banged up, they're retiring Favre's number, and Cutler usually throws picks @ Lambeau
Green Bay - 8. Bears are banged up, they're retiring Favre's number, and Cutler usually throws picks @ Lambeau
[thumb2]
~Today's card at Aqueduct, might yield something in a rolling Pick 3..races 3-5 particularly.
I was going to single the 5 in the 3rd, Mott's horse, but the trainer of the 2, Bobby Barbera, is starting off the young meet pretty strong and will be hard to ignore here. So, still having the single in the 4th, we can shoot for some prices in the 5th where I think there's a false favorite in Wild About Harry. WAH, who i watched break his Mdn in a NY Bred turf sprint back at Bel fall meet (almost 10-1) and while running a bit over his head in the last two, i think it's the distance factor(8.5 furlongs today--0-1, and 0-1 at a flat mile) and not class. He's 8-5 in the ml, Castellano, who rode him in the mdn score gets back on, and while he will be closing fast, we'll still take a stand against him today.
$1 P3:
R3) #2, #5
R4) #6
R5) #2, #5, #8
$6 bucks.
~Should be noted that in the 4th, a 16K claimer, RAP Racing's Megatrez is entered which is the lowest level this $170K purchase from Keeneland has raced. He's still a dog at that lowly level.
Good luck all...[thumb2]
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Ok, got the 5 home @ ml price--5-1, $12.40 in this leg-- now, get to our single..Brian Lynch/Luis Saez sitting there at 9/2 currently.
Took the show spot, which of course tanks our play. Megatrez runs an uninspiring 4th to round out your super.
Looking at the lest leg...my 2,5,8 are on the board at 7,9, and 8-1 respectfully. So, with this in mind, we'll do what only a sane horse player will do..we'll box them in the exacta for a buck, and a dime super which will include Harry currently at 6/5, and we'll repeat it twice.
$1 exbx: 2,5,8--$6
$.10 super: 2,5,7,8 x 2--$4.80
$10.80...Legggoooo
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Jeez..running 1-2-3-4 at top of the lane..and it all goes to hell..[laughing]
Odds on choice, WAH, takes it by a long neck over my 2 @ 9-1. $2 ex paid $28 and change, super runs: 7,2,3 5..paying out $38.40 for every $2.40 bet. 3 went off at 8-1, my 8 went off at 9-1, so i could've been looking at $80 and change if things would've worked out...[poop]
What'd we learn...nothing. You have to take a stand in your wagering sometimes, and this was it. The only redeeming aspect was i nailed the trip on Harry to the T. I will keep him in my stable obviously, and will note the improvement at today's distance. NY's turf season ends this month, so I'll look for this 2yo on the lawn at Gulfstream this winter. Castellano snowbirds there, so definitely one to watch in that track's 3YO grass series.
Odds on choice, WAH, takes it by a long neck over my 2 @ 9-1. $2 ex paid $28 and change, super runs: 7,2,3 5..paying out $38.40 for every $2.40 bet. 3 went off at 8-1, my 8 went off at 9-1, so i could've been looking at $80 and change if things would've worked out...[poop]
What'd we learn...nothing. You have to take a stand in your wagering sometimes, and this was it. The only redeeming aspect was i nailed the trip on Harry to the T. I will keep him in my stable obviously, and will note the improvement at today's distance. NY's turf season ends this month, so I'll look for this 2yo on the lawn at Gulfstream this winter. Castellano snowbirds there, so definitely one to watch in that track's 3YO grass series.
Days like this is when you can make your money. Today, just passing the time here at work, and just happened to have a decent opinion last night on this sequence of races. I handicap daily, and will make plays based on my stable alerts, and how the horse(s) fit today's conditions. I dont bet all the time, as I try different angles/wager formats on occasion and I wait for my comfort zone.
Believe me, sometimes it's best I never tout anything. Like the 1-6-8 exacta I just played in the 6th..6 won paying $12.40, but exacta ran OUT. :fistbump:
But, I do have one more in the get out race..Mr Canada, the 7 horse. Zito trains this one for Preston Madden. He's been on the grass for his last 4 of 5, and has ran creditably despite being a bit out classed. Last out 12 days ago, rain forced that one off the turf, Franco sends him, and gets caught late and ends up 3rd by a neck.
Today, Zito wheels him back on the turf, Manny gets back on for the third time in a row (Assuming he's figured this horse out by now) and is facing a few of the ones he beat last out. He's 8-1 on the ml, and we could get that or maybe a bit higher at the post. Worth a couple bucks i suppose.
