how teams are winning and losing

[haywood jahblowme]

it really is the inability to hold leads/win close games that has doomed this season. fine line seperating 5 point wins and loses and 5-6 wins in conference to 1-2 wins

or Gato this is the fine line in being lucky and having "mojo" and making the tournament (i.e. players making winning plays) and being stuck outside looking in

ill (8-5)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) -
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 4
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 3
Lose (10 +) -
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


IU (5-7)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 1
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 2
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) – 3
Lose (20+) – 1


Iowa (8-5)
Win (20+) - 2
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 1
Win (5 +) - 5
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) -
Lose (10 +) – 2
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


Maryland (10-3)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 3
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 5
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) –
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) –


UM (6-7)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 3
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 3
Lose (5 +) – 4
Lose (10 +) –
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) –


MSU (9-5)
Win (20+) - 2
Win (15+) - 2
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) -
Win (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


Minn (6-7)

Win (20+) -
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 3
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) -
Lose (5 +) - 4
Lose (10 +) –
Lose (15 +) – 2
Lose (20+) – 1


Neb (2-11)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) -
Win (5 +) -
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 3
Lose (5 +) - 3
Lose (10 +) – 6
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) – 1


NU (1-12)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) -
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 3
Lose (5 +) - 3
Lose (10 +) – 4
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 2


OSU (6-7)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 +) -
Lose (10 +) – 5
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) –


PSU (9-4)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 3
Win (5 +) - 4
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) -
Lose (5 +) - 2
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


PU (7-7)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) -
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) – 2
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


Rutgers (8-6)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -1
Win (10 +) - 1
Win (5 +) - 4
Win (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 4
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) –


Wisconsin (7-6)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) - 4
Lose (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) –

 

[GatoLouco]

You are right. It is a fine line. But one that is very, very hard to jump over.

It's the fine line that makes teams be so different from one year to the next. So many examples could be given. At a high level, little differences are what makes a huge difference.

Not sure how to do it without spending a lot of time, but, statistically, we could see what the margin of scoring is for teams in conference games. Throw away the largest win and loss, so they don't skew the numbers too much. And what you probably get is not that big a difference between teams.

 

[freewillie07]

It’s great to have actual numbers backing this up.

I’m admittedly spending less time around here because of all the negativity, but I don’t think NU is nearly as far away from the middle of the conference as the record indicates. I look forward to seeing what the guys can do with a fresh start and a chip on their shoulders next year.

 

[NURoseBowl]

You are right. It is a fine line. But one that is very, very hard to jump over.

It's the fine line that makes teams be so different from one year to the next. So many examples could be given. At a high level, little differences are what makes a huge difference.

Not sure how to do it without spending a lot of time, but, statistically, we could see what the margin of scoring is for teams in conference games. Throw away the largest win and loss, so they don't skew the numbers too much. And what you probably get is not that big a difference between teams.

Exactly. And this is what makes the Big Ten exponentially better than any conference with one or two Top-5-type teams and a big drop-off after that. Not even close.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Nebraska’s numbers don’t add up.

 

[ricko6543211]

it really is the inability to hold leads/win close games that has doomed this season. fine line seperating 5 point wins and loses and 5-6 wins in conference to 1-2 wins

or Gato this is the fine line in being lucky and having "mojo" and making the tournament (i.e. players making winning plays) and being stuck outside looking in

ill (8-5)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) -
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 4
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 3
Lose (10 +) -
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


IU (5-7)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 1
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 2
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) – 3
Lose (20+) – 1


Iowa (8-5)
Win (20+) - 2
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 1
Win (5 +) - 5
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) -
Lose (10 +) – 2
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


Maryland (10-3)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 3
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 5
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) –
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) –


UM (6-7)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 3
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 3
Lose (5 +) – 4
Lose (10 +) –
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) –


MSU (9-5)
Win (20+) - 2
Win (15+) - 2
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) -
Win (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


Minn (6-7)

Win (20+) -
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 3
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) -
Lose (5 +) - 4
Lose (10 +) –
Lose (15 +) – 2
Lose (20+) – 1


Neb (2-11)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) -
Win (5 +) -
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 3
Lose (5 +) - 3
Lose (10 +) – 6
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) – 1


NU (1-12)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) -
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) -
Lose (5 –) - 3
Lose (5 +) - 3
Lose (10 +) – 4
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 2


OSU (6-7)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 2
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 +) -
Lose (10 +) – 5
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) –


PSU (9-4)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 3
Win (5 +) - 4
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) -
Lose (5 +) - 2
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


PU (7-7)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) - 1
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 –) -
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) – 2
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) – 1


Rutgers (8-6)
Win (20+) -
Win (15+) -1
Win (10 +) - 1
Win (5 +) - 4
Win (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 –) - 1
Lose (5 +) - 4
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) –
Lose (20+) –


Wisconsin (7-6)
Win (20+) - 1
Win (15+) -
Win (10 +) - 2
Win (5 +) - 1
Win (5 –) - 4
Lose (5 –) - 2
Lose (5 +) - 1
Lose (10 +) – 1
Lose (15 +) – 1
Lose (20+) –

Great data, thanks for pulling it. Some quick reactions:
1. MSU may be 2 games back at 9-5, but they have 6 wins of 10+, next best is 4 in the conference (Maryland has only 3) - this is part of why KenPom type stats still like them.
2. Rutgers plays a LOT of close games. 6-5 in games of 10 pts or less, 8-6 overall.
3. Mich is the only other team that is near as bad as us in close games at 3-7 of 10 or less, we are 1-6. (and Neb which shows as 0-6 above but their 2 wins are missing, and they beat Iowa by 6 so it's probably 1-5)
4. Good teams win close games... no coincidence that the top teams in conference (Maryland, MSU, IL, PSU, etc) all have winning records in close games.
- Btw the Purdue stuff also looks funky, but regardless thanks for pulling the info - the effort must have taken a lot of time and it is interesting data to look at these distributions.

[But PS haywood this definitely does not show a fine line between us being terrible and us being good enough to make the tournament. We are also 0-6 in games decided by 10+, which means 3.5 - 9.5 if you split the <10 contests. That is still 'very bad' and in 13th in the conference. Just slightly less bad than the 'terrible' we currently have.]