Global Climate Changes

[DreadLox]

Accurately measuring the average temp of the entire planet is not without a margin of error even in the modern age of satellites. I've read about how they estimated past values using sparse data points, written anecdotes, and inferences.

You guys just throw up graphs like it's gospel, applying zero healthy skepticism.

There is a science to using natural phenomenon as proxies. Sparse data points? Sure, as you go back in time it gets sparser. The published articles include error bars. The mercury thermometer was invented back in 1714, and by the middle of the 19th century, methodical records were being kept. Science didn't begin with the Manhattan Project.

You include "inferences" as if that's some kind of defect. What science doesn't use inference?

 

[IdaCat]

These mutants ignore facts and rely on fiction

Values derived using methodologies are not facts. I work with data and sometimes have to use methodologies to simplify and make complicated "facts" useful. In many cases, it's all you can do. Once the values are derived, they magically become hard facts to many information consumers, even those who should know better. These values are often passed along and used out of context in other calculations like a game of telephone.

Climate models are developed using methodologies, this is one reason they have been so wildly inaccurate over the years.

The Earth is a dynamic open energy system with countless variables at play in the climate equation, many, if not most of which we don't yet understand. If you want to accurately model the climate, you'll need to model the universe.

 

[IdaCat]

There is a science to using natural phenomenon as proxies. Sparse data points? Sure, as you go back in time it gets sparser. The published articles include error bars. The mercury thermometer was invented back in 1714, and by the middle of the 19th century, methodical records were being kept. Science didn't begin with the Manhattan Project.

You include "inferences" as if that's some kind of defect. What science doesn't use inference?

If you can't admit to the problems, I can't help you.

 

[DreadLox]

If you can't admit to the problems, I can't help you.

Nobody knows the trouble you’ve seen.

 

[LOL_Man]

Climate sensitivity, though, is widely debated. Even some of the most pessimistic projections put the global temperature increase over the next 100 years at around 2-3 degrees C. That's not an existential threat - the earth is not going to become an uninhabitable fireball.

A 2-3 degree increase over the next 100 years while devastating would be fantastic and I'd take it in a heartbeat even though the havoc and death caused by 3 degrees of warming over a 1750 baseline would kill most land animals and turn the oceans acidic but there is no way it stops there and there is no way it takes that long. People have problems understanding what feedback loops are and the power of the exponential function.

As we warm it in turns feeds more warming gasses into the atmosphere in a loop. Around the globe there are hundreds of them churning and turning then unleashing more then in turn, more.

Positive feedback loops accelerate. It's why we're far outpacing even the most dire predictions from the IPCC. 2100 is a joke. 2050 is a pipe dream. We're moving into an entirely new climate with entirely new rules and it is well underway now. By 2030 it will be unrecognizable. Why don't you hear anything about the ongoing 6th mass extinction event?

Rate of change. How fast can the plants and animals adapt to the change in their environment as when rate of change exceeds the ability to adapt then the result is extinction.

Look around you as far as you can see. Nothing survives a rapid 3 degree warming. How about an 18 degree global warming by 2026 caused by methane pulsing out of control in the ESAS? Remember the Russian expedition in 2019? Shakhova returned in tears. As a scientist and methane expert it was her worst imaginable fear as she understands what those readings mean. More warm water is flowing up the gulf stream into the Arctic and the ESAS. The destabilized cold air in turn moves out of the arctic down over the continental US and you get those "arctic blasts" that are suddenly a thing. And a trillion tonnes of methane in the ESAS is further destabilized by the warming water at depth.

The last thing you will see is the sky burn. The planet is going to be baked. As nuclear power plants melt down we will lose our atmosphere and all our water. Absent a protective atmosphere, open space will scour the planet's surface clean so that no sign of anything is left. A dry lifeless rock much like Mars is all that will remain. Maybe a few billionaires will watch it all from space.

 

[LOL_Man]

If people don't even understand how we can directly measure the atmosphere from trapped air bubbles in glaciers going back 800,000 years then why are they participating in this thread?

It is possible to discern past air temperatures from ice cores. This can be related directly to concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gasses preserved in the ice. Snow precipitation over Antarctica is made mostly of H216O molecules (99.7%). There are also rarer stable isotopes: H218O (0.2%) and HD16O (0.03%) (D is Deuterium, or 2H)[9]. Isotopic concentrations are expressed in per mil δ units (δD and δ18O) with respect to Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (V-SMOW). Past precipitation can be used to reconstruct past palaeoclimatic temperatures. δD and δ18O is related to surface temperature at middle and high latitudes. The relationship is consistent and linear over Antarctica[9].