Believe me, sometimes it's best I never tout anything. Like the 1-6-8 exacta I just played in the 6th..6 won paying $12.40, but exacta ran OUT. :fistbump:
But, I do have one more in the get out race..Mr Canada, the 7 horse. Zito trains this one for Preston Madden. He's been on the grass for his last 4 of 5, and has ran creditably despite being a bit out classed. Last out 12 days ago, rain forced that one off the turf, Franco sends him, and gets caught late and ends up 3rd by a neck.
Today, Zito wheels him back on the turf, Manny gets back on for the third time in a row (Assuming he's figured this horse out by now) and is facing a few of the ones he beat last out. He's 8-1 on the ml, and we could get that or maybe a bit higher at the post. Worth a couple bucks i suppose.
$2 Pick 3..with the 4/5 fav, returns $94 even..$47 for the buck.
If i'd included the fav, at an additional $2, I was looking at a $39 dollar ROI.
Horse players, a special mix of stupid/savvy/stingy..
[laughing]edit..7 is taking some early money..down to 9/2.
Tired badly late, at 5-1..this horse should've been a no bet under his ml, That's the crowd's money chasing it. 15-1 shot gets up at the wire.
GLA the rest of the day..[thumb2]
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Taking Cal -4.5 tonight over SDSU in Vegas.
SDSU is 3-2 and can't score again. Think Cal scores enough to cover
SDSU is 3-2 and can't score again. Think Cal scores enough to cover
Got the USF/UCF 2nd half line last night. Easy money. UCF is ridiculously bad. First time in a while there's not a "-" sign in front of my balance.
Taking Sacramento -3 tonight even with Boogie out. Twolves have lost 16 in a row in which Rubio isn't playing. Which he is not tonight.
georgia made me a lot of money this year.. bet the under is a lot of there games
of course louisville/pitt scores 66 points first half, which i had over, then cant even get over 26 in 2nd.
in my last 5 five team parlays, i have hit exactly 4/5 picks each time..
also had WKU -16.5...up by 40 and the game gets called with 5:03 left...3 seconds from counting.. that was my luck these past 2 weeks
of course louisville/pitt scores 66 points first half, which i had over, then cant even get over 26 in 2nd.
in my last 5 five team parlays, i have hit exactly 4/5 picks each time..
also had WKU -16.5...up by 40 and the game gets called with 5:03 left...3 seconds from counting.. that was my luck these past 2 weeks
Whew, this a lot tougher than I thought.
Pretty much have the yips at this point.
A real eye opener...
Pretty much have the yips at this point.
A real eye opener...
NFL is basically impossible. Way too much info, money and analysis to do well there.
Some of the college lines you can catch vulnerable, especially the halftime lines.
Some of the college lines you can catch vulnerable, especially the halftime lines.
Halftime and in game lines are best. Still think basketball is just too much game action to "know" either way.
Most of the time in the NFL the easiest lines are the ones you just would rather avoid. Last week Houston -4 at home vs N.O. Completely thought it was a lock but do I want to be the idiot who loses because of Brees? No.
Boom easy cover! You have to be willing to bet on just about anyone without bias which doesn't bode well for me because I get comfortable with teams and usually try to pick and choose when they cover or not.
Most of the time in the NFL the easiest lines are the ones you just would rather avoid. Last week Houston -4 at home vs N.O. Completely thought it was a lock but do I want to be the idiot who loses because of Brees? No.
Boom easy cover! You have to be willing to bet on just about anyone without bias which doesn't bode well for me because I get comfortable with teams and usually try to pick and choose when they cover or not.
Small 3 team teaser tonight...why not:
4.0 Points
NBA Lines Denver Nuggets v Chicago Bulls-- Bulls -5½
NBA Lines Golden State Warriors v Charlotte Hornets-- Warriors -5
NBA Lines Toronto Raptors v Atlanta Hawks-- Hawks +½
Good luck all...[thumb2]
4.0 Points
NBA Lines Denver Nuggets v Chicago Bulls-- Bulls -5½
NBA Lines Golden State Warriors v Charlotte Hornets-- Warriors -5
NBA Lines Toronto Raptors v Atlanta Hawks-- Hawks +½
Good luck all...[thumb2]
Thought the Knickerbockers could be a decent play tonight against the Sixers..I mean can Philly win b2b after snapping the big 0-fer the season? Meh...replaced that notion with the Hawks.