including. Ten wins would mean 10-8 in season and 0-1 BTT, 9-9 in conference plus 1-1 in BTT or 8-19 and at least two BTT wins. NIT would require one less win. And it is just my guess what it would take. WHAT say others?
Since the start of conference season my target formula has been 10 + 1. So need to go 7-6 the rest of the way now... nice win tonight! 3 wins on the card out of the first 5 rounds of the fight.
WI am not sure with 10-8 that a first round exit will be seen as that bad as you think. Basically the BIG, while not as tough at the top is stronger overall and likely to get more than last years 7 teams in. The 8th team was Mich (with a 10-8 record) But the conference was considered weak so with a couple BTT wins they were invited. Just feel that the conference will be rated stronger this year so wins in conference will have more weight plus our OOC schedule is better.
Nah, I think 10-8 would get us the 5 6 or 7 seed. So we would play the 10, 11/14 winner, or 12/13 winner. If we drop that it wouldn't be great. If we somehow managed to get a double bye in the top 4 teams, then losing to a 5,6 ish team wouldn't be so bad.. then again if we are the 3 or 4 seed in the BTT we hopefully wouldn't be on the bubble.
I checked last year. 10-8 was 8th (Michigan) and they beat us in the 8-9 game. 7 was OSU with an 11-7 record and they ended up in the NIT even after winning one game in BTT. But the conference was considered pretty weak overall. Just saying, it is more balanced this year than any time I can remember and that added strength should mean more invites.
Yeah, but logically and statistically speaking, having the 8th team out of 14 be above .500 is an aberration. Last year's specific results don't really mean much for the distribution of seeds relative to records (ignoring team names). Outside of possible outliers, this distribution of assignments (particularly in the middle) is close to random, especially across years. It was mostly because the bottom 2 teams were 1-17 and 2-16 last year, while the top 2 were 15-3 and 13-5 (a combined difference of 5 wins, which transferred itself onto the 3-8 seeds).
Your scenerio is the path. Only in years when the BIG is really talented would it be possible with only 10 wins.
In 2015, an IN team that went 9-9 in conference went to the dance but a 9-9 IL did not. They won their 10th game in the BTT beating us and lost the next round. IL lost their 1st round game In 2014, with only 12 teams, a 9-9 Iowa went to the dance. They never had the tenth win as they lost to us in BTT. In 2013, a 9-9 IA did not go even with a 10th win in BTT but an 8-10 IL (9th win in BTT) and and 8-10 MN with no BTT win went to the dance. In 2012 no 9-9 teamsbut every one with 10-8 or above went and 8-10 teams all went to NIT. In 2011, four 9-9 teams all went. In 2010, one 10-8 team did not go (NIT for IL) but a 9-9 MN went.
While that is all true, the 10 win threshold was based on how competitive the conference was/is. My opinion is that the conference really is down this year. So 10 wins, in my opinion, isnt going to make it for some teams. If dayton rebounds then that may help. We need to beat purdue or someone solid. The problem is that only msu seems consistent but we dont play them again. Beating rutgers, nebraska, illinois all twice and beating osu and psu once, isnt going to cut it unless we beat wisconsin and purdue or sweep iowa. The 4 best teams in the big are msu minny purdue. We are 0-2 right now. Indiana is on a terrible slide after having a good ooc run but they seem to be falling.
Yeah - to be clear 10 + 1 is my target, but I agree there are lots of moving targets and the picture could certainly change. I don't think that guarantees us in by any means, but I think it puts us on the right side of the bubble in most cases.
Yep exactly. All of us are going to have lots of top 50 wins, but not many top 25 wins. No single category matters that much by itself, it's all of it together.
There are not the top teams but the rest of the conference is as strong and competitive as I have seen it. The conference is very competitive this year.
That's the difference between a 30-year NU fan and a 3-year NU fan. I love that you're with us and so active on the board, but our scars run very deep.
