excerpts:
Yahoo Sports got different answers from different people on this issue. The Big 12's current television contract ends after the 2024 football season. It’s highly unlikely Texas and Oklahoma would want to slog through four seasons, as it’s a miserable experience for everyone when teams leave leagues.
A break-up like this is much like a divorce – nasty, expensive and endlessly complicated. Big 12 rules say that for a school to leave, the buyout is two years of television revenue. That would mean nearly $150 million combined for both schools. Do they pay that or broker a deal? Expect an agreement of some kind, as SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s comment on focusing on the 2021 season has been interpreted that this could happen soon after that. As usual, the lawyers will be the big winners.
The timeline for Texas and Oklahoma to inform the Big 12 of their intentions could be as soon as a week from now. The longer things linger, the more obstacles could get in the way......
Expect the Big 12 to be aggressive in adding schools. It'll knock on doors at Arizona and Arizona State. Perhaps it'll try and lure Colorado back and pry Utah. The Pac-12 is weak now, but the core of USC, Oregon, UCLA and Washington are all more attractive to be aligned with than any of the Big 12 schools.
From there, the Big 12 will decide how big it wants to get. It has to decide whether to add two, four or six schools. Four seems like the most reasonable number, with Cincinnati, UCF, USF, BYU and Boise State the most likely candidates from outside the state of Texas. The potential addition of Houston and SMU becomes complicated, as Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech wouldn’t have much interest in more in-state competition.
Remember, it’s streaming subscriptions, not cable boxes, that matter most. BYU would appear to have the best option for that, with its national following. But BYU is always complicated, which prevented the Big 12 from adding it in 2016 when the Cougars' complicated LGBTQ history became a factor.
UCF and USF have great markets, but would the Big 12 want two Florida footholds? Cincinnati is a preseason Top 10 team that has been working hard behind the scenes to build for this moment. It also brings a big market and fertile recruiting area.
This is all sub-optimal for the American Athletic Conference, as it'll be a familiar trickle-down. In a similar food chain fallout that followed the ACC cannibalizing the Big East a decade ago, the Big 12 will go after the most attractive AAC candidates. The AAC will do its best to hold on to its top programs but a reconstructed Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma should offer a more attractive financial landing spot than the current AAC.
The remaining BIG 12 schools cannot let those two just walk without the harshest penalties possible--mainly because they'll need the money going forward but also because the two have both held back the league in progressing and signed contracts to pay if they did this.
Yahoo Sports got different answers from different people on this issue. The Big 12's current television contract ends after the 2024 football season. It’s highly unlikely Texas and Oklahoma would want to slog through four seasons, as it’s a miserable experience for everyone when teams leave leagues.
A break-up like this is much like a divorce – nasty, expensive and endlessly complicated. Big 12 rules say that for a school to leave, the buyout is two years of television revenue. That would mean nearly $150 million combined for both schools. Do they pay that or broker a deal? Expect an agreement of some kind, as SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s comment on focusing on the 2021 season has been interpreted that this could happen soon after that. As usual, the lawyers will be the big winners.
The timeline for Texas and Oklahoma to inform the Big 12 of their intentions could be as soon as a week from now. The longer things linger, the more obstacles could get in the way......
What's next for the Big 12?
The league is beginning to discuss contingencies Thursday, as it’s obvious that this would be a devastating blow.Expect the Big 12 to be aggressive in adding schools. It'll knock on doors at Arizona and Arizona State. Perhaps it'll try and lure Colorado back and pry Utah. The Pac-12 is weak now, but the core of USC, Oregon, UCLA and Washington are all more attractive to be aligned with than any of the Big 12 schools.
From there, the Big 12 will decide how big it wants to get. It has to decide whether to add two, four or six schools. Four seems like the most reasonable number, with Cincinnati, UCF, USF, BYU and Boise State the most likely candidates from outside the state of Texas. The potential addition of Houston and SMU becomes complicated, as Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech wouldn’t have much interest in more in-state competition.
Remember, it’s streaming subscriptions, not cable boxes, that matter most. BYU would appear to have the best option for that, with its national following. But BYU is always complicated, which prevented the Big 12 from adding it in 2016 when the Cougars' complicated LGBTQ history became a factor.
UCF and USF have great markets, but would the Big 12 want two Florida footholds? Cincinnati is a preseason Top 10 team that has been working hard behind the scenes to build for this moment. It also brings a big market and fertile recruiting area.
This is all sub-optimal for the American Athletic Conference, as it'll be a familiar trickle-down. In a similar food chain fallout that followed the ACC cannibalizing the Big East a decade ago, the Big 12 will go after the most attractive AAC candidates. The AAC will do its best to hold on to its top programs but a reconstructed Big 12 without Texas and Oklahoma should offer a more attractive financial landing spot than the current AAC.
The remaining BIG 12 schools cannot let those two just walk without the harshest penalties possible--mainly because they'll need the money going forward but also because the two have both held back the league in progressing and signed contracts to pay if they did this.
