The loss hurt many of us badly, but my guess is it didn't hurt NU at all. They lost in OT on a last-second shot against a near-tourney team in one of the best conferences in America. This is not like losing to Minnesota or Merrimack or Eastern Illinois.
Using bracketmatrix, I've identified 24 teams that are "on the bubble." Caveats apply - bracketmatrix hasn't been updated since the loss, my methodology is shoddy, etc. Still, I'm not worried.
The following 24 teams have at least one bracket in which the team is seeded 10th or 11th (or not at all). As of today, 18 of these teams would be in. Meaning the wrong side of the bubble is only six deep. Yes, there will be bid thieves, and some teams will play themselves into contention in the next week, but we're not talking about 30 teams ready to move up and knock NU all the way down.
NU IS AHEAD OF ALL OF THESE TEAMS, as a sixth seed. My guess is they could drop at the next update, but even then they probably won't have any prognostication of 10 or 11. And the Rutgers game, even if it's an embarrassment, is still a road loss to an NCAA team that's tough to beat at home. They're not going to drop 20 spots with that loss.
8 seeds - Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Providence
9 seeds - Missouri, Rutgers, Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh
10 seeds - North Carolina St., Auburn, Boise St., Nevada
11 seeds - USC, Memphis, West Virginia, Mississippi St., Arizona State, Wisconsin
On the outside: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Michigan, Utah St., Clemson, Penn State
Keep in mind that every one of these teams is likely to lose between now and selection Sunday, and if they WIN their conference tourneys, chances are a team ranked ahead of NU already is going to get the at-large owed to them. If any of that last group of six get hot and win their conference tourney, who are they taking it from? One of those 11 seeds. Michigan or Penn State winning the Big Ten will probably knock Wisconsin out, not some NU team that lost its last five games in a row. It's just too far to drop. Clemson/North Carolina can't both win the ACC tourney, and if they meet in the finals, it might mean that NC State or Pittsburgh lost early, and they are closer to the bottom than NU.
Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? Conference-USA is the most obvious choice, as FAU is the only good team and is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney. If Utah State makes a run in the MWC, would they get an invite in addition to Boise State and Nevada, or at the expense of one of them?
So long story short (too late), yeah, NU can drop, but it's only going to drop a little. My prediction is an eight seed at worst, with a seven still reasonable (and a six still on the table).
Using bracketmatrix, I've identified 24 teams that are "on the bubble." Caveats apply - bracketmatrix hasn't been updated since the loss, my methodology is shoddy, etc. Still, I'm not worried.
The following 24 teams have at least one bracket in which the team is seeded 10th or 11th (or not at all). As of today, 18 of these teams would be in. Meaning the wrong side of the bubble is only six deep. Yes, there will be bid thieves, and some teams will play themselves into contention in the next week, but we're not talking about 30 teams ready to move up and knock NU all the way down.
NU IS AHEAD OF ALL OF THESE TEAMS, as a sixth seed. My guess is they could drop at the next update, but even then they probably won't have any prognostication of 10 or 11. And the Rutgers game, even if it's an embarrassment, is still a road loss to an NCAA team that's tough to beat at home. They're not going to drop 20 spots with that loss.
8 seeds - Illinois, Iowa, Arkansas, Providence
9 seeds - Missouri, Rutgers, Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh
10 seeds - North Carolina St., Auburn, Boise St., Nevada
11 seeds - USC, Memphis, West Virginia, Mississippi St., Arizona State, Wisconsin
On the outside: Oklahoma St., North Carolina, Michigan, Utah St., Clemson, Penn State
Keep in mind that every one of these teams is likely to lose between now and selection Sunday, and if they WIN their conference tourneys, chances are a team ranked ahead of NU already is going to get the at-large owed to them. If any of that last group of six get hot and win their conference tourney, who are they taking it from? One of those 11 seeds. Michigan or Penn State winning the Big Ten will probably knock Wisconsin out, not some NU team that lost its last five games in a row. It's just too far to drop. Clemson/North Carolina can't both win the ACC tourney, and if they meet in the finals, it might mean that NC State or Pittsburgh lost early, and they are closer to the bottom than NU.
Bid thieves are a real thing, but where are they coming from? Conference-USA is the most obvious choice, as FAU is the only good team and is good enough to get an at-large without winning its tourney. If Utah State makes a run in the MWC, would they get an invite in addition to Boise State and Nevada, or at the expense of one of them?
So long story short (too late), yeah, NU can drop, but it's only going to drop a little. My prediction is an eight seed at worst, with a seven still reasonable (and a six still on the table).
