How is this line only UNC -11???
- Thread starter Fitz51
- Start date
Only time I ever bet against Northwestern Basketball was in 2013 ie Collin's first year against Illinois. We lost to DePaul by 1 and then dropped 3 conference games to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa by 27, 23, and 26. We didn't really have an offense and the defense was really bad. Illinois was favored by about 10 and I took em. I thought no way we'd stay within 10. Illinois was scoring 70-80 points a game. We won 49-43. I was shocked.
I have it at 10. But I also agree with you. On the FB board, I talked about the NU WI being a betting trap game. Line looked too good. Said to me that WI and the over would surprise everyone. Wrong. I guess a few seemingly crazy lines are just good easy money bets. Still, I wouldn't bet the house on UNC.
Posted on the FB board re: Iowa/NEB this week. Would be interested in your thought on that one (in the right thread).
Keep in mind that I fingered both the NU FB and BB games as betting trap games and I was wrong. I said it seemed to me NU and the Under in FB was too good to be true. Guess it was a crazy good line and I could have made a small fortune on the parlay. I also thought UNC -10 (my line w 150 O/U) was too good - UNC all day. Again, I would have made money - but sweat it out. Regardless, neither were trap games.
This is what makes it so frustrating to me as a bettor and why I switched sides. I look at IA v Neb. Vegas gives about 3.5 to the home team. Currently I have the line at IA -1.5 meaning on neutral ground, LV thinks IA -5ish. I think that is way too low. My mind goes to trap game mode.
Now one possible difference: nobody (at least in my modest group) had any interest in NU/WI. Only a couple played the UNC game among all the college, pro and football action yesterday (in a betting world, it was the UNC game - not the NU/UNC game). I am quite confident that I will see much action on the IA/Neb game as IA chases a chance at the national title. And I think the bandwagon will jump all over IA -1.5. So, I think this line will move a few points by kick off and I would be very scared of it.
I feel like chicken little running around screaming "Trap, trap" - but like I said, I switched sides based on past results.
XYZ - I was just messaging with villox about that very thing. That Iowa game looks like "How in the WORLD am I not betting Iowa here?" but several projection models I have seen actually have Nebraska *winning* outright. The old "If the line looks too good to be true, it usually is" mantra. I agree with you that I think the line will go up before gametime, maybe even to -3 or so, at which point a Nebraska ML bet might not be the worst thing in the world...