Grunk

[Itraindogs]

3 years of Grunk seems clearly better than 1 year of Becht.

I think Campbell's first big test will be if he can retain important existing players. If he loses too many of them it will be next to impossible to make it up in the portal.

QB: Grunk
RB: Martin, Smith
WR: Denmark, Howard, Outten, Exinor
TE: Rappleyea, Reynolds
OL: Williams, Cousins, Shanahan, Goodman, Aliciene
DE: Granville, Harvey, Kemajou
DT: White, Wafle, Andrews
LB: Rojas, Campbell, Tasch, Arrington
DB: Tracy, Collins, Dixson, Belgrave-Shorter, Toure
K: Barker

Not enough context here. 1. Its not 3 years, first of all. Its 3 years of eligibility, with no assurance he stays after 1 year. Each year is renewed, and if he believes he can make more elsewhere he can either leverage the school or walk. Is it also possible that he plays for a discount? Sure. 2. 1 to 1 comparison for the team's chances of success in 2026. Do you really believe that Grunk will outperform Becht in year one in a system that Becht has been in for three years? I highly doubt it. In addition, Manske has already been in the system for one year and will sit for another under Becht. So, you have two players who have a jump on the system. Then, this year you have a 3td coming in. So, the exchange is not 1 year to 3 years. Its 1 to 1 with unknowns after.

 

[Itraindogs]

Manske might make sense because he wouldn't have an expectation to start next year. What's Smolik's status?

Too injury prone, I would not renew his compensation.

 

[Itraindogs]

PSU lost all of it's 2027 recruiting class and most of it's 2026 recruiting class. We only have 10 kids for 2026 and only one of those is a consensus 4* prospect. If we spend too much money on Becht/Manske we will have less to fill the rest of the roster.

I don't know the numbers so I'll make some up. Assume we could keep Grunk for $1 million vs Becht for $2.5 million. Grunk has 3 years of eligibility vs 1 year for Becht. The $1.5 million savings could probably buy us a DT & LB. So which would you rather have? 1 year of Becht or 3 years of Grunk + a LB + a DT?

Here's an interesting article about how much P4 colleges pay players at each position:
College football 2025: How much does each position cost? - ESPN

I am not sure about the math. First, each year is renewable. So, you have no guarantees Grunk stays past year 1. So, who gives you the greatest probability to win year one, someone who knows and has been groomed in a give system for 3 years or someone who will be back at the start line? Second, Grunk may have 3 years of eligibility but he is draft eligible in two years.. So, if you take a down year to keep him, you may only have him for one year or two. No guarantees. So, my evaluation is who gives me the most likelihood to win next year? I would argue Becht. If Grunk walks ok. Menske will have sat behind Becht for two years and will likely be ready. If NOT go to the portal for a QB.

I like Grunk. I think he is very talented. However, the overriding question is who gives Campbell the statistically higher probability to win more games next year?

Cignetti is not an idiot. There is a reason he goes to the portal every year for a QB that fits his system, He got Mendoza from Cal for 2.6 millionC last year and parlayed that into a B10 Championship and 1 ranking on the CFP. The very definition of success.

 

[Catch1lion]

I largely agree with the conventional wisdom on having a qb and his eligibility hopefully tied up for beyond a year. But with portal moves does it really matter all that much ? Quite a few of the CFP teams have transferred in the qb. Quite a few have transferred in a significant percentage of starters. I am not sure there is enough of a sample size to definitively answer that question.
Roster construction, 2025 CFP field
STARTERS SNAPS

��

Georgia	90.0%	10.0%
Ohio State	72.0%	28.0%
Oklahoma	68.0%	32.0%
Alabama	62.8%	37.2%
Oregon	57.4%	42.6%
Texas A&M	55.2%	44.8%
Miami	46.4%	53.6%
Texas Tech	36.7%	63.3%
Indiana	34.6%	65.4%
Ole Miss	33.7%	66.3%

Tulane .................................................................................44.5% ............................. 55.5%
JMU......................................................................................57.2%...............................42.8%

 

[Nitt1300]

Too injury prone, I would not renew his compensation.

"college" football

 

[PSUForever]

Trust me, I get what you're saying and the way you'd like things would be better. It's just not realistic and we sadly need to accept that kids have power.
If Campbell doesn't tell Grunk he's the starter; he'd be an idiot to return. He has to have that assurance or he needs to go. Just reality, he can't sit another year--he's ready to play.

Grunk may only get that starting assurance at a 3rd tier P4 school like Purdue for example who are desperate for any talent. His right to leave but he will be on a losing team.

 

[PAgeologist]

Grunk may only get that starting assurance at a 3rd tier P4 school like Purdue for example who are desperate for any talent. His right to leave but he will be on a losing team.

He may get a higher end team to bite, given the right situation. Just as an example, Clemson. I dont know what they got at QB for next year. And they are a team who, in theory, should compete for an ACC title, maybe playoff spot. However, that isn't much different than here.

 

[Phlebitis]

I largely agree with the conventional wisdom on having a qb and his eligibility hopefully tied up for beyond a year. But with portal moves does it really matter all that much ? Quite a few of the CFP teams have transferred in the qb. Quite a few have transferred in a significant percentage of starters. I am not sure there is enough of a sample size to definitively answer that question.
Roster construction, 2025 CFP field

Georgia	90.0%	10.0%
Ohio State	72.0%	28.0%
Oklahoma	68.0%	32.0%
Alabama	62.8%	37.2%
Oregon	57.4%	42.6%
Texas A&M	55.2%	44.8%
Miami	46.4%	53.6%
Texas Tech	36.7%	63.3%
Indiana	34.6%	65.4%
Ole Miss	33.7%	66.3%

Tulane .................................................................................44.5% ............................. 55.5%
JMU......................................................................................57.2%...............................42.8%

Makes me want to root for Georgia.

