How likely is Kentucky to win each game in 2016?
- Thread starter wildcatman26
- Start date
This is a tougher schedule. UK needs to win one game it is not projected to. In the end - six is the number. If we are not at six w/o good cause, will a hard-fought five keep all the stakeholders (fans, recruits, commits and coaches) together? Again, if UK gets an upset SEC win and doesn't collapse, and finishes with a solid five, then maybe.
If you add up all the percentages then according to this we should win 5.43 games------so 5 or 6. But I am pretty confident that we will have an upset------or two. The problem there is we can also get upset, so------.
But I think we win 6 or 7, too much talent compared to the old days when we still managed to go bowling, and almost all of those bowl games required UK to win at least one pretty big upset.
I think you are probably selling UK's talent in the old days a little short. The biggest difference in the conference between now and 15 years ago is coaching. When Richt arrived at UGA, after the first couple of years, he was one of the top 3-4 coaches in the league. But I don't think that was the case when he left. Saban was in the league, but he wasn't looked at like he is now when at LSU, BB at Arkansas is a dang good coach, Mullen at OM is a huge upgrade over Grooms, OM ran off a good coach and hired Coach O and Nutt before getting Freeze who is a huge upgrade, SOS lost his drive about as quick I ever saw anyone lose it, 15 years ago he was a monster at UF, UT has struggled replacing Fulmer. You get what I am saying, the level of coaching at the head man's spot and coordinators position is insane in the SEC. Coordinators make lateral movements to get an SEC stop on their resume. Plus Bama has forced everyone to pick up their recruiting. SEC, not so much the East right now, has just gotten so tough the last 15 years.
Number of Wins Depends on how Barker plays at QB and the D-Line ? Lose that first game against Southern Mississippi , And Attendance will start dropping as the season wears on ! It will be a desert in commonwealth stadium If Stoops is under .500 for the last home game !
I know a lot of people think the schedule is harder this year, and I am sure I will get heat for this, but I don't think so. I think this years schedule sets up pretty good. I like that it's not back loaded like the previous two years.
I see 4-2 or 5-1 before the bye. (Florida has been just a play or two better the past couple years, and they have a lot of question marks to be answered).
After the bye I see 3-3. I'm sure most would say 2-4, but I think MSU is going to be lost without their all everything QB.
I see 4-2 or 5-1 before the bye. (Florida has been just a play or two better the past couple years, and they have a lot of question marks to be answered).
After the bye I see 3-3. I'm sure most would say 2-4, but I think MSU is going to be lost without their all everything QB.
I agree. The only reason this schedule looks harder is because of Alabama. But Missouri is down from last year, USC is still down, MSU is down, UGA has first year coach, Vandy is the same team that UK should have beat last year. I think UK has 5 wins at a minimum, but I can see 7-5 with this schedule.
Bama and Tennessee are the only two teams we shouldn't be able to play with tho year.
This is the season for the staff to prove they can coach.
USC,Missouri, and Vandy are not good football teams. If this team cant win these 3 games we have a longer way to go than we thought.
6-6 is the minimal expectation. Anything less is unacceptable to me personally.
I'm my blind faith I think we win 7 and maybe 8.
I really think we beat MSU this year.
Note: This is based on the d-line not being totally god awful. If they are 5-7
This is the season for the staff to prove they can coach.
USC,Missouri, and Vandy are not good football teams. If this team cant win these 3 games we have a longer way to go than we thought.
6-6 is the minimal expectation. Anything less is unacceptable to me personally.
I'm my blind faith I think we win 7 and maybe 8.
I really think we beat MSU this year.
Note: This is based on the d-line not being totally god awful. If they are 5-7
There are lots of different opinions out there. On this board, the many who've predicted a win against Vandy have been wrong four out of the last five years.
Althon predicts Vandy to upset Florida, Ole Miss and Ga. Tech in its SEC upset list. So, there is at least some thought out there that Vandy won't be a pushover.
http://athlonsports.com/college-football/predicting-secs-biggest-upsets-2016
Defense will keep them in games. If it's close down the stretch you have a chance. Big reason a lot of sec media likes missou and vandy better than us is because they play really good D.
