How did our program fall apart?

[ballerog711]

Basketball they are concepts for offense, basically middle is open for players to make plays.
You have screens coming off of multiple angles and players would read the defense.

 

[NJCat]

Do you really think it was anything but academics?

Yes, I think it was the total package of NU not giving a crap about sports.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Yes, I think it was the total package of NU not giving a crap about sports.

I don’t think your view is accurate.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1986-04-02-8601240342-story.html

 

[Sec_112]

First, one thing I have a problem with is the same people arguing for CCC because he reached the tourney then argue getting back, or even close, is unrealistic ...

Where did anyone say that in this thread?

 

[combes]

The Illini have the highest winning percentage (.639) and most seasons over .500 (100) in B1G history yet have never had a top 20 recruit.

Marcus Liberty was ranked #1 by several publications and no lower than 3rd.

Lowell Hamilton was a top ten recruit as was Nick Weatherspoon.

Nick Anderson was just outside the top ten at #12.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Where did anyone say that in this thread?

In Bali so not archive digging. It has been said here many times.

 

[GatoLouco]

Do you really know what went down with Kopp? What if NU admissions told Collins that he was the one he needed to offer first (after Saddiq Bey)? Kopp was obviously a miss, but how can you even be sure it was all Collins’ fault, especially knowing a blue blood program took a chance on him AFTER he played with Collins for 3 years? Maybe Collins got more out of him than others would have?

You use the word skeptical a lot. Are you (and PWB) skeptical or cynical when it comes to Collins? It’s pretty obvious to most which one.

I don’t see the problem of being skeptical. I don’t know, you don’t know. But I am surely not going to drink the cool aid and put it all on the kid by default just because he left. The fact is he was one of the best SO in the league. And then it all went to poop. That’s a fact.

 

[GatoLouco]

To think one tourney would automatically propel the program to long term success is naive NU thinking similar to the idea that the academics are some incredible basketball differentiator.

I think you are right here. But there is some middle point from “long term success” to dumpster fire. And we are the latter.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I don’t think your view is accurate.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1986-04-02-8601240342-story.html

How is Jim Calhoun's decision to pass on the Northwestern coaching job in 1986 relevant to anything today?
We all know NU has tougher admissions requirements.
That doesn't make a bad coach a better coach.

 

[Secho99]

If it wasn’t for bad luck

Speaking of that, here's NU's national ranking in the "luck" rating via KenPom the last 5 seasons (out of roughly 355 teams per season):

21-22: 331
20-21: 331
19-20: 334
18-19: 348
17-18: 326

That's solidly in the bottom 10% every year. But the "luck" rating isn't really so much about luck, it's how much better or worse your winning percentage is versus what it should be based on your team's offensive and defensive ratings. Our W-L record has been consistently worse than our overall performance. And this isn't surprising, given how many games we can all think of where we had late leads and couldn't put it away.

If you have a down year in this metric, it could be reasonably attributed to getting unlucky in a few close games. But 5 years in a row seems kind of hard to dismiss as just bad luck. And it definitely doesn't have anything to do with admissions or any other obstacles NU faces. This is just about actual results versus expectation given the ability of the roster.

Now, if you actually look at this in wins and losses, you can use the luck rating to project what our record should have been. Since 17-18, our W-L record overall has been 60-90. Our expected record over that span is 73-77. It's a significant difference, but still under .500, so it's not like we had tournament-quality teams anyway.

 

[GatoLouco]

Here's a fun view of our "we have improved our record" over the last 3 years BS our coach is selling:

2021 - 6 wins - tough schedule
Wins against mediocre teams - 1 (UNL)
Wins against competitive teams - 5 (MSU, IN, OSU, UMN, MD)

2022 - 7 wins - easy schedule for B1G standards
Wins against mediocre teams - 3 (UNL X 2, UMN)
Wins against competitive teams - 4 (MD, MSU, RU, IN)

We win less games against proper teams in 2022 than in 2021. What an improvement.

 

[NUCat320]

How is Jim Calhoun's decision to pass on the Northwestern coaching job in 1986 relevant to anything today?
We all know NU has tougher admissions requirements.
That doesn't make a bad coach a better coach.

In 1986, I was way into M.A.S.K. action figures. They were like Transformers, except they were normal dudes who had shape-changing vehicles. There was a motorcycle that turned into a helicopter, and an 18 wheeler that turned into a tank.

It’s all very relevant to today.

