My cousin (Illinois alum) bet me last night that we would never make the final four. Every year we don’t go to the final four i pay him $20. When we make the final four, he owes me $5000. There is no time limit on the bet. I think it’s a pretty good bet on my part.
Good bet?
- Thread starter zbag51
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As the old Grand Old Opery joke goes and is very appropriate here, “Go up there in those hills east of Knoxville and have one of those good old boys make up a fresh batch of twenties and you will have on of the best bets of all time”. You have to be on your toes all the time when you are dealing with one of those Illini guys.
Zbag, I want to say it's a bad bet based on your odds, but one site tells me differently.
If you win in two years, you will have won with odds of 250:1 (if my math is correct). Current odds I saw at one site have the Cats in the Final Four at 125-1. DePaul is at a more realistic 250-1, and I saw Loyola at 250-1.
So according to the site, you got good odds. But I'd probably EASILY take higher odds and still bet against them.
I have no clue of your age, but let's say you're 30. If you win in 15 years (maybe 16 years if you want to be specific), you won $5000 vs. $600 - or a little more than 16:1.
If you win in 60 years at the age of 90, your payout is $5000 vs $1200 - a little more than 4:1.
I'd easily make a 16:1 bet they dont win in 15 years also.
You need to renegotiate.
Anyhow, fun idea. Hope you win.
If you win in two years, you will have won with odds of 250:1 (if my math is correct). Current odds I saw at one site have the Cats in the Final Four at 125-1. DePaul is at a more realistic 250-1, and I saw Loyola at 250-1.
So according to the site, you got good odds. But I'd probably EASILY take higher odds and still bet against them.
I have no clue of your age, but let's say you're 30. If you win in 15 years (maybe 16 years if you want to be specific), you won $5000 vs. $600 - or a little more than 16:1.
If you win in 60 years at the age of 90, your payout is $5000 vs $1200 - a little more than 4:1.
I'd easily make a 16:1 bet they dont win in 15 years also.
You need to renegotiate.
Anyhow, fun idea. Hope you win.
I’m almost, but not quite, 40. My thought is $20/year is basically nothing. A flash in the pan final four appearance, while unlikely in the short term, is not an unreasonable thing to happen over the next 40 years. All it takes is one (PBJ???!!!) transformational player.
I see what you’re saying. But, from another perspective, i have to lose the bet 250 years in a row before the $5000 favors my cousin. Not this year, but i actually think that we will be good in the future, and then this bet will be awesome.
Don't forget the power of compound interest, or the stock market. Let's say after 5 years your cousin has $100. He can double that in 7 years, invested well. After 12 years he's got $340, $820 after 19 years. Actually somewhat more, since I just added in the $20 per year at the end of each 7 year period. I'll let Sec 112 recalculate the odds. He'll surpass $5000 well before 40 years.
But his cousin is an Illini alum, so he'll spend that $20 per year and more on liquor to drown his sorrows. No compound interest for him
This is definitely true!But his cousin is an Illini alum, so he'll spend that $20 per year and more on liquor to drown his sorrows. No compound interest for him
Also have to consider HIS lifetime. If he dies in 10 years, and we go in year 11, you lose, unless he puts it in his Will.
Finally, consider whether he will be able to make a payment to you if either of you travel to Mars, as this is likely to happen before we make the final 4
Finally, consider whether he will be able to make a payment to you if either of you travel to Mars, as this is likely to happen before we make the final 4
Even if he or I are on Mars, Venmo still exists, don’t know why it wouldn’t work from Mars!