Snow falls over Antarctica and is slowly converted to ice. Stable isotopes of oxygen (Oxygen [16O, 18O] and hydrogen [D/H]) are trapped in the ice in ice cores. The stable isotopes are measured in ice through a mass spectrometer. Measuring changing concentrations of δD and δ18O through time in layers through an ice core provides a detailed record of temperature change, going back hundreds of thousands of years.

Ice core basics

 

[PhDcat2018]

72 degrees today and we get another top 20 all time hottest February day on record in Lexington.

It's beautiful here in BG. Love it and hope it continues

 

[IdaCat]

Don't worry. We're balancing it all out in this part of the country. It was -16 here one night about a week ago.

A raccoon that frequents my yard was scratching on my back sliding glass door. I opened the blinds and we stared at each other for a while. I assumed he wanted in. I yelled for my wife to come and he ran off through the snow. Saw him the next day so he survived.

I OTOH rely on natural gas for heat. My bill has doubled from 2 years ago, but at least the dems haven't shut down the pipelines ... yet.

 

[LOL_Man]

Don't worry. We're balancing it all out in this part of the country. It was -16 here one night about a week ago.

A raccoon that frequents my yard was scratching on my back sliding glass door. I opened the blinds and we stared at each other for a while. I assumed he wanted in. I yelled for my wife to come and he ran off through the snow. Saw him the next day so he survived.

I OTOH rely on natural gas for heat. My bill has doubled from 2 years ago, but at least the dems haven't shut down the pipelines ... yet.

What do you do with these extreme temperature fluctuations? Do you depend upon your heating and cooling to get by?

Rate of change. The plants and animals aren't inside with temperature controlled HVAC systems. The food and animals you eat have to be able to keep up with those temperature changes. How do you suppose those rapid fluctuations are impacting them and how long can they keep it up?

Here's a hint. They already aren't. That's why you're living right smack in the midst of the 6th mass extinction event in earth's history but you don't even know it.

 

[IdaCat]

What do you do with these extreme temperature fluctuations? Do you depend upon your heating and cooling to get by?

Rate of change. The plants and animals aren't inside with temperature controlled HVAC systems. The food and animals you eat have to be able to keep up with those temperature changes. How do you suppose those rapid fluctuations are impacting them and how long can they keep it up?

Here's a hint. They already aren't. That's why you're living right smack in the midst of the 6th mass extinction event in earth's history but you don't even know it.

Go preach your doom on a street corner with the other religious freaks.

After your attempt to bs me with proven lies earlier in the thread, IDGAF about anything you have to say.

 

[LOL_Man]

Go preach your doom on a street corner with the other religious freaks.

After your attempt to bs me with proven lies earlier in the thread, IDGAF about anything you have to say.

No, I am pretty sure this thread is about Climate Change so I think I'll keep discussing it here. Whatever your opinions are on my actions are of really no consequence to me as you're not capable of contributing meaningfully to the discussion anyway. I might as well be talking to a termite.

 

[IdaCat]

No, I am pretty sure this thread is about Climate Change so I think I'll keep discussing it here. Whatever your opinions are on my actions are of really no consequence to me as you're not capable of contributing meaningfully to the discussion anyway. I might as well be talking to a termite.

Shouldn't you be heading post-haste to New Zealand to build a CC fallout shelter? You're wasting time. The end is near.

 

[warrior-cat]

Values derived using methodologies are not facts. I work with data and sometimes have to use methodologies to simplify and make complicated "facts" useful. In many cases, it's all you can do. Once the values are derived, they magically become hard facts to many information consumers, even those who should know better. These values are often passed along and used out of context in other calculations like a game of telephone.

Climate models are developed using methodologies, this is one reason they have been so wildly inaccurate over the years.

The Earth is a dynamic open energy system with countless variables at play in the climate equation, many, if not most of which we don't yet understand. If you want to accurately model the climate, you'll need to model the universe.

These guys use social justice warrior science where any fact or point can be changed with fluidity inferences.

 

[DreadLox]

Are the global warming experts better than the Covid experts? Because man those experts were ****ing idiots.

Michael Lewis's book Premonition follows the story of one group of health care professionals and COVID. I recommend it to anyone still breathing.

We were in England many years ago during an epidemic. Not of people, but of farm animals. Hoof and Mouth disease. It kept lingering because people either refused to follow good advice or, tragically, couldn't. There's one simple way to kill a contagious disease: keep possible targets apart. You can't catch it if you don't come near someone who has got it. But there's another half of that: you can't give it to someone if you keep away from them. People aren't simply targets for the disease. They're also carriers. And that half of the equation just didn't get the play it should have. People don't have the right to infect other people. All the ranting and frothing was because people insisted they have the right to infect others.

