You're correct! He may be ahead in getting to that second contract BUT in the end he will have made more money when it's all said and done if he stayed and got back to his original projection. That extra $14M won't ever be made up. Let's say he plays 20 years in the league (if he leaves early) but 19 if he leaves late. The chances of him making $14M as a 20 year vet is slim. So he still comes out on the plus side.
Giles Question???
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You're correct! He may be ahead in getting to that second contract BUT in the end he will have made more money when it's all said and done if he stayed and got back to his original projection. That extra $14M won't ever be made up. Let's say he plays 20 years in the league (if he leaves early) but 19 if he leaves late. The chances of him making $14M as a 20 year vet is slim. So he still comes out on the plus side.
I see what you are saying, but I think you are missing a bit. In this, you're assuming each contract is for the same money, and in one case comes 1 year earlier (if he leaves this year). This means leaving early gets him to each successive contract one year earlier and then at the very end there's a one year contract that would have to be 14M to make up the loss up front. But 29 year old player doesn't get the same contract as 30 year old. Or 33 vs 34. So we can't take it out like that.
Here's the way I think about it. If he leaves this year, come year 5 he is looking at a new contract. Think Kyrie Irving. Kyrie signed a 5 year, 90M contract after his rookie deal. That's 18M per. If he had told the Cavs in year 5 I want a 1 year deal for 14M they would have fallen all over themselves. So, if Harry is in a similar boat in year 5 (that is, he can sign a max or near max contract), he could sign a 1 year deal and then he is in exactly the same boat as the Harry that stayed in college for another year. EXCEPT, he is now a 5 year pro instead of 4, so he can sign bigger deals. And again, these veteran contracts are getting crazy in the NBA now.
If Harry is a lotto pick, I hope he goes. I love him as a player (he gives everything and seems to be an awesome team guy), but we want Duke players to be successful at whatever they want. He wants to be a pro, and if it makes sense for him to go (and I think the money does if he's a lotto pick), he should go. We could use his play. But we'll find the next guy.
We certainly don't want to be like UNC and keep guys around a long time. Justin Jackson made $0 this year.
i see what you're saying but down the line it would make more sense for him to stay. these kids leave to chase the dollar right now. they don't think down the line and there's no guarantee he will even make it to year 5 to get that new contract. he may start getting the money earlier but i think being a top pick will make him more money. if he stays one more year, he will have accumulated on;y $4M less than if he was to leave early this year (and get that contract year 5). plus the higher you get picked the bigger the shoe deal. can't forget about that
This is a pretty good article and offers different perspectives as to what Giles faces. The authors is of the opinion that he sould return.
Exactly what was pointed out last in the article is why imo he leaves.
The risk of getting hurt next year and making "0" dollars.
I do like it being pointed out about his confidence being his real issue. You can tell it's mental and he's worried about his future
The risk of getting hurt next year and making "0" dollars.
I do like it being pointed out about his confidence being his real issue. You can tell it's mental and he's worried about his future
First off, Giles is absolutely a fantastic kid. Impossible not to wish the absolute best for him. He's gone. He still is viewed as a major talent by scouts (which he is) and risks losing a lot of money if he were to come back and get injured again. There is absolutely no scenario where he comes back to Duke. It's a real shame that Duke did not get to see his real talent on display (mostly injury related but needs more minutes too). Prior to his injuries he was arguably the best high school prospect since Lebron.
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