125 70
133 75
141 40
149 60
157 60
165 100
174 100
184 100 GA or AF
197 5
285 75
what says you
133 75
141 40
149 60
157 60
165 100
174 100
184 100 GA or AF
197 5
285 75
what says you
Hawk AA percentages
- Thread starter Sunshinedynomite 1
- Start date
A little high percentage for several weights imho
Umm, that’s a very optimistic prediction.
125 40%
133 60%
141 5%
149 30%
157 10%
165 95%
174 85%
184 90%
197 1%
285 50% injuries alone keep anybody from being 100%. Short of an injury 165,174, and 184 are pretty much locks. 285 would have been too without the injury. Drake would be higher but 133 is so deep with amazing talent.
125 60
133 65
141 Who’s even wrestling? Nasir = 35
149 35
157 Who’s even wrestling? Williams = 20
165 99
174 85
184 Who’s even wrestling? Seriously.
Healthy Ferrari = 98, Arnold = 60
197 Who’s even wrestling? Arnold = 5
285 60
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I think Peterson and 165-184 will get it. Ayala has looked much better and after the last two NCAAs, think he finds a way. Actually think Bailey will as well if his hand is fixed, his gas tank got better the last month. Kueter I'll say no unless he shows some semblance of offense. Nobody at heavyweight has any reason to worry about him at this point, he isn't even a threat to try and take them down let alone do it. Block only has one win in the B10, and while he's right there a lot, he only has the double blast and if it doesn't work, he hasn't shown much else. But the weight is there for the taking. Both Block and Kueter can win any match even with one takedown, but they have to actually get it done and they haven't. If they do it in March, they will crack the top 8, if they don't I can't see either even reaching the blood round.
125 20%
133 33%
141 10%
149 25%
157 20%
165 95%
174 85%
184 95%
197 0%
285 33%
133 33%
141 10%
149 25%
157 20%
165 95%
174 85%
184 95%
197 0%
285 33%
97 will be Arnold. He is the best person on the team at that weight, and he will be watching from the bench otherwise. Chances of AA are >1% that others predict.
How do you even see 197 qualifying for NCAA's?
Here are some B10 records heading into Sunday:
1-3 125 Peterson
2-5 133 Ayala
1-3 141 Bailey
1-5 149 Block
1-4 157 Williams
0-3 197 Sampson
2-3 285 Krueter
Kennedy is the only Hawkeye undefeated.
Here are some B10 records heading into Sunday:
1-3 125 Peterson
2-5 133 Ayala
1-3 141 Bailey
1-5 149 Block
1-4 157 Williams
0-3 197 Sampson
2-3 285 Krueter
Kennedy is the only Hawkeye undefeated.
We ain't even qualifying at 197 unless Gabe ends up there. sigh
Wild. 7 of 10 starters with a losing record in the Big ten.
That comes to 7.85 AA's. Perhaps a bit rosy.
Based on the latest Flo and Intermat I put it at 4.5 with the following probabilities:
So I guess I am saying I would take the under on every one of your numbers.
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Much more realistic though I’m still not sold on 40 percent at 125 only because we haven’t seen him enough to give him 40.
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For giggles I decided to see how many points a team with those AA probabilities was likely to score, and it was 116. Another number I will take the under on.
His predictions add up to more AAs than FLO or Intermat rankings would give Hawks.Says the Penn St fan
People need to get better at statistics. A guy ranked 7th has less than a 50% chance to AA if you do the math over the years. @Wrestleknownothing would know better than I, but id guess that you probably need to be ranked 5th to o even have a better than 50% chance of placing.
Based on current Intermat rankings and head to head results, my current anticipated BT seeds for Iowa.
The next list is projected NCAA seed, if they finish at BT seed. All conference champions in other conferences are seeded above Iowa.
BT Seeds
125 #3
133 #5
141 #6
149 #5
157 #7
165 #2
174 #2
184 #3
197 #6 Arnold
285 #6
NCAA’s
125 #7
133 #9
141 #15
149 #14
157 #14
165 #3
174 #4
184 #4
197 #17
285 #9
The next list is projected NCAA seed, if they finish at BT seed. All conference champions in other conferences are seeded above Iowa.
BT Seeds
125 #3
133 #5
141 #6
149 #5
157 #7
165 #2
174 #2
184 #3
197 #6 Arnold
285 #6
NCAA’s
125 #7
133 #9
141 #15
149 #14
157 #14
165 #3
174 #4
184 #4
197 #17
285 #9
7 was higher than I expected and 3 is lower than I expected. But it proves a point- if you have a guy ranked 6 and a guy ranked 7, odds are that only one of them is placing.
That’s a 4 AA year if those seeds hold for NCAAs. 5 would be good and 6 would have MSU inking TnT to a 20-year extension.
The sad thing is 2-3 weeks ago I thought we would have 7 in the quarterfinals. In analyzing, trends are fairly accurate and predictable.
We aren’t trending the right way in regard to where our guys get seeded at Nationals.