BTW, after the introduction of vaccines, Republican deaths from COVID outnumbered Democratic deaths from COVID by 3-1. Arizona Republicans might have killed off enough older voters to give the Senate seat to the Democrat.

 

[warrior-cat]

BTW, after the introduction of vaccines, Republican deaths from COVID outnumbered Democratic deaths from COVID by 3-1. Arizona Republicans might have killed off enough older voters to give the Senate seat to the Democrat.

False.

 

[LOL_Man]

Michael Lewis's book Premonition follows the story of one group of health care professionals and COVID. I recommend it to anyone still breathing.

We were in England many years ago during an epidemic. Not of people, but of farm animals. Hoof and Mouth disease. It kept lingering because people either refused to follow good advice or, tragically, couldn't. There's one simple way to kill a contagious disease: keep possible targets apart. You can't catch it if you don't come near someone who has got it. But there's another half of that: you can't give it to someone if you keep away from them. People aren't simply targets for the disease. They're also carriers. And that half of the equation just didn't get the play it should have. People don't have the right to infect other people. All the ranting and frothing was because people insisted they have the right to infect others.

BTW, after the introduction of vaccines, Republican deaths from COVID outnumbered Democratic deaths from COVID by 3-1. Arizona Republicans might have killed off enough older voters to give the Senate seat to the Democrat.

Then you should read "And the Band Played On" about the early AIDS epidemic. They made it into a movie which I didn't care for but the book was great. "The Hot Zone" was very good as well about the origin of Ebola.

The thing about these MAGA is I can't understand what their argument about COVID exactly is? We were faced with a new emerging bug we knew little about except that it had very high hospitalization rates and was highly contagious and airborne. In order to stop our hospitals from being overwhelmed and give ourselves time to better understand what we were looking at we took the steps necessary to do exactly that.

I'm completely unaware of any claims about death rates being the main problem which is what they love to argue. It has always been a question of hospitalization rates and ease of transmission and that's what we attempted to address. For the life of me I can't understand their thinking so I just ignore their empty demonizations.

I think their main problem is they confuse science and press reports. What the press says is rarely accurate completely and is basically an entertainment business rather than a reliable source of information. A person is only as informed as the information they seek, process, and retain. If you're allowing garbage in then you'll have garbage going out your mouth, most likely.

 

[Kingseve1]

Next Thursday, could be the hottest February day ever recorded in Birmingham Al. Forecasted for 81 degrees in winter. Lexington forecasted for another top 20 all time hottest February days.

 

[Beatle Bum]

These mutants ignore facts and rely on fiction

Stop doing that.

 

[Bill Cosby]

Michael Lewis's book Premonition follows the story of one group of health care professionals and COVID. I recommend it to anyone still breathing.

We were in England many years ago during an epidemic. Not of people, but of farm animals. Hoof and Mouth disease. It kept lingering because people either refused to follow good advice or, tragically, couldn't. There's one simple way to kill a contagious disease: keep possible targets apart. You can't catch it if you don't come near someone who has got it. But there's another half of that: you can't give it to someone if you keep away from them. People aren't simply targets for the disease. They're also carriers. And that half of the equation just didn't get the play it should have. People don't have the right to infect other people. All the ranting and frothing was because people insisted they have the right to infect others.

BTW, after the introduction of vaccines, Republican deaths from COVID outnumbered Democratic deaths from COVID by 3-1. Arizona Republicans might have killed off enough older voters to give the Senate seat to the Democrat.

Please keep taking more Covid shots.

 

[lex cath]

If people don't even understand how we can directly measure the atmosphere from trapped air bubbles in glaciers going back 800,000 years then why are they participating in this thread?

It is possible to discern past air temperatures from ice cores. This can be related directly to concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gasses preserved in the ice. Snow precipitation over Antarctica is made mostly of H216O molecules (99.7%). There are also rarer stable isotopes: H218O (0.2%) and HD16O (0.03%) (D is Deuterium, or 2H)[9]. Isotopic concentrations are expressed in per mil δ units (δD and δ18O) with respect to Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (V-SMOW). Past precipitation can be used to reconstruct past palaeoclimatic temperatures. δD and δ18O is related to surface temperature at middle and high latitudes. The relationship is consistent and linear over Antarctica[9].