 

[KingLando]

Grunk may only get that starting assurance at a 3rd tier P4 school like Purdue for example who are desperate for any talent. His right to leave but he will be on a losing team.

Guessing he'd rather play than potentially sit behind Becht. He does well there he can portal again to a top tier p4 school if he wants.

 

[Catch1lion]

Makes me want to root for Georgia.

#1 talent composite makes it a little easier , but I get you . I was surprised how pervasive the portal was among the CFP teams .

 

[KingLando]

Makes me want to root for Georgia.

Same...go Georgia!

 

[Chumboshifko1]

Mensa pollution?

 

[bdgan]

I am not sure about the math. First, each year is renewable. So, you have no guarantees Grunk stays past year 1. So, who gives you the greatest probability to win year one, someone who knows and has been groomed in a give system for 3 years or someone who will be back at the start line? Second, Grunk may have 3 years of eligibility but he is draft eligible in two years.. So, if you take a down year to keep him, you may only have him for one year or two. No guarantees. So, my evaluation is who gives me the most likelihood to win next year? I would argue Becht. If Grunk walks ok. Menske will have sat behind Becht for two years and will likely be ready. If NOT go to the portal for a QB.

I like Grunk. I think he is very talented. However, the overriding question is who gives Campbell the statistically higher probability to win more games next year?

Cignetti is not an idiot. There is a reason he goes to the portal every year for a QB that fits his system, He got Mendoza from Cal for 2.6 millionC last year and parlayed that into a B10 Championship and 1 ranking on the CFP. The very definition of success.

I strongly disagree. OSU and Oregon have been dominating BiG recruiting. Why do they bother since very few freshmen will start and they could all portal the next year? I think the answer is most kids don't enter the portal unless they're looking for PT or a much bigger paycheck. If Grunk gets paid $1 million and has a great year we can pay him more the next year.

Look at the top 10 classes for 2026:

1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
9. A&M
10. Miami

Do you expect those teams to lose most of those kids or that it's all meaningless because you can buy what you need in the transfer portal?

Cignetti caught lightning in a bottle with transfers from an unusually strong JMU team and supplemented that by getting Mendoza this year. It will be interesting to see if he can keep that up with the 49th ranked class in 2025 and the 33rd ranked class in 2026.

 

[Itraindogs]

I strongly disagree. OSU and Oregon have been dominating BiG recruiting. Why do they bother since very few freshmen will start and they could all portal the next year? I think the answer is most kids don't enter the portal unless they're looking for PT or a much bigger paycheck. If Grunk gets paid $1 million and has a great year we can pay him more the next year.

Look at the top 10 classes for 2026:

1. USC
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Notre Dame
5. Ohio State
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. Texas
9. A&M
10. Miami

Do you expect those teams to lose most of those kids or that it's all meaningless because you can buy what you need in the transfer portal?

Cignetti caught lightning in a bottle with transfers from an unusually strong JMU team and supplemented that by getting Mendoza this year. It will be interesting to see if he can keep that up with the 49th ranked class in 2025 and the 33rd ranked class in 2026.

I understand that views vary a great deal on the subject.

We will see what happens at Indiana. Cignetti;s experiment is challenging traditional roster construction and it may or may not be sustainable. I am not in the habit of making predictions. Cignetti's team improved after year one' it did not regress in year two. And if he does get Sorsby, Leavitt. Mestemaker or some other QB that fits his system and surrounds him with players that fit their system and culture they may very well be no drop off. Until Indiana craters I reserve judgement. I find his model intriguing: Evaluate and develop players to fit scheme and culture whether they are in high school or in the portal. I believe Campbell is cut from the same cloth, but only time will tell this. The kiss of death is when a coach, like Dabo, clings to, some antiquated model of avoiding the portal and what amounts to annual free agency.

Now to your main point. Of course, no one is arguing that evaluating, recruiting and developing high school players is not gong to be the mainstay of a program. Its valuable to invest in potential but not at the expense of proven production. The paramount issue is; what gives a team the greatest probability of immediate success;; not in two or three years. That is why In 2025 LSU brought in 18 portal commits; Texas Tech 21, Miami 19, Ole Miss 30, Oregon 11 and the list goes on an on. Its not as if they had no talent in house;. Its that there was talent outside their roster that that they believed improved their chances to succeed the following year. Were there no highly ranked high school recruits in house that they supplanted? Likely not. But the respective staffs believed that that the rosters as they stood did not give them the greatest likelihood of being successful in the coming season if they did not bring in better players through the portal. Did Miam not have a QB in house when they hired Beck and are now back in the portal this year? Likely not. But they did not panic that the existing players would go elsewhere. So, you continue to recruit high school players at the highest level possible with the understanding that the can walk at any time and then you bring in better players whenever it is possible to improve your chances of immediate success. And if the existing players walk, so be it. There are are other players in the portal. Texas is losing four RBs to the portal this year. Do you believe Texas gives a sh*t? They going into this eyes wide open and bring in the next crop of "potential". If it works out cool, if not, bye.

Grunk is a good player. The question is and should be: does he give PSU the best probability to succeed in 2026 in a brand new system? Or, is there an existing player in the portal that does? If so, then for me the decision is a slam dunk. I bring in the portal player. I have zero idea what will happen in year two. None. I continue to recruit at the highest level possible and bring in the best talent i can through the portal and let the chips fall where they may.