Back at national duals, the narrative was OSU was peaking and things would look different in February. Now that February is here, the same people are saying wait until March. There’s nothing to show the Hawks are trending in the right direction, and seeding has the potential to make March a bloodbath
I said as much in another thread, but yeah that was rationale in November - fOSU took it more seriously than we did, we forfeited a weight, we'll be better when it counts, etc. That's why we lost by 15 then, but it would be a different story in February.
Well, in February, with a full lineup and months to improve and prepare, we went out and.....lost by 15 again
Iowa could lose the finals streak with a few tough seeds and a less than stellar BIGs. Mikey and Angelo being the only realistic possibilities. 133 is just too stacked for Drake.
The thing about Ayala is that:
1) he's done it before in March (twice)
2) 133 is full of landmines....for everyone else as well
I could definitely see a scenario where Ayala doesn't place, but I could also see a scenario where the path opens up for Ayala due to upsets happening everywhere else. 133 is going to be a bonkers weight this year and while Ayala has a tough road ahead of him, truly anything can happen there that I'm not ready to count him out just yet
If anyone can, it is Drake. If Mikey places 3rd or doesnt have a good big 10 tournament, he could slip to 4th at nationals and face MM in the semis. A tall task indeed. 184 is anyone's guess and will probably be the most boring bracket in the tournament. Rocco has shown some life with activity recently but the top 4 or 5 guys love the "1-1 SV is fine with me" strategy (puke).
Problem is going to be when Ayala and Keuter end up seeded like 8/9. You can mark 197 as 0 unless GA bumps up. 184 is not 100 if GA is there. I have big concerns about Kennedy losing a match he shouldn't early at nationals due to playing with fire with this 2-1 crap.
I’ll take a stab at odds of being a 2026 NCAA finalist:
125 10% (assuming healthy Peterson)
133 10%
141 5% (assuming healthy Bailey)
149 3%
157 1% (assuming healthy Williams)
165 45%
174 20%
184 40% (assuming healthy Ferrari)
197 3% (assuming Arnold)
285 5%
Based on this, it seems like we end up with a finalist or two.
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So what does it take for TnT to get another year in your eyes? I know a some of you may say nothing should get them another season, you guys can ignore my question.
A champ, multiple finalists, and a top 3 team finish at both big tens and NCAAs and I can be on board with another year, but a short leash. If we’d been performing closer to winning it the past 4 years (really the past 15 years except 1) and hadn’t lost so many duals this year, this standard for one post season would seem crazy. But we haven’t been all that close to winning nationals as a team in the last 15 years, except the one year we actually won it 5 years ago. This is Iowa wrestling and the standard is incredibly high here so I think we need exceptional results in a hurry to keep TnT around. Really, we should have moved on already.
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That’s like our typical results. So, you’re essentially satisfied with the current status quo? And what if we meet that but finish 5th as a team?
We began the season with 5 of 10 starters being high profile, highly paid transfers. Given that, I would think the expectation would be for more like 7-8 AAs.
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I’m not saying this great. It’s just my prediction. I’m in the camp for change.
The top 4 seeds currently at 133 in any order:
Byrd
Blaze
Davino
Forrest
The Big Ten tournament is going to muck this all up.
Then it probably ends up
1. Big Ten Champ (my guess Blaze)
2. Forrest
3. Seidel
4. Byrd
5. Davino
6. Frost
7. Davis ( So Con champ 1 loss)
8-11. EIWA, IVY and MAC Champs. You still have Larkin ASU, Serrano N Colorado as two loss guys. Where is Knox of Stanford as ACC Runner-up?
If Drake losses to Jax in the dual and Fugitt at BT finishing 5th, he is way down the line.
DA needs to finish top 3 at BT Tourney, just to have a chance at making the NCAA semifinal. I don’t know much about Seidel? My guess is wrestling him is the best path as either the 6 or 11 seed?
133 is going to be a lot of fun for wrestling fans.
**edit Va Tech wrestles Okie State Feb. 15th. We could see Forrest vs. Siedel
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Seidel is the real deal imo
Grip I have been called a boot licking, ball sucking TNT enthusiast for years on this forum. Defending them on numerous occasions, while occasionally voicing my frustrations. I am not the guy to say TNT have to go, they suck and are an embarrassment to Iowa Wrestling. It’s not my place.
I have stuck to my guns as a loyalist up until the Iowa State dual this year and the duals since. Not attending the Soldier Salute and wrestling the way we did against Wisconsin was a kick in the nuts.
What has happened this year is beyond concerning from a style/technique perspective. I am watching most of our guys regress and not be able to compete consistently with any type of dominance against competition we have dominated for decades.
What gives them another year is making changes to staff and putting a succession plan in place. What John Smith was doing at Okie State, before they struck gold and all the stars aligned to get Taylor.
It’s been tough going to home duals this year. This is the first time in my life I have not seen Carver magic created by the performance of our team. To experience a euphoric feeling created by enthusiasm from the style and performance of our team.
I think they deserve to go out on their own terms and to be honored for their contributions and hard work.
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