Snow falls over Antarctica and is slowly converted to ice. Stable isotopes of oxygen (Oxygen [16O, 18O] and hydrogen [D/H]) are trapped in the ice in ice cores. The stable isotopes are measured in ice through a mass spectrometer. Measuring changing concentrations of δD and δ18O through time in layers through an ice core provides a detailed record of temperature change, going back hundreds of thousands of years.

Ice core basics

 

[rudd1]

-asks if folks are "childless"... then wonders why folks have a problem with how covid was managed. Daft.

^incongruent or just stupid? Either way, not a serious person.

 

[8titles_rivals270261]

Ha. Exactly.

 

[Bill Cosby]

-asks if folks are "childless"... then wonders why folks have a problem with how covid was managed. Daft.

^incongruent or just stupid? Either way, not a serious person.

Outside of Fauci and the pharma companies who made billions of dollars, I can’t believe there is anyone who still defends the Covid hysteria and response.

Even the media outlets that were all in are starting to whitewash the record for the sake of future internet search results.

 

[8titles_rivals270261]

Outside of Fauci and the pharma companies who made billions of dollars, I can’t believe there is anyone who still defends the Covid hysteria and response.

Even the media outlets that were all in are starting to whitewash the record for the sake of future internet search results.

Between the government collusion to silence anyone not aligned with their beliefs, the forced adherence to guideline for COVID, the ongoing hemorrhaging of taxpayer dollars that are not being appropriated correctly yet going to very specific and divisive efforts we are very quickly allowing our government to become socialistic and if it isn't cleaned up and some common good found soon it's going to result in a lot more lost freedoms than we can imagine.

 

[WTF Cat]

Welp... I'm convinced.

Where do I send my extra tax dollars?

 

[Deeeefense]

We can't wind-and-solar our way out of this, so throwing trillions of dollars at those technologies while de-investing in fossil fuels and nuclear does nothing but restrict human flourishing.

This got me curious as to just how much governments are spending on the two different categories of energy. It turns out governments spent $5.9 Trillion annually on fossil fuel subsidizes but only $1.2 Trillion on clean energy.
So nearly 5x more money still goes to fossil fuels over clean energy.

Fossil Fuels Received $5.9 Trillion In Subsidies in 2020, Report Finds

e360.yale.edu

https://www.iea.org/news/global-gov...-pandemic-spurred-by-energy-security-concerns

 

[Bill Cosby]

I think you’re comparing apples and oranges.

I don’t care enough to read the paper, but I’m skeptical of the IMF quantifying “undercharged environmental costs” and labeling it a government subsidy to push money towards “clean energy” investors pockets.

 

[Bill Cosby]

How much is it worth as a subsidy to “clean energy” companies to have the governments collectively look away while they fill products with cobalt scraped from mines by the bloody fingers of slave children?

 

[sefus12]

Next Thursday, could be the hottest February day ever recorded in Birmingham Al. Forecasted for 81 degrees in winter. Lexington forecasted for another top 20 all time hottest February days.

“Ever recorded”.
Kinda limits things, doesn’t it?

 

[8titles_rivals270261]

How much is it worth as a subsidy to “clean energy” companies to have the governments collectively look away while they fill products with cobalt scraped from mines by the bloody fingers of slave children?

Good article that talks specifically about that and how the carbon debt from batteries and the overarching risk to energy costs long term to get to the point where we can produce enough energy for EV's is massive. The statement below was telling to me because it also points out the overriding issue that even IF you can get half the worlds car park to EV it still only reduces world oil use by 15%. It's hard for me to get behind something so costly with so little overall value rather than a common sense approach that funds initiatives to make current ICE's more efficient while there is ongoing refinement of other alternatives with a goal to moving to a more sustainable option or options in the future.

"To illustrate the ultimate scale of demand that EV mandates alone will place on mining, consider that a world with 500 million electric cars — which would still constitute under half of all vehicles — would require mining a quantity of energy minerals sufficient to build batteries for about 3 trillion smartphones. That’s equal to over 2,000 years of mining and production for the latter. For the record, that many EVs would eliminate only about 15% of world oil use."

EV Carbon Dept Analysis

 

[JumperJack]

BTW, after the introduction of vaccines, Republican deaths from COVID outnumbered Democratic deaths from COVID by 3-1. Arizona Republicans might have killed off enough older voters to give the Senate seat to the Democrat.

Gee whiz, I’d love to see the source of the data that you use to make this claim.

 

[JumperJack]

In order to stop our hospitals from being overwhelmed and give ourselves time to better understand what we were looking at we took the steps necessary to do exactly that.

