Just remember “pigs get slaughtered” and “never catch a falling knife” and you should be good
GYERO
- Thread starter AndyPolleydotcom
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Just remember “pigs get slaughtered” and “never catch a falling knife” and you should be good
Dumping everything into Zion Oil, Beanie Babies, and the Hawk Tuah crypto.
Yeah, might take more than a day or two. Might be time to start looking at bonds at this point.
I’m sure this destabilization of the entire world economy will blow over in no time.
I started reading a bunch of investing and financial books the last 3 years. The psychology of money, the little common sense book of investing, the easy path to wealth, the rational optimist etc etc. They were very interesting and I feel I learned a lot from them tbh. It’s funny, in all of them they talk about this magical 8% return average, but also about all the dips that happen and the sheer panic and overreaction to it etc etc. A lot of them came back to that 8% goal though. Some years you’ll get it, some years you won’t, don’t panic or listen to the dipshit news, just stay the course, time in the market is better than timing the market, here’s why pessimistic people are idiots treated as geniuses etc etc.
I was always a little confused though about the 8% though. Over the last 10 years the S&P grew by 160%, over 5 years 120%, over 2 years 33%, and over the last year by 5% (yesterday it was at 10%). Those were all insane increases we’ve continually had (even with a massive dip for 6 months in 2020 with COVID), that were outside the norm with incredible growth. YTD we’re down 7% but it’s not due to a random pandemic or a complete failure of the bank systems like in 2008 but because of an easily altered or changed policy that is certainly almost not going to be long term. I just felt like posting this in case someone reading this is actually getting stressed reading the news or whatever. It seems (me included as of 3 years ago) the majority of people are really financially illiterate in this country and don’t really understand the markets or their history.
I was always a little confused though about the 8% though. Over the last 10 years the S&P grew by 160%, over 5 years 120%, over 2 years 33%, and over the last year by 5% (yesterday it was at 10%). Those were all insane increases we’ve continually had (even with a massive dip for 6 months in 2020 with COVID), that were outside the norm with incredible growth. YTD we’re down 7% but it’s not due to a random pandemic or a complete failure of the bank systems like in 2008 but because of an easily altered or changed policy that is certainly almost not going to be long term. I just felt like posting this in case someone reading this is actually getting stressed reading the news or whatever. It seems (me included as of 3 years ago) the majority of people are really financially illiterate in this country and don’t really understand the markets or their history.
I always keep a diverse portfolio. Right now it's 50% Gamestop and 50% Texas Roadhouse.
Is there any wiggle room for a glow in the dark putt putt venture?
People also conflate the DJIA with the overall health of our economy and it's more like a prognosticator. It's dipping because it's speculating that a trade war will result in lower consumer confidence and possibly higher inflation, but it doesn't know that to be the case yet.
I used to be a RIA and getting people to understand that the stock market is an excellent financial tool that is best left forgotten (if you are indexing) was a hard ask.
You hit the nail on the head though, you probably won't ever get exactly 8 percent but when you average it out over an extended period that magical number just keeps popping up.
Never underestimate the ignorance of the average American consumer. We’re accustomed to getting what we want, no matter the cost or consequences. We’re American’s by God, we’re a me-me country. If we want a 4,200 inch tv in our trailer, we’re getting that sumofabitch.
I will say this about tariffs, I don't understand how we seem to think it will increase domestic production while also generating trillions in what they are referring to as taxes (at least the treasury secretary has stated this). Those seem to be contradictory assumptions.
Every finance ball I follow thinks it could possibly do one or the other but will likely just drive down demand until someone blinks which will just mean short term pain to people already struggling with no guarantee of positive resolution.
Every finance ball I follow thinks it could possibly do one or the other but will likely just drive down demand until someone blinks which will just mean short term pain to people already struggling with no guarantee of positive resolution.
The goal should be (and I believe it is) NO tariffs between countries. Or at least a more equitable tariff rate between the US and it's trading partners.
Theoretically, it increases production in the US, as companies avoid those tariffs by moving production the US.
All of the tariffs that are paid by importers go directly to the Treasury IIRC, which is what they mean by generating income for the government.
but yes, if the tariffs are just a bargaining chip, then tariff income and domestic production are at odds.
I laugh at folks that throw a hissy over tariffs out of one side of their mouths, while calling for increased corporate taxes out of the other, because corporate taxes are, you know, essentially tariffs.
It's probably all going to be a mute point in less than a year. The American consumer is the life-blood of the world economy (make of that what you will) and most countries will cave in the end. (IMO)
The real culprits are the politicians that got us INTO these absurd trade deals in the first place.
tariff talk/off
Theoretically, it increases production in the US, as companies avoid those tariffs by moving production the US.
All of the tariffs that are paid by importers go directly to the Treasury IIRC, which is what they mean by generating income for the government.
but yes, if the tariffs are just a bargaining chip, then tariff income and domestic production are at odds.
I laugh at folks that throw a hissy over tariffs out of one side of their mouths, while calling for increased corporate taxes out of the other, because corporate taxes are, you know, essentially tariffs.
It's probably all going to be a mute point in less than a year. The American consumer is the life-blood of the world economy (make of that what you will) and most countries will cave in the end. (IMO)
The real culprits are the politicians that got us INTO these absurd trade deals in the first place.
tariff talk/off
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Trade deals or deficits? Because we have about 20 international trade "deals" but primarily operate via the USMCA with Canada and Mexico which was spearheaded by the guy who just signed off on tariffs with Israel (who levies no tariffs against us now), an Island that only has a naval base and an uninhabited island populated only by penguins. And yet, somehow, Belarus and Russia evaded any tariffs?
I noticed the tariff board used during the presentation yesterday listed our trade deficit with each country that we were applying tariffs to but construed it as current tariffs against us. That seems a bit misleading (even though it was titled correctly if hard to read). Given that most non financially literate Americans are already confused about our policies, that type of messaging isn't helping.
If the tariffs are supposed to generate tax revenue and we all know who pays the increased cost, why not just call it a tax hike? I think you'll know why they don't do that.
I'm not against tariffs if they actually serve a purpose (which is to traditionally protect our domestic product) . Blanket tariffs as a means to force pain on our trade partners (with the excuse of fentanyl and illegal immigration) aren't good economics.
Also tariff talk/off
I noticed the tariff board used during the presentation yesterday listed our trade deficit with each country that we were applying tariffs to but construed it as current tariffs against us. That seems a bit misleading (even though it was titled correctly if hard to read). Given that most non financially literate Americans are already confused about our policies, that type of messaging isn't helping.
If the tariffs are supposed to generate tax revenue and we all know who pays the increased cost, why not just call it a tax hike? I think you'll know why they don't do that.
I'm not against tariffs if they actually serve a purpose (which is to traditionally protect our domestic product) . Blanket tariffs as a means to force pain on our trade partners (with the excuse of fentanyl and illegal immigration) aren't good economics.
Also tariff talk/off
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How are the tariffs affecting our performance in the transfer portal? Should we go ahead and annex the portal to cover our bases?
Annex UAB, keep Yaxel, deport the rest, profit.
I sat next to him on a Southwest flight from Albuquerque to LA. He was way shorter than I would have thought, which means Cruise is even shorter than advertised.
The “Liberation Day” messaging for the tariffs was a mistake. Everyone knows the real Liberation Day is a week later, April 9.
I find it’s best to not look at my portfolio but just a handful of times through the years.
Unfortunately I was curious today with all that is going on and took a peek. That was a mistake,
Oh well, it will come back eventually.Oui, oui, mon frere. Jaron-Pierre is everywhere!
Sea monkeys, like gold, always hold their value over time.
Thoughts and prayers to all who had their Keeneland plans disrupted. April showers and all..
No tariffs with Israel. Zion Oil is going to crush it.
Any of you GYERO Esquires want to recommend someone that practices estate law? I wanna get a bunch of stuff in order in the next few months. I'm not dying (that I know of at least), but age combined with a largely improvident lifestyle means I should probably knock this out. just message me.
Lowe, Pierre, Yaxel and Mgbako/Bowen would be a nice haul IMO.
You didn't lose a cent if you didn't sell today and if you did sell today, maybe buy some velcro shoes, too.
That sounds like an eclectic law firm.
Yep, I heard all this on todays KSR.
From the onset of Covid, when the Dow fell from (iirc) 32K to 22K, I went 2+ years without checking my 401k balance. Vowed not to check it until the Dow got to about 30k again, and didn't.
Unless you have to check it, I strongly recommend ignoring it. I'd say almost nobody who reads this is getting ready to retire this month, so spare yourself the rollercoaster ride.
Unless you have to check it, I strongly recommend ignoring it. I'd say almost nobody who reads this is getting ready to retire this month, so spare yourself the rollercoaster ride.
Matt routinely calling Broome “Johnny” and Ryan butchering names like “Soyhoy” Ohtani and calling Brea “Bobby Abreu” is rubbing off of you, You should read a book sometime instead.
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I’m seeing a ton of UK sports media on social media flooding their timelines pointing out how last season’s portal players weren’t highly rated for the most part.
No offense to the guys from this past season, but Pope is in deep **** if the roster he put together in a month turns out similar to what he’s had a year to build.
Whether we like it or not, plucky overachieving teams won’t keep fans happy here because they just don’t tend to compete for Final Fours or titles. UK fans will never accept our program having a talent deficiency becoming the norm.
Not that I am predicting Pope won’t put together an elite portal haul this year. Who the hell knows at this point. My point is I’m seeing some Tubby Smith circa 2006 level spin for why fans shouldn’t expect an elite roster.
No offense to the guys from this past season, but Pope is in deep **** if the roster he put together in a month turns out similar to what he’s had a year to build.
Whether we like it or not, plucky overachieving teams won’t keep fans happy here because they just don’t tend to compete for Final Fours or titles. UK fans will never accept our program having a talent deficiency becoming the norm.
Not that I am predicting Pope won’t put together an elite portal haul this year. Who the hell knows at this point. My point is I’m seeing some Tubby Smith circa 2006 level spin for why fans shouldn’t expect an elite roster.
If they had stayed healthy, this year's team definitely competes for a Final Four.
You are correct, it will do both. Assuming most countries do not lower their tariffs we will collect a lot of money, until production ramps up in the US and demand for foreign goods lessens lowering the tariff revenue intake.
We had 9 guys from the portal last season with a 4 star and two 3 star recruits. The highest ranked transfer was Garrison.
This year we have 5 returning players and a recruiting class of two 5 and one 4 star recruits ranked in the composit top 10. Our first portal commit is higher ranked than all but one or two guys in last year's transfer group. One of those returning players will probably get some pre-season All American honors.
This is all before Pope even started team building last season. A year ago today, our basketball coach was working out contract details with the school he would move to and CMP was locked in at BYU. Pope was hired April 13, and we have a huge head start on that.
The hand wringing over recruiting is fairly ridiculous IMHO.
Also, the number one overall seed had something like the 37th ranked recruiting class and 54th ranked portal class last season. Some of y'all need to get rid of the Calipari mindset of team building.
The obligatory "someone is shorter than I imagined" post. Kilmer was 5'11/6'......Cruise is in the 5'7 range.
Happy April 4th! Arguably the greatest ending to an NCAA championship game ever (for multiple reasons).