Good Game

[imajericho_rivals]

Outcome is a bit unbelievabke to me, but it is what it is.

Not sure we were necessarily outcoached as much as collectively at the 10 minute mark in the 2nd half our coaching staff and team forgot how to play.

Never seen a team dominate in the post so bad, get an opposing center to 4 fouls, and never feed the post again the entire game besides 1 pass to the other player who wasn't dominating inside.

Pretty unbelievable. But, Duke stayed alive and pulled it out. Can't argue that much.

Hopefully UNC gets their act together and gets revenge in Durham.

Good game though. Congrats on the win.

 

[johnl1219_]

Thanks for the post...it was an unbelievable win and great game. I, too, am surprised Roy didn't go to Johnson every time down the floor. I think Roy is a good to great coach, but some of his play calls are a little confusing.

UNC will be fine but they have to be kicking themselves right now.

 

[Laettner]

Solid post. Game in two weeks will be a battle & UNC is at worst an elite 8 team.

 

[HeLooks2MuchLikeDave]

Thanks for posting imajericho. I don't really know how it happened. But you figure if Carolina hits one of those threes throughout the game or one of those long twos, its a different outcome.

 

[imajericho_rivals]

If our team had one player hitting 3s as consistently as Allen, Ingram, or Kennard, I would be giddy with joy.

There is like some curse to UNC 3point shooting or something. I don't get it.

 

[Showenuff]

I think you guys would just rather mutter phrases like "live by the 3 , die by the 3" and stuff like that.

 

[HuffyJB]

I think you guys would just rather mutter phrases like "live by the 3 , die by the 3" and stuff like that.

Haha, touche.

I think UNC's 3 pt. shooting is a real cause for concern. You don't necessarily have to be an "elite" shooting team to be a championship contender, but I don't think you can be the worst shooting team in the conference.

 

[dukiejay]

I really can't figure out what has happened to Marcus Paige. He really wasn't even noticeable last night.

 

[aah555]

With regard to 3 pt. shooting, I would say UNC's biggest problem last night was shot quality. Most of UNC's 3s were very closely contested, and Marcus in particular was regularly shooting NBA length 3s over a set defender that has 3-4 inches on him. While I've seen Marcus make crazy shots like that in the past, those are simply not good shots. To get open 3s, you need to force the D to collapse and then kick out. That never really happened b/c UNC's guards struggled to get much dribble penetration, and b/c we surprisingly weren't doubling in the post.

As has been said ad nauseum, UNC's real mistake was not punishing us inside. We were playing tight man-to-man on the perimeter and letting UNC's bigs go one-on-one. UNC needed to take advantage of that. IMO, UNC's real mistake was trying to continue taking perimeter shots when we were clearly employing a strategy that, more or less, was conceding layups in favor of taking away the 3 pt. shot.

If you actually look at Duke's shooting, we really weren't all that great ourselves. Only 7 of 19 overall, and most of the looks we did make were wide open -- i.e., far better quality looks than the ones UNC was taking. Grayson, for instance, took a number of Marcus Paige-type 3s in the second half over a set defender -- and missed all of them. Thorton had a number of really clean looks that he missed. Really, Kennard was the only one who made a couple tough ones -- including the dagger with a couple minutes to go. The rest of the makes were mostly in rhythm 3s where our guys had enough room to get a clean look. IMO, UNC's problems beyond the arc is more an indictment of the quality of shots they were getting, rather than the level of shooting. There really weren't many (if any) 3s missed by UNC where I thought to myself -- oh we really caught a break with that miss. Most of UNC's 3 point attempts were low percentage shots.

 

[stanleyduke]

Its coaching. A big piece of K's offense is generating open 3's through ball movement or drive and kick out. UNC just doesn't do that. In games where UNC makes 3's, its generally more to do with a defensive lapse or the defense just giving them wide open looks to protect the paint. This UNC team doesn't run anything to get open 3s and there are no kick outs to shooters. Once it goes into the paint, its not coming back outside for a shot.

 

[aah555]

Its coaching. A big piece of K's offense is generating open 3's through ball movement or drive and kick out. UNC just doesn't do that. In games where UNC makes 3's, its generally more to do with a defensive lapse or the defense just giving them wide open looks to protect the paint. This UNC team doesn't run anything to get open 3s and there are no kick outs to shooters. Once it goes into the paint, its not coming back outside for a shot.

Agreed about the offense. Against Duke, UNC normally gets 3s from transition and Duke's defense collapsing to try and protect against post-ups and offensive rebounds -- which, in turn, creates wide open shots around the perimeter. In the second half, UNC really didn't do a ton in transition and they just didn't hurt us enough inside to force us to collapse our defense. While not taking advantage of Plumlee's 4 fouls was pretty criminal, it's also inexplicable how they let us get away with having Brandon Ingram on Kennedy Meeks for long stretches. That's just insane. If they had gotten it into Meeks, we would have had to double -- and that would have opened up 3s. But, they basically just let us get away with it. It's a real head scratcher. I was worried about BI getting pushed around by Brice Johnson. It never occurred to me that BI could be hidden on Meeks -- a guy who outweighs BI by like 60-70 pounds and showed he was about as strong as Jahlil.

 

[imajericho_rivals]

There were more than a few open 3s that were just bricked.

Britt's transition 3 is a glaring example.


As far as Paige goes, I outlined it on the UNC forum (though I got berated for it) that he is in a clear downward arch regression ever since his sophmore year. His stats clearly show he has dropped basically across the board in all shooting %s every single year (including FT %) where he was hitting at a 91% clip during the sophmore year... finished in high 80s. And is now hitting a putrid mid 70ish %.

It's regression pure and simple. You like to see progression from a player as he ages. He however hasn't. He won't even get drafted now.

 

[aah555]

There were more than a few open 3s that were just bricked.

Britt's transition 3 is a glaring example. .

There really weren't. I'll grant you the Britt's shot was a decent look -- though not really a good decision when you had numberse. I think Jackson also had one decent look from the elbow that he missed when we played a 1-3-1. But, a ton of those 3s were very marginal looks -- particularly for a collection of guys who can only be fairly classified as marginal shooters based on their season numbers. Reality is that Duke has 4 guys who shoot a better percentage from 3 than anyone on UNC -- and a fifth (Kennard) -- who happened to be on last night. However, if you go back and look, most of those shots were pretty well-challenged and the types of shots that marginal 3 pt. shooters are bound to miss. There's just such a huge difference when you have an extra couple of feet of space -- which is something I've come to appreciate from years of watching Duke.

And, I'd add, everyone misses a couple open looks -- particularly when they're not in a rhythm from outside. Thornton, for instance, was basically wide open on all 4 of his attempts -- though he only made 1, and Ingram also missed a couple easy ones as well (in view of his height). UNC has guys who can space the court if you leave them wide open. But they don't have good enough shooters to make it a weapon when the other team is making a concerted effort to take the 3 ball away. And, with regards to Paige, I would say that one thing that shouldn't be overlooked is that he was regularly trying to take step-back 3s over Jones and then Allen / Kennard --- 3 guards who are all about 4 inches taller than him. It's one thing to try that over similarly-sized guards like Thornton or QCook who don't have a ton of length. It's another to try to do that against bigger guys. Paige needed to be driving these guys.

And, to be clear, I'm not trying to criticize UNC's talent. IMO, they're clearly the more well-rounded squad. I'm suggesting they didn't use their talent well and played into our hands. As a Duke fan, I'd much rather have Joel Berry and Marcus Paige trying to take contested jumpers over our guards than see UNC playing volleyball on the glass. Stated differently, UNC let the last 5 minutes become a battle of both squads guards -- rather than a battle of bigs. And, in a battle of guards, I like our chances.

 

[imajericho_rivals]

There really weren't. I'll grant you the Britt's shot was a decent look -- though not really a good decision when you had numberse. I think Jackson also had one decent look from the elbow that he missed when we played a 1-3-1. But, a ton of those 3s were very marginal looks -- particularly for a collection of guys who can only be fairly classified as marginal shooters based on their season numbers. Reality is that Duke has 4 guys who shoot a better percentage from 3 than anyone on UNC -- and a fifth (Kennard) -- who happened to be on last night. However, if you go back and look, most of those shots were pretty well-challenged and the types of shots that marginal 3 pt. shooters are bound to miss. There's just such a huge difference when you have an extra couple of feet of space -- which is something I've come to appreciate from years of watching Duke.

And, I'd add, everyone misses a couple open looks -- particularly when they're not in a rhythm from outside. Thornton, for instance, was basically wide open on all 4 of his attempts -- though he only made 1, and Ingram also missed a couple easy ones as well (in view of his height). UNC has guys who can space the court if you leave them wide open. But they don't have good enough shooters to make it a weapon when the other team is making a concerted effort to take the 3 ball away. And, with regards to Paige, I would say that one thing that shouldn't be overlooked is that he was regularly trying to take step-back 3s over Jones and then Allen / Kennard --- 3 guards who are all about 4 inches taller than him. It's one thing to try that over similarly-sized guards like Thornton or QCook who don't have a ton of length. It's another to try to do that against bigger guys. Paige needed to be driving these guys.

And, to be clear, I'm not trying to criticize UNC's talent. IMO, they're clearly the more well-rounded squad. I'm suggesting they didn't use their talent well and played into our hands. As a Duke fan, I'd much rather have Joel Berry and Marcus Paige trying to take contested jumpers over our guards than see UNC playing volleyball on the glass. Stated differently, UNC let the last 5 minutes become a battle of both squads guards -- rather than a battle of bigs. And, in a battle of guards, I like our chances.

I mostly agree.

Absolutely there was a good bit of really dumb contested jump shots taken. I am not questioning that. But of our 12 or so missed 3s. There was some good looks in there.

But, all that doesn't matter. We didn't feed the ball inside any more and it is most likely why we lost. Which you also pointed out basically.

I just think if we had just one consistent shooter from deep (consistent) we could be great. We just don't have it. It is killing us badly!

But, props to Duke. They stuck in there and Ingram started making a lot of difficult shots. Duke definitely deserved the win. That isn't even in question.

 

[HuffyJB]

I am also surprised UNC didn't get the ball inside more late, but really the bulk of Johnson's work was not "dump downs" anyway. He was a monster on the offensive glass, and that is where most of his points came. He also got some on some drive and draws. I don't know that there was really more than a time or two when the ball was dumped to him for a back to the basket move. Maybe what explains his drop in production late is as much (or more) Duke rebounding better than it was UNC forgetting where to go with the ball.

 

[Kingbluedevil]

Johnson should have been calling for the ball and I didn't see it. Berry and Paige don't seem to match up well. If I were Roy I would have played a very physical game and there would have been more fouls called on both ends