I'm completely unaware of any claims about death rates being the main problem which is what they love to argue. It has always been a question of hospitalization rates and ease of transmission and that's what we attempted to address. For the life of me I can't understand their thinking so I just ignore their empty demonizations.

It was well known in late summer of 2020 that the reaction had been overblown, that the virus was nowhere near as lethal as had been claimed, that hospitals in most localities were not being overrun, and that lockdowns were killing the country economically and socially. We know now that even the death rates had been falsely inflated.

Yet kids were locked out of schools, we added trillions in unnecessary debt, and elections became farcical.

If you can’t understand this thinking, you’re a liar or a vegetable. And if you can’t understand why there’s no faith in climate “science” after all of that, ditto.

 

[Bill Cosby]

It was well known in late summer of 2020 that the reaction had been overblown, that the virus was nowhere near as lethal as had been claimed, that hospitals in most localities were not being overrun, and that lockdowns were killing the country economically and socially. We know now that even the death rates had been falsely inflated.

Yet kids were locked out of schools, we added trillions in unnecessary debt, and elections became farcical.

If you can’t understand this thinking, you’re a liar or a vegetable. And if you can’t understand why there’s no faith in climate “science” after all of that, ditto.

The internet is a big place, but I’d imagine the Covid thread spanning the entirety of the pandemic and recording real time debate and reactions is one of the better consolidated records of real time reactions an analysis of the “science” as it was being made up.

Covid is the exact same as global warming but it has spanned decades rather than years.

Covid was the get rich quick start up dot com company, but global warming is the sure fire dividend paying value play.

 

[Beatle Bum]

This got me curious as to just how much governments are spending on the two different categories of energy. It turns out governments spent $5.9 Trillion annually on fossil fuel subsidizes but only $1.2 Trillion on clean energy.
So nearly 5x more money still goes to fossil fuels over clean energy.

Fossil Fuels Received $5.9 Trillion In Subsidies in 2020, Report Finds

e360.yale.edu

https://www.iea.org/news/global-gov...-pandemic-spurred-by-energy-security-concerns

What is “clean” energy?

 

[DreadLox]

Gee whiz, I’d love to see the source of the data that you use to make this claim.

Medical Economics. Dec 14.2022

More Republicans than Democrats died after COVID-19 vaccines were available

Researchers analyze pandemic mortality, ‘excess deaths,’ along party lines in two states.

www.medicaleconomics.com

My memory wasn't the best. Republican deaths were 74% higher than Democrat. And my memory divided the 74 by the 26.

The article was right at the top of my Google search: republican deaths from covid after vaccines.

What Google search did you use?

 

[DreadLox]

It was well known in late summer of 2020 that the reaction had been overblown, that the virus was nowhere near as lethal as had been claimed, that hospitals in most localities were not being overrun, and that lockdowns were killing the country economically and socially. We know now that even the death rates had been falsely inflated.

Yet kids were locked out of schools, we added trillions in unnecessary debt, and elections became farcical.

If you can’t understand this thinking, you’re a liar or a vegetable. And if you can’t understand why there’s no faith in
climate “science” after all of that, ditto.

COVID killed 2x more people than all the soldiers in all our wars combined. Sorry that it didn't impress you as dangerous enough.

 

[cole854]

COVID killed 2x more people than all the soldiers in all our wars combined. Sorry that it didn't impress you as dangerous enough.

No, it didn't. Actually, given all of the comorbidities that affect this entire country in any normal setting, there is no way on earth to tell how many died from covid, with covid, snorting covid, injecting covid, or just using it mixed w/ your nightly chest salve.

 

[DreadLox]

No, it didn't. Actually, given all of the comorbidities that affect this entire country in any normal setting, there is no way on earth to tell how many died from covid, with covid, snorting covid, injecting covid, or just using it mixed w/ your nightly chest salve.

It was probably higher. Excess deaths were higher than that. Was there a sudden spike in yaws, dropsy, and scurvy that went unreported?

 

[Bill Cosby]

Think how bad things would have been if the flu wasn’t nice enough to completely disappear during the pandemic.

 

[sefus12]

It was probably higher. Excess deaths were higher than that. Was there a sudden spike in yaws, dropsy, and scurvy that went unreported?

Or, hear me out, COVID deaths were massively over-counted or mislabeled (die from late-stage cancer but COVID positive = COVID death) to take advantage of the money given for every COVID death at the medical facility. And to make the vaccines and other measures taken by power-hungry leaders seem even more necessary.

That’s probably just a dumb conspiracy though. The govt/big pharma/big tech/media would never lie about The Science or the data behind it for their own personal gains, would they?