Tommy Amaker handed two transcripts to NU administration, asked if he could get those kids into NU. They said no. He said “you just turned down Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley.” I was pretty into The Mighty Mighty BossTones when that story happened. It’s slightly less relevant.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

In 1986, I was way into M.A.S.K. action figures. They were like Transformers, except they were normal dudes who had shape-changing vehicles. There was a motorcycle that turned into a helicopter, and an 18 wheeler that turned into a tank.

It’s all very relevant to today.

Tommy Amaker handed two transcripts to NU administration, asked if he could get those kids into NU. They said no. He said “you just turned down Christian Laettner and Bobby Hurley.” I was pretty into The Mighty Mighty BossTones when that story happened. It’s slightly less relevant.

And everybody knows that Duke has the biggest academic disparity between its basketball players and the general student population in all of Division 1.

When Johnny Dawkins took the Stanford job, the media made sure to mockingly point out that he was not going to be able to get a bunch of Duke-calibre players past Stanford admissions.

 

[Sec_112]

In Bali so not archive digging. It has been said here many times.

The discussion in this thread was not that it's unrealistic to expect the program to "get back" or even "get close" to the tournament. The discussion was about how realistic a "long run of success" is.

To me, that's two totally different conversations.

In the end, neither is happening.

 

[Sec_112]

I think you are right here. But there is some middle point from “long term success” to dumpster fire. And we are the latter.

100% agree.

Anyhow, for me, the repetitive pain of this ongoing discussion is not where we are now. It's to get realistic about what is needed going forward.

For too long, this has been a discussion only about in-game coaching. Yes, that's a problem. But to ignore the poor recruiting choices, the well-established systemic issues and the cultural fit is just asking to drive down the value of the program even more. Then to place ridiculous expectations on the next coach like this is just any other job: a) scares even more strong candidates away, and; b) adds a another layer to the challenges of the job.

If a coaching candidate (or someone close to the hiring process for that matter) believes he can win with a similar level off recruiting to CC because of "his system," I don't want them anywhere near the program or this discussion. That's just begging for another decade of the same ol', same ol'. It shows they don't truly understand the gig.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The discussion in this thread was not that it's unrealistic to expect the program to "get back" or even "get close" to the tournament. The discussion was about how realistic a "long run of success" is.

To me, that's two totally different conversations.

In the end, neither is happening.

If you are saying that NU won't get back to the NCAA bubble, I will gladly take the other side.
Maybe I am mis-interpreting.
Basketball is a lot easier than football. All it takes it 2 good players a year and a good coach.

 

[NUCat320]

100% agree.

Anyhow, for me, the repetitive pain of this ongoing discussion is not where we are now. It's to get realistic about what is needed going forward.

For too long, this has been a discussion only about in-game coaching. Yes, that's a problem. But to ignore the poor recruiting choices, the well-established systemic issues and the cultural fit is just asking to drive down the value of the program even more. Then to place ridiculous expectations on the next coach like this is just any other job: a) scares even more strong candidates away, and; b) adds a another layer to the challenges of the job.

If a coaching candidate (or someone close to the hiring process for that matter) believes he can win with a similar level off recruiting to CC because of "his system," I don't want them anywhere near the program or this discussion. That's just begging for another decade of the same ol', same ol'. It shows they don't truly understand the gig.

I don’t think there’s a person that has ‘ridiculous’ expectations of any NU men’s basketball coach.

For me, it’s ‘get to a point where NU is competing for the NIT in four years’ — and then, and here’s where CCC failed — stay there.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Players don't leave basketball programs unless they are unhappy with their situation, relative to their expectations.

Was Anthony Gaines a pro prospect? No. He decided to go to grad school at Siena, closer to home. On paper, thats not a smart decision.

Barret Benson was intelligent enough to graduate NU in 3 years. Instead of sticking around, he left to go to grad school at SIU, where he could get more playing time. On paper thats a bad move.

Ryan Young finished his degree and sought better opportunities. He found one at Duke. Having been shortchanged by his coach, he felt no desire to stick around. Smart move.

Pete Nance tested the NBA waters and learned that playing out of position is not good for one's draft prospects. He went to a far better situation at North Carolina, where he could make up for lost time (developmentally).

Rapolas Ivanauskas was the prototype for Pete Nance. Stretch 4-5. A lanky 6'10", pretty good shooter. Collins redshirted him, then he got hurt, got buried on the bench. His father decided that Collins had no idea what he was doing. Son left NU to become Patriot League player of the year the following season. He's in his 3rd year of European play.

Casey Simmons arrived in Evanston with a lot of fanfare. After a single year in which his playing time diminished, he left to go to Yale. Who knows what promises were made when he was recruited? Who knows what the coaches told him during the summer to convince him to pursue that Yale diploma...