People act like just because UK maybe recruiting a little better that every school in SEC has quit. EKU, Vandy, and a blown 21 point lead to Louisville keeps me grounded. The people who continue to chalk up Miss St./ Dan Mullen as a victory year after year totally amazes me.
Well, there are several ways to attempt to answer this question. I say attempt because we are dealing with the future and no one really knows how that turns out.
I'm not sure how JR arrived at his percentages but for most games they track pretty closely with some analytical results.
Bill Connolly (BC) uses a huge amount of data and has an algorithm that calculates a likely win % for each game.
Another approach is to use the historical winning percentage of numerous prior games with the same point spread. Only 2 UK games currently have an opening spread (USM +7 and UofL -18) but we can use Phil Steel's (PS) home field adjusted Plus/Minus ratings to determine likely "point spreads" for other games.
We will identify these numbers as JR, BC and PS. So the win probability of each game by these 3 sources is as follows:
USM
@ FL
NM State
SC
@ AL
Vandy
MSU
@ MO
GA
@ TN
Austin Peay
@ UofL
Peace
I'm not sure how JR arrived at his percentages but for most games they track pretty closely with some analytical results.
Bill Connolly (BC) uses a huge amount of data and has an algorithm that calculates a likely win % for each game.
Another approach is to use the historical winning percentage of numerous prior games with the same point spread. Only 2 UK games currently have an opening spread (USM +7 and UofL -18) but we can use Phil Steel's (PS) home field adjusted Plus/Minus ratings to determine likely "point spreads" for other games.
We will identify these numbers as JR, BC and PS. So the win probability of each game by these 3 sources is as follows:
USM
JR: 70%
BC: 51%
PS: 69% (based on UK-7)
BC: 51%
PS: 69% (based on UK-7)
@ FL
JR: 20%
BC: 12%
PS: 14% (based on UK+11)
BC: 12%
PS: 14% (based on UK+11)
NM State
JR: 97%
BC: 80%
PS: 100% (based on UK-32)
BC: 80%
PS: 100% (based on UK-32)
SC
JR: 57%
BC: 46%
PS: 54% (based on UK-5)
BC: 46%
PS: 54% (based on UK-5)
@ AL
JR: 3%
BC: 3%
PS: 5% (based on UK+23)
BC: 3%
PS: 5% (based on UK+23)
Vandy
JR: 57%
BC: 48%
PS: 54% (based on UK-5)
BC: 48%
PS: 54% (based on UK-5)
MSU
JR: 40%
BC: 24%
PS: 45% (based on UK+2)
BC: 24%
PS: 45% (based on UK+2)
@ MO
JR: 50%
BC: 26%
PS: 29% 54% (based on UK+6)
BC: 26%
PS: 29% 54% (based on UK+6)
GA
JR: 20%
BC: 19%
PS: 35% 54% (based on UK+5)
BC: 19%
PS: 35% 54% (based on UK+5)
@ TN
JR: 5%
BC: 9%
PS: 5% (based on UK+19)
BC: 9%
PS: 5% (based on UK+19)
Austin Peay
JR: 99%
BC: 99%
PS: N/A
BC: 99%
PS: N/A
@ UofL
JR: 25%
BC: 12%
PS: 4% (based on UK+18)
BC: 12%
PS: 4% (based on UK+18)
Peace
I can only assume that you left the 1 off of 14% for the chance that UK beats UL. UK has come out of the gate fast against UL each of te last two years only to be blindsided by a backup QB. UK will be able to go to the wire with UL assuming we don't lose both of our two top runningbacks by halftime. I hope the line does open at 18 and UL fans are stupid enough to lose their *** on it. The game will be no more than a 2 score game either way. It's funny to see UL fans predicting a blowout when your offense struggled pretty much all year
I'm just looking at numbers; I'm not handicapping. [winking]
But an 18 point home favorite has won 96% of such games played per TeamRankings database on same. The 18 points is a very early limited action (i.e., $1000 max) line. FWIW, I expect the "true" betting line to be closer to UK a 12-14 point 'dawg which would mean a 15%-16% chance to win outright.
Peace
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