Miller Kopp was supposed to be a team leader. He played heavy minutes for 3 years and then abruptly transferred to a school with less academic prestige. An odd move... and he criticized Collins on his way out the door.

The story on Doug Collins was that he took credit for wins and blamed the players for losses.
And his teams turned on him.

The story on Chris Collins a couple years ago was that "the word is out that he's in over his head."

If both Matt Nicholson and Luke Hunger stay out of the transfer portal after this season, I'll be surprised.

I guess that CCC sure is a ****** Coach.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Yes, he did. But that was back when McGraw had a dirt track and there were no practice facilities. Apart from academic requirements NU is not at a disadvantage to anyone today.

Apart from being the worst BBall in history NU is not at a disadvantage to anyone today?

 

[ballerog711]

If you want to win have to stop playing by the rules. Have to turn the other cheek when looking at academics and spend more money recruiting. Learn how to bend the rules with recruits.

Fun with Finances 2.0: Basketball Budgets Revisited — Three-Man-Weave

Jim is BACK with his examination of college basketball budgets! Using data from the COVID-affected season of 2020-21, who are the biggest financial powerhouses in the college hoop landscape?

www.three-man-weave.com

 

[ballerog711]

Take 1 million from the football stadium money.. create nil deals for 3 really good players and you will win.

It goes against the ethics of NU and that's why the school is special.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Speaking of that, here's NU's national ranking in the "luck" rating via KenPom the last 5 seasons (out of roughly 355 teams per season):

21-22: 331
20-21: 331
19-20: 334
18-19: 348
17-18: 326

That's solidly in the bottom 10% every year. But the "luck" rating isn't really so much about luck, it's how much better or worse your winning percentage is versus what it should be based on your team's offensive and defensive ratings. Our W-L record has been consistently worse than our overall performance. And this isn't surprising, given how many games we can all think of where we had late leads and couldn't put it away.

If you have a down year in this metric, it could be reasonably attributed to getting unlucky in a few close games. But 5 years in a row seems kind of hard to dismiss as just bad luck. And it definitely doesn't have anything to do with admissions or any other obstacles NU faces. This is just about actual results versus expectation given the ability of the roster.

Now, if you actually look at this in wins and losses, you can use the luck rating to project what our record should have been. Since 17-18, our W-L record overall has been 60-90. Our expected record over that span is 73-77. It's a significant difference, but still under .500, so it's not like we had tournament-quality teams anyway.

Rankings prior to that were:

16-17: 135
15-16: 178
14-15: 161
13-14: 101
12-13: 241

I highly doubt this statistic can be useful in a one-dimensional manner. It would be very hard to believe CCC (and his main man Brian James) got a lot worse over the years in how they managed close games. We stay close because they are well-coached; we lose close games because we don’t have those types of players relative to other BIG teams.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Here's a fun view of our "we have improved our record" over the last 3 years BS our coach is selling:

2021 - 6 wins - tough schedule
Wins against mediocre teams - 1 (UNL)
Wins against competitive teams - 5 (MSU, IN, OSU, UMN, MD)

2022 - 7 wins - easy schedule for B1G standards
Wins against mediocre teams - 3 (UNL X 2, UMN)
Wins against competitive teams - 4 (MD, MSU, RU, IN)

We win less games against proper teams in 2022 than in 2021. What an improvement.

It should be said again: Collins has 6 of the 10 highest SRS (composite of point differential and strength of schedule) ratings in NU BBall history. (Of his 9 seasons, all but his first two and 19-20 are included).

Others in Top 10: Carmody - 1; Byrdsong - 1; KON - 1; Rohr - 1

To your point, 2022’s rating is slightly lower than 2021. But, I believe if you remove the Iowa blowout (which is truly an outlier), it’s as good / better.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Rankings prior to that were:

16-17: 135
15-16: 178
14-15: 161
13-14: 101
12-13: 241

I highly doubt this statistic can be useful in a one-dimensional manner. It would be very hard to believe CCC (and his main man Brian James) got a lot worse over the years in how they managed close games. We stay close because they are well-coached; we lose close games because we don’t have those types of players relative to other BIG teams.

On the other hand, Sanjay Lumpkin was a leader on the court and calming influence from 2013-2017. I think I'll give him all the credit. Or maybe it was the dynamic duo of McIntosh and Lumpkin... Certainly McIntosh regularly ignored the play he was told to run, or "improvised" in crunch time... but he needed Lumpkin too... Makes as much sense as your theory that we're well-coached.

Actually, my theory makes more sense.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I knew I’d strike a nerve with “well-coached”…

Please feel free to dispute my subsequent post’s supporting facts with some facts of your own.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I knew I’d strike a nerve with “well-coached”…

Please feel free to dispute my subsequent post’s supporting facts with some facts of your own.

I'm not questioning your facts. The luck ratings are what they are.
I'm questioning your conclusions. Could be a multitude of reasons.

But it is difficult to argue that the last 5 years of consistently "bad luck" (statistically speaking) isn't largely on Collins - whether its his coaching, our stategy, our substitution patterns, the type of players we recruit, the psychology of the team... could be a lot of things, but Collins controls most of them.

 

[GatoLouco]

Rankings prior to that were:

16-17: 135
15-16: 178
14-15: 161
13-14: 101
12-13: 241

I highly doubt this statistic can be useful in a one-dimensional manner. It would be very hard to believe CCC (and his main man Brian James) got a lot worse over the years in how they managed close games. We stay close because they are well-coached; we lose close games because we don’t have those types of players relative to other BIG teams.

I’ve believed, for quite a while, that McIntosh balanced the poor coaching on the sidelines with on court coaching. And then, after experiencing success, the egos could not get along and it all crumbled.

 

[ballerog711]

NU coaches go to the EYBL, Adidas! UA and the Circuit tournaments during live period (these are the big ones)

They identify players they want to recruit and start to build a relationship and make an offer.

Before a recruit can take an official visit, the transcript has to be sent to the school and approved. So NU misses out on a bunch of recruits on this step.

Then the recruits that qualify go visit the school. They get winded and dined, tour the school, meet with administration and the coaches. Part of the visit usually is a film session where the coaches show how they run their offense, film of the recruit playing and how the recruit will be used. (Some extra promises as well)

They talk about skills the recruit has to work on. Ball handling, increase 3 point percentage, etc.. They also talk about improving your body. So a 6'4" player weighing 170, they might him to play in college at 185.

Recruit can then go do they homework in the schools and commit.

The recruit now has Nov to June to work on the skills talked about. Coaches probably check in, but are busy with their season.

Now I agree the coach picked the player based on what was season during the live period and expects they player will keep working.

Now the recruit shows up in June and they are still at 170. Now the school has to get the weight up and improving the skill, instead of the player coming in ready.

Season starts and now the kid is behind. Not strong enough to set screens, box out for rebounding or to defend stronger players.

They were 4 star by all the recruiting services, but work ethic has caught up with.

NU had 2 four star players last year and they did not live up to the hype.

One was put in the game against Wisconsin for 4 minutes. Picked up 3 fouls, shot and airball, had two turnover and gave up an offensive. Coach cannot play him now.

That's why I say it's on both. More the player.

Take out the top 10 teams and the other 300 deal with all the time. Until you find the kids that truly play up to their ability

 

[SDakaGordie]

I’ve believed, for quite a while, that McIntosh balanced the poor coaching on the sidelines with on court coaching. And then, after experiencing success, the egos could not get along and it all crumbled.

While the ego issue may have some truth, your thought on McIntosh has about a snowball’s chance in hell of being true. The direct implication from your statement is that McIntosh (and his teammates) did not listen to the coaches. And now he’s back with the old coach he didn’t listen to?

 

[GatoLouco]

While the ego issue may have some truth, your thought on McIntosh has about a snowball’s chance in hell of being true. The direct implication from your statement is that McIntosh (and his teammates) did not listen to the coaches. And now he’s back with the old coach he didn’t listen to?

Not really.

Jerry Sloan was known for being a control freak who called every play.

Most coaches are not like that. Most coaches give as much freedom to the point guard as they believe in the ability of the PG to make good decisions. It is not uncommon at all for the player to call 90%+ of the plays.

Additionally there are many more ways a court leader coaches. By correcting positioning, movement, on defense and offense, just to mention the obvious ones.

None of this implies, whatsoever, not listening to the coach.

 

[SDakaGordie]

The point guard does not design the plays and the variations on them; the coach does. Every good point guard does what you said above. But/so McIntosh did not do it because Collins could not coach, as you said.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

While the ego issue may have some truth, your thought on McIntosh has about a snowball’s chance in hell of being true. The direct implication from your statement is that McIntosh (and his teammates) did not listen to the coaches. And now he’s back with the old coach he didn’t listen to?

I recall us running the offense, not getting good looks and McIntosh improvising by driving the lane - happened a LOT during the NCAA season - especially in crunch time (when the luck stat is calculated).

On a related note, did it ever occur to you that he (McIntosh) might be in line to take his old coach's job?
Isn't Collins under contract through the spring of 2025?
Plenty of time for McIntosh to get ready.
McIntosh could actually keep Collins in his job, assuming this year isn't a disaster, because he can't be named head coach that quickly.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Honest question - @SDakaGordie would you extend CCC? Let’s assume his contract expired end of this season - do you extend him? If so, how long?

(I bet he does not answer this question - any takers? Reason is obvious. )

 

[SDakaGordie]

I recall us running the offense, not getting good looks and McIntosh improvising by driving the lane - happened a LOT during the NCAA season - especially in crunch time (when the luck stat is calculated).

On a related note, did it ever occur to you that he (McIntosh) might be in line to take his old coach's job?
Isn't Collins under contract through the spring of 2025?
Plenty of time for McIntosh to get ready.
McIntosh could actually keep Collins in his job, assuming this year isn't a disaster, because he can't be named head coach that quickly.

If you watch other basketball, you will note that this happens all the time - point guards drive the lane and create. No coach is ever able to devise plays that eventually get open looks all the time.

I was very happy to see McIntosh come back to NU, as it shows me he loved his time here and thinks he can build his future here. That very rarely means staying with one school in a coaching career. Are you implying he came back because he thought Collins would eventually fail? That would be a huge waste of his time.

 

[xxxbobxxx]

Honest question - @SDakaGordie would you extend CCC? Let’s assume his contract expired end of this season - do you extend him? If so, how long?

(I bet he does not answer this question - any takers? Reason is obvious. )

…

 

[SDakaGordie]

…

I don’t need to and will not answer any more of your questions, as your attitude and demeanor specifically are not worth my time, but you forget I have said numerous times that I would give CCC this year to see if he can show continued improvement. If not, there is enough reason, and certainly enough (some misplaced, in my view) sentiment on behalf of the NU community, to make a change. (Yes, I do consider others’ views). If he does show improvement with W/L record with this team, even despite Gragg’s unprofessional show of “leadership” in publicly pulling the rug out from under him, he will prove he is not a flash in the pan and would deserve to be extended for, I would say, 4 more years.

 

[GatoLouco]

The point guard does not design the plays and the variations on them; the coach does. Every good point guard does what you said above. But/so McIntosh did not do it because Collins could not coach, as you said.

You seem to believe the design of plays is a big deal. I do not.

Literally every (or close to every) coach can design enough plays for a team to be successful against man to man. Against zone, not so much. This is not hyperbole.

What matters is what plays are called at any given time. Who executes them in each position in the play. How the players interpret the plays considering what the defense gives them. All this considering what the other team is doing defensively, matchups, etc.

Surprise, this can all be very fine tuned by a floor leader.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

If you watch other basketball, you will note that this happens all the time - point guards drive the lane and create. No coach is ever able to devise plays that eventually get open looks all the time.

I was very happy to see McIntosh come back to NU, as it shows me he loved his time here and thinks he can build his future here. That very rarely means staying with one school in a coaching career. Are you implying he came back because he thought Collins would eventually fail? That would be a huge waste of his time.

I am obviously just guessing, but it looks like McIntosh wants to make coaching his career, or at least give it a shot.
He's about to turn 28. Assuming he wants to coach and become a head coach, NU is the ideal place for him... The head coach is "on notice" and is not primarily a Northwestern guy - he played for Duke and was with Coach K forever. McIntosh is 100% Northwestern, by all appearances, and directly associated with the most successful year in the last 50. He should get his best opportunity at Northwestern.

Most observers think he has a good understanding of the flow of a game and how to break down a defense. Coaching involves a lot more than that, but its a start.

In high school, Chris Collins was Illinois Mr Basketball, but McIntosh won back to back Indiana state titles... perhaps at hint at the differences between the two people.

McIntosh's father was not an NBA player and general manager, so nothing was handed to him. Thats a plus, in my book.

My hope is that McIntosh can help his old coach adjust his approach to college basketball, then we go from there.

 

[EvanstonCat]

And, as Collins noted in his address at the Big Ten meetings recently, NU has lost an inordinate percentage of close games in recent years. Draw your own conclusions.

He’s the Scott Frost of B1G hoops.

 

[EvanstonCat]

The Illini have the highest winning percentage (.639) and most seasons over .500 (100) in B1G history yet have never had a top 20 recruit.

None of that flying Illini team were a top 20 recruit? Sounds like bull to me.

Kendall Gill, Marcus Liberty, etc… I believe